Week 15Sitting on 3 — the most valuable number it can hold
Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans
Sunday, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET
Opened
-3
First seen Sep 24
Now
-3
Unmoved
Total
43.5
Prices archived
6
1 spread · 1 total
Nothing to shop yet
Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
JAX
40.6%
HOU
59.4%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
4.5%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.5%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
JAX skill corpswho they faceHOU skill corps
184.5
Receivers
159.0yds/gm allowed · vs HOU / vs JAX
WR statements like this held next week 60%· CI 50.4–68.9
Parker Washington36.7% target share · 18.1 PPR last 2
Brian Thomas Jr.22.4% target share · 7 PPR last 2
Xavier Hutchinson17.2% target share · 6.5 PPR last 2
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -3 on Thu, Sep 24, 87 days before kickoff and has not moved since — 31 hours sitting on 3.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 3 covered 481 of 1,010 games.
The range covers a coin flip. 102 pushed and are excluded — at whole numbers that matters more than it sounds.
They won outright in 648 of 1,112.
The total
Totals of 43.5 went over 162 of 326 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
