Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
IND
30.5%
MIN
69.5%
Teams the market priced at 65–70% won 506 of 752 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Daniel Jones · INDQB Index componentsKyler Murray · MIN
38 · D
Index
44 · C
35.2
Attempts / gm
25.3
4.9%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
8.2%
61.4%
Completion
QB Index · vs MIN
Daniel Jones
IND · 5 games, 176 attempts
38
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
11th of 34
35.2 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 4.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
29th of 34
5.8 yards per attempt · 61.4% completions · -0.130 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
26th of 32
MIN has allowed 6.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 194 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 4 prices on record
Open
Opened -3 on Wed, Jul 29, 88 days before kickoff.
Move
3 reprices since, 3.5 points of movement in all. It sits -5.5 — the favourite is 2.5 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -6 to -3 along the way, retracing 1 point of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
2.5 points at once — -3 to -5.5 on Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 77 days, then left it on Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 4 prices on record
Open
Opened 47.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 88 days before kickoff.
Move
3 reprices since, 6 points of movement in all. It sits 41.5 — 6 points lower than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
4 points at once — 47.5 to 43.5 on Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 5.5 covered 125 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 178 of 275.
The total
Totals of 41.5 went over 126 of 264 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
68.3%
5.8
Yards / att
6.6
256.0
Air yards / gm
158.5
-0.130
EPA / dropback
-0.076
-2.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
+5.4
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 18.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs IND
Kyler Murray
MIN · 4 games, 101 attempts
44
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
30th of 34
25.3 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 8.2% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
18th of 34
6.6 yards per attempt · 68.3% completions · -0.076 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
4th of 32
IND has allowed 8.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 169 yards26 attempts × 6.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 2 of 4225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 0 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Josh Downs20.5% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4
Keenan Allen17.5% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4
Laquon Treadwell11.4% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
Justin Jefferson19.2% target share · 15.9 PPR last 4
Jordan Addison16.9% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Myles Price5.4% target share · 3 PPR last 4
Jonathan Taylor74.8% of team carries · 18.1 PPR last 4
Seth McGowan12.6% of team carries · 2.3 PPR last 4
Aaron Jones67.8% of team carries · 15.1 PPR last 4
Jordan Mason10.5% of team carries · 11.9 PPR last 1
Tyler Warren21.7% target share · 14.9 PPR last 4
T.J. Hockenson20.8% target share · 8.9 PPR last 4
Gavin Bartholomew5.4% target share · 4.9 PPR last 2
Josh Oliver3.8% target share · 2.5 PPR last 3