Week 150.5 points short of 3
New England PatriotsatKansas City Chiefs
Monday, Dec 21, 8:15 PM ET
Opened
-2.5
First seen Sep 24
Now
-2.5
Unmoved
Total
45.5
Prices archived
6
1 spread · 1 total
Nothing to shop yet
Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
NE
43.6%
KC
56.4%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
4.3%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.3%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
NE skill corpswho they faceKC skill corps
102.0
Receivers
126.5yds/gm allowed · vs KC / vs NE
WR statements like this held 53.3%· CI 43.9–62.4, no measured edge
DeMario Douglas17.3% target share · 4.5 PPR last 2
Mack Hollins13.5% target share · 6.4 PPR last 2
Romeo Doubs13.5% target share · 6.3 PPR last 2
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -2.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 89 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
The total
Totals of 45.5 went over 119 of 235 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
