Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
BUF
54.7%
DEN
45.3%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Josh Allen · BUFQB Index componentsBo Nix · DEN
46 · C
Index
44 · D
27.6
Attempts / gm
31.5
6.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.1%
65.9%
Completion
QB Index · vs DEN
Josh Allen
BUF · 5 games, 138 attempts
46
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
26th of 34
27.6 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
6th of 34
9.1 yards per attempt · 65.9% completions · 0.286 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
24th of 32
DEN has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 6 games
≈ 233 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened +1.5 on Sat, Sep 26, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
The total
Totals of 46.5 went over 121 of 239 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
60.3%
9.1
Yards / att
5.6
261.8
Air yards / gm
154.8
0.286
EPA / dropback
-0.076
+4.4
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.1
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5275.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs BUF
Bo Nix
DEN · 6 games, 189 attempts
44
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
16th of 34
31.5 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 4.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
29th of 34
5.6 yards per attempt · 60.3% completions · -0.076 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
12th of 32
BUF has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 168 yards30 attempts × 5.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 3 of 6175.5 yards in 3 of 6200.5 yards in 2 of 6
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Khalil Shakir19.5% target share · 8.2 PPR last 4
DJ Moore15.0% target share · 9.1 PPR last 4
Keon Coleman14.3% target share · 12.1 PPR last 4
Jaylen Waddle22.5% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Courtland Sutton16.2% target share · 5.7 PPR last 4
Pat Bryant7.5% target share · 8 PPR last 4
James Cook67.4% of team carries · 19.8 PPR last 4
Ray Davis2.8% of team carries · 1.6 PPR last 4
Ty Johnson0.7% of team carries · 7.8 PPR last 3
J.K. Dobbins57.0% of team carries · 10.6 PPR last 4
Dalton Kincaid16.5% target share · 7.9 PPR last 4
Dawson Knox6.8% target share · 3.7 PPR last 4
Evan Engram11.0% target share · 3.6 PPR last 4
Nate Adkins2.9% target share · 6.9 PPR last 3
