Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
LAC
44.9%
BAL
55.1%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
4.2%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.2%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Justin Herbert · LACQB Index componentsLamar Jackson · BAL
29 · F
Index
53 · B
28.6
Attempts / gm
24.0
10.6%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.8%
59.4%
Completion
QB Index · vs BAL
Justin Herbert
LAC · 5 games, 143 attempts
29
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
24th of 34
28.6 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 49% pass · sacked on 10.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
28th of 34
6.6 yards per attempt · 59.4% completions · -0.193 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
19th of 32
BAL has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 169 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -2.5 on Wed, Aug 19, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
The total
Totals of 48.5 went over 95 of 182 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
70.8%
6.6
Yards / att
10.1
240.6
Air yards / gm
243.0
-0.193
EPA / dropback
0.363
-4.8
CPOE
completion % over expected
+8.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 4 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs LAC
Lamar Jackson
BAL · 4 games, 96 attempts
53
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
31st of 34
24.0 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 46% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
1st of 34
10.1 yards per attempt · 70.8% completions · 0.363 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
14th of 32
LAC has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 257 yards26 attempts × 10.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 25.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 4225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Tre Harris18.1% target share · 8.1 PPR last 4
Quentin Johnston13.8% target share · 4.5 PPR last 4
Ladd McConkey12.3% target share · 9.1 PPR last 4
Zay Flowers23.1% target share · 20.4 PPR last 4
Rashod Bateman15.7% target share · 11.3 PPR last 4
Devontez Walker5.2% target share · 4.4 PPR last 4
Omarion Hampton49.7% of team carries · 10.3 PPR last 4
Keaton Mitchell22.4% of team carries · 9 PPR last 4
Kimani Vidal9.5% of team carries · 6.8 PPR last 4
Derrick Henry72.6% of team carries · 19.1 PPR last 4
Oronde Gadsden II11.6% target share · 4.7 PPR last 4
David Njoku5.8% target share · 6.4 PPR last 2
Charlie Kolar5.1% target share · 3.3 PPR last 3
Mark Andrews23.1% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
