Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
CLE
52.4%
TEN
47.6%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Deshaun Watson · CLEQB Index componentsCam Ward · TEN
52 · C
Index
38 · D
29.6
Attempts / gm
31.0
11.4%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.1%
64.2%
Completion
QB Index · vs TEN
Deshaun Watson
CLE · 5 games, 148 attempts
52
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
21st of 34
29.6 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 54% pass · sacked on 11.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
20th of 34
6.8 yards per attempt · 64.2% completions · 0.024 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
6th of 32
TEN has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 180 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened -3 on Wed, Jul 29, 88 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 4.5 points of movement in all. It sits +1.5 — the favourite changed sides.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
4.5 points at once — -3 to +1.5 on Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 77 days, then left it on Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record
Open
Opened 41.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 88 days before kickoff.
Move
2 reprices since, 5 points of movement in all. It sits 36.5 — 5 points lower than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
4 points at once — 41.5 to 37.5 on Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
The total
Totals of 36.5 went over 64 of 126 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
63.2%
6.8
Yards / att
5.8
211.8
Air yards / gm
215.8
0.024
EPA / dropback
-0.185
-1.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
+2.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 19.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs CLE
Cam Ward
TEN · 5 games, 155 attempts
38
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
17th of 34
31.0 attempts per game · team runs 53 plays at 59% pass · sacked on 6.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
5.8 yards per attempt · 63.2% completions · -0.185 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
21st of 32
CLE has allowed 6.9 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 168 yards29 attempts × 5.8 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 17.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 4 of 5175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Denzel Boston20.3% target share · 13.8 PPR last 4
KC Concepcion19.6% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Jerry Jeudy10.1% target share · 4 PPR last 4
Carnell Tate25.7% target share · 10.2 PPR last 4
Wan'Dale Robinson20.8% target share · 10.7 PPR last 4
Elic Ayomanor8.3% target share · 4.2 PPR last 4
Quinshon Judkins62.4% of team carries · 12.3 PPR last 4
Raheim Sanders7.7% of team carries · 4.3 PPR last 4
Tony Pollard63.6% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Tyjae Spears15.9% of team carries · 5.2 PPR last 4
Harold Fannin Jr.18.2% target share · 11.9 PPR last 4
Gunnar Helm9.7% target share · 2.5 PPR last 4
Daniel Bellinger4.9% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4