Sunday, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. No games played yet this season for at least one side, so those figures are last season’s. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
TB · 17 games, 543 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
31.9 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 54% pass · sacked on 6.2% of dropbacks
6.8 yards per attempt · 63.2% completions · 0.001 EPA per dropback
DET has allowed 7.2 yards per attempt across 17 games
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
No prices archived for this market yet.
Over line.
No prices archived for this market yet.
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
DET · 17 games, 578 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
34.0 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 57% pass · sacked on 6.2% of dropbacks
7.9 yards per attempt · 68.0% completions · 0.173 EPA per dropback
TB has allowed 7.6 yards per attempt across 17 games
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.