Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
ARI
17.7%
KC
82.3%
Teams the market priced at 80–85% won 267 of 324 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.7%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.7%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jacoby Brissett · ARIQB Index componentsPatrick Mahomes · KC
49 · C
Index
70 · A
39.8
Attempts / gm
32.0
5.7%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.5%
66.3%
Completion
QB Index · vs KC
Jacoby Brissett
ARI · 5 games, 199 attempts
49
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
4th of 34
39.8 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 5.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
25th of 34
5.6 yards per attempt · 66.3% completions · -0.020 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
28th of 32
KC has allowed 6.2 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 210 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -11.5 on Mon, Aug 24, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 11.5 covered 22 of 42 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 32 of 42.
The total
Totals of 44.5 went over 129 of 294 times.
The range clears a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
64.1%
5.6
Yards / att
8.1
284.2
Air yards / gm
222.8
-0.020
EPA / dropback
0.192
+1.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
+0.8
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 16.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 3 of 5275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 0 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs ARI
Patrick Mahomes
KC · 4 games, 128 attempts
70
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
15th of 34
32.0 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
13th of 34
8.1 yards per attempt · 64.1% completions · 0.192 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
1st of 32
ARI has allowed 9.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 248 yards31 attempts × 8.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 28.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Michael Wilson26.3% target share · 13.4 PPR last 4
Kendrick Bourne11.3% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
Jalen Brooks4.1% target share · 0.9 PPR last 4
Xavier Worthy18.5% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Rashee Rice14.3% target share · 12.7 PPR last 3
Tyquan Thornton12.6% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
Jeremiyah Love57.8% of team carries · 9.5 PPR last 4
Tyler Allgeier30.2% of team carries · 6.3 PPR last 4
Kenneth Walker III78.4% of team carries · 27.5 PPR last 4
Emmett Johnson14.4% of team carries · 4.5 PPR last 4
Trey McBride28.9% target share · 16.6 PPR last 4
Elijah Higgins4.1% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4
Travis Kelce18.5% target share · 13.2 PPR last 4
Noah Gray6.7% target share · 3 PPR last 4