Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
NO
29.0%
CIN
71.0%
Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.4%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.4%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Tyler Shough · NOQB Index componentsJoe Burrow · CIN
67 · B+
Index
74 · A
41.0
Attempts / gm
37.8
6.0%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.5%
66.8%
Completion
QB Index · vs CIN
Tyler Shough
NO · 5 games, 205 attempts
67
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
2nd of 34
41.0 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 6.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
22nd of 34
6.3 yards per attempt · 66.8% completions · -0.023 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
13th of 32
CIN has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 244 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -6.5 on Mon, Aug 31, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 6.5 covered 151 of 325 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 234 of 325.
The total
Totals of 48.5 went over 95 of 182 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
71.4%
6.3
Yards / att
7.2
326.2
Air yards / gm
270.4
-0.023
EPA / dropback
0.166
+1.8
CPOE
completion % over expected
+5.4
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 4 of 5250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs NO
Joe Burrow
CIN · 5 games, 189 attempts
74
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
7th of 34
37.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.2 yards per attempt · 71.4% completions · 0.166 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
10th of 32
NO has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 260 yards36 attempts × 7.2 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 27.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 3 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Chris Olave27.6% target share · 17.6 PPR last 4
Devaughn Vele18.9% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Bryce Lance8.7% target share · 0.9 PPR last 4
Tee Higgins23.1% target share · 16.6 PPR last 4
Ja'Marr Chase20.4% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Dohnte Meyers9.7% target share · 6.1 PPR last 4
Travis Etienne27.2% of team carries · 10.3 PPR last 3
Kendre Miller25.4% of team carries · 6 PPR last 4
Alvin Kamara24.6% of team carries · 9.4 PPR last 4
Chase Brown64.5% of team carries · 11.6 PPR last 4
Juwan Johnson16.3% target share · 12.8 PPR last 4
Noah Fant6.6% target share · 8.6 PPR last 4
Mike Gesicki9.1% target share · 13 PPR last 4
Tanner Hudson3.8% target share · 4.1 PPR last 4
