Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
ARI
14.1%
SEA
85.9%
Teams the market priced at 85–90% won 191 of 213 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 2.5 points.
4.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jacoby Brissett · ARIQB Index componentsSam Darnold · SEA
46 · C
Index
51 · C
39.8
Attempts / gm
29.8
5.7%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
8.6%
66.3%
QB Index · vs SEA
Jacoby Brissett
ARI · 5 games, 199 attempts
46
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
4th of 34
39.8 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 5.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
25th of 34
5.6 yards per attempt · 66.3% completions · -0.020 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
32nd of 32
SEA has allowed 5.3 yards per attempt across 6 games
≈ 210 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -13.5 on Tue, Aug 11, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 13.5 covered 22 of 61 games.
The range clears a coin flip.
They won outright in 50 of 61.
The total
Totals of 45.5 went over 119 of 235 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
60.4%
5.6
Yards / att
6.9
284.2
Air yards / gm
215.4
-0.020
EPA / dropback
-0.135
+1.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
-4.6
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 16.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 3 of 5275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 0 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs ARI
Sam Darnold
SEA · 5 games, 149 attempts
51
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
20th of 34
29.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 55% pass · sacked on 8.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
6.9 yards per attempt · 60.4% completions · -0.135 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
1st of 32
ARI has allowed 9.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 209 yards30 attempts × 6.9 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 29.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Michael Wilson26.3% target share · 13.4 PPR last 4
Kendrick Bourne11.3% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
Jalen Brooks4.1% target share · 0.9 PPR last 4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba34.9% target share · 24 PPR last 4
Rashid Shaheed14.8% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Cooper Kupp13.2% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Jeremiyah Love57.8% of team carries · 9.5 PPR last 4
Tyler Allgeier30.2% of team carries · 6.3 PPR last 4
Emanuel Wilson54.0% of team carries · 11.7 PPR last 4
George Holani19.3% of team carries · 6.7 PPR last 4
Trey McBride28.9% target share · 16.6 PPR last 4
Elijah Higgins4.1% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4
AJ Barner12.7% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4