Week 15
Denver BroncosatLas Vegas Raiders
Sunday, Dec 20, 4:25 PM ET
Opened
+4.5
First seen Sep 24
Now
+4.5
Unmoved
Total
41.5
Prices archived
6
1 spread · 1 total
Nothing to shop yet
Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
DEN
67.0%
LV
33.0%
Teams the market priced at 65–70% won 506 of 752 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.5%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.5%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
DEN skill corpswho they faceLV skill corps
140.0
Receivers
101.5yds/gm allowed · vs LV / vs DEN
statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5
Jaylen Waddle23.2% target share · 11.5 PPR last 2
Courtland Sutton16.1% target share · 4.3 PPR last 2
Pat Bryant12.5% target share · 4.9 PPR last 2
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened +4.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 88 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 4.5 covered 127 of 254 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 169 of 254.
The total
Totals of 41.5 went over 126 of 264 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
