Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions

Sunday, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET

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Prices archived

0 spread · 0 total

Head to head

Baker Mayfield · TBQB Index componentsJared Goff · DET

50 · C

Index

72 · A

32.0

Attempts / gm

38.2

11.9%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

5.4%

63.5%

Completion

67.0%

6.4

Yards / att

7.8

284.0

Air yards / gm

302.4

-0.274

EPA / dropback

0.323

+1.1

CPOE

completion % over expected

+1.7

Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.

TB skill corpswho they faceDET skill corps

194.8

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs DET / vs TB

138.8

WR statements like this held next week 60%· CI 50.4–68.9

Emeka Egbuka22.6% target share · 10.5 PPR last 4
Chris Godwin Jr.14.4% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Ted Hurst III11.0% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

QB Index · vs DET

Baker Mayfield

TB · 3 games, 96 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

15th of 34

32.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 11.9% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

26th of 34

6.4 yards per attempt · 63.5% completions · -0.274 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

9th of 32

DET has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 170 yards

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

No prices archived for this market yet.

The total

Over line.

No prices archived for this market yet.

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

30.3% target share · 18.9 PPR last 4

Jameson Williams15.4% target share · 12.3 PPR last 4

Isaac TeSlaa10.1% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4

84.4

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs DET / vs TB

60.0

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Bucky Irving57.9% of team carries · 14.6 PPR last 4
Kenny Gainwell12.8% of team carries · 6 PPR last 4
Sean Tucker6.0% of team carries · 4.4 PPR last 2

RB statements like this held 51.9%· CI 42.4–61.3, no measured edge

Jahmyr Gibbs82.0% of team carries · 30 PPR last 4
Sione Vaki11.7% of team carries · 2.9 PPR last 4

109.0

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs DET / vs TB

60.2

TE statements like this held 55.9%· CI 46.2–65.1, no measured edge

Cade Otton18.5% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4

Sam LaPorta19.7% target share · 16.7 PPR last 4
Brock Wright3.2% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4

Where this ranking comes from

27 attempts × 6.4 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

200.5 yards in 2 of 3225.5 yards in 0 of 3250.5 yards in 0 of 3

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.

QB Index · vs TB

Jared Goff

DET · 5 games, 191 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

6th of 34

38.2 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 60% pass · sacked on 5.4% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

10th of 34

7.8 yards per attempt · 67.0% completions · 0.323 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

16th of 32

TB has allowed 7.1 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 281 yards36 attempts × 7.8 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5