Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
CHI
34.1%
SEA
65.9%
Teams the market priced at 65–70% won 506 of 752 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.7%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.7%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Tyson Bagent · CHIQB Index componentsSam Darnold · SEA
13 · F
Index
50 · C
21.3
Attempts / gm
29.8
5.9%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
8.6%
65.6%
Completion
QB Index · vs SEA
Tyson Bagent
CHI · 3 games, 64 attempts
13
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
32nd of 34
21.3 attempts per game · team runs 71 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 5.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 34
6.4 yards per attempt · 65.6% completions · -0.077 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
32nd of 32
SEA has allowed 5.3 yards per attempt across 6 games
≈ 207 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -4.5 on Thu, Aug 6, 89 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 4.5 covered 127 of 254 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 169 of 254.
The total
Totals of 47.5 went over 104 of 217 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
60.4%
6.4
Yards / att
6.9
144.3
Air yards / gm
215.4
-0.077
EPA / dropback
-0.135
+1.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
-4.6
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
100.5 yards in 1 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs CHI
Sam Darnold
SEA · 5 games, 149 attempts
50
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
20th of 34
29.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 55% pass · sacked on 8.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
6.9 yards per attempt · 60.4% completions · -0.135 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
2nd of 32
CHI has allowed 8.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 209 yards30 attempts × 6.9 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 26.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Luther Burden III21.7% target share · 11.6 PPR last 4
Rome Odunze18.0% target share · 8.8 PPR last 4
Kalif Raymond16.8% target share · 9 PPR last 4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba34.9% target share · 24 PPR last 4
Rashid Shaheed14.8% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Cooper Kupp13.2% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
D'Andre Swift45.9% of team carries · 12.1 PPR last 4
Kyle Monangai35.3% of team carries · 14.8 PPR last 4
Roschon Johnson5.3% of team carries · 4.1 PPR last 3
Emanuel Wilson54.0% of team carries · 11.7 PPR last 4
Colston Loveland14.3% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Cole Kmet5.6% target share · 1.3 PPR last 4
Sam Roush3.1% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4
AJ Barner12.7% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4
