Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
KC
46.3%
SEA
53.7%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
3.8%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 103.8%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Patrick Mahomes · KCQB Index componentsSam Darnold · SEA
45 · C
Index
29 · F
32.0
Attempts / gm
29.8
4.5%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
8.6%
64.1%
Completion
QB Index · vs SEA
Patrick Mahomes
KC · 4 games, 128 attempts
45
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
15th of 34
32.0 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
13th of 34
8.1 yards per attempt · 64.1% completions · 0.192 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
32nd of 32
SEA has allowed 5.3 yards per attempt across 6 games
≈ 248 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 4 prices on record
Open
Opened -3 on Wed, Jul 29, 89 days before kickoff.
Move
3 reprices since, 2.5 points of movement in all. It sits -2.5 — the favourite is 0.5 points smaller than at the open. It ranged from -3 to -1.5 along the way, retracing 2 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — -2.5 to -1.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 8 PM ET.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 77 days, then left it on Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record
Open
Opened 45.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 89 days before kickoff.
Move
2 reprices since, 3 points of movement in all. It sits 42.5 — 3 points lower than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
2 points at once — 44.5 to 42.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
The total
Totals of 42.5 went over 116 of 221 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
60.4%
8.1
Yards / att
6.9
222.8
Air yards / gm
215.4
0.192
EPA / dropback
-0.135
+0.8
CPOE
completion % over expected
-4.6
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 20.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs KC
Sam Darnold
SEA · 5 games, 149 attempts
29
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
20th of 34
29.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 55% pass · sacked on 8.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
6.9 yards per attempt · 60.4% completions · -0.135 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
28th of 32
KC has allowed 6.2 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 209 yards30 attempts × 6.9 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Xavier Worthy18.5% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Rashee Rice14.3% target share · 12.7 PPR last 3
Tyquan Thornton12.6% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba34.9% target share · 24 PPR last 4
Rashid Shaheed14.8% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Cooper Kupp13.2% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Kenneth Walker III78.4% of team carries · 27.5 PPR last 4
Emmett Johnson14.4% of team carries · 4.5 PPR last 4
Emanuel Wilson54.0% of team carries · 11.7 PPR last 4
George Holani19.3% of team carries · 6.7 PPR last 4
Travis Kelce18.5% target share · 13.2 PPR last 4
Noah Gray6.7% target share · 3 PPR last 4
AJ Barner12.7% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4