Sitting on 3 — the most valuable number it can hold
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
GB
40.3%
DET
59.7%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
4.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jordan Love · GBQB Index componentsJared Goff · DET
67 · B+
Index
65 · B+
37.0
Attempts / gm
38.2
5.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
5.4%
60.5%
Completion
QB Index · vs DET
Jordan Love
GB · 5 games, 185 attempts
67
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
9th of 34
37.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 65% pass · sacked on 5.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
17th of 34
7.6 yards per attempt · 60.5% completions · 0.110 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
9th of 32
DET has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 267 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened -1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 88 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1.5 points of movement in all. It sits -3 — the favourite is 1.5 points bigger than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1.5 points at once — -1.5 to -3 on Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
Held 3
It has sat on 3 for 5 days.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened 51.5 on Tue, Oct 13, 12 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It sits 52.5 — 1 point higher than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Oct 14, 2 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — 51.5 to 52.5 on Wed, Oct 14, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 3 covered 481 of 1,010 games.
The range covers a coin flip. 102 pushed and are excluded — at whole numbers that matters more than it sounds.
They won outright in 648 of 1,112.
The total
Totals of 52.5 went over 22 of 46 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
67.0%
7.6
Yards / att
7.8
322.2
Air yards / gm
302.4
0.110
EPA / dropback
0.323
-2.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
+1.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.8 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 3 of 5325.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs GB
Jared Goff
DET · 5 games, 191 attempts
65
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
6th of 34
38.2 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 60% pass · sacked on 5.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
10th of 34
7.8 yards per attempt · 67.0% completions · 0.323 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
25th of 32
GB has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 281 yards36 attempts × 7.8 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 27.8 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
This line sits on 3, which was the exact final margin in 1,046 of 6,967 games.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Matthew Golden24.7% target share · 15.7 PPR last 4
Christian Watson22.0% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Skyy Moore7.7% target share · 2.6 PPR last 4
Amon-Ra St. Brown30.3% target share · 18.9 PPR last 4
Jameson Williams15.4% target share · 12.3 PPR last 4
Isaac TeSlaa10.1% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
MarShawn Lloyd44.4% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Kaleb Johnson30.0% of team carries · 2.6 PPR last 4
Chris Brooks16.7% of team carries · 3.1 PPR last 4
Jahmyr Gibbs82.0% of team carries · 30 PPR last 4
Tucker Kraft15.9% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4
Jonnu Smith3.8% target share · 4.5 PPR last 3
Sam LaPorta19.7% target share · 16.7 PPR last 4
Brock Wright3.2% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4