Crossed 7 since opening0.5 points short of 101 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
HOU-8.5FanDuel
NYG+9.5DraftKings
Over41.5DraftKings
Under43.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
NYG
21.4%
HOU
78.6%
Teams the market priced at 75–80% won 434 of 552 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 1.2 points.
4.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jameis Winston · NYGQB Index componentsC.J. Stroud · HOU
46 · C
Index
61 · B+
33.0
Attempts / gm
37.0
7.7%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.0%
57.6%
Completion
QB Index · vs HOU
Jameis Winston
NYG · 4 games, 132 attempts
46
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
13th of 34
33.0 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 7.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
28th of 34
6.1 yards per attempt · 57.6% completions · -0.057 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
15th of 32
HOU has allowed 7.2 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 187 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record
Open
Opened -5.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 88 days before kickoff.
Move
2 reprices since, 4 points of movement in all. It sits -9.5 — the favourite is 4 points bigger than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
2.5 points at once — -7 to -9.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 8 PM ET.
Held 7
It sat on 7 for 5 days, then left it on Sun, Oct 18, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened 43.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 88 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 2 points of movement in all. It sits 41.5 — 2 points lower than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
2 points at once — 43.5 to 41.5 on Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 9.5 covered 75 of 154 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 124 of 154.
The total
Totals of 41.5 went over 126 of 264 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
64.3%
6.1
Yards / att
7.6
317.5
Air yards / gm
355.4
-0.057
EPA / dropback
0.089
-7.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
+4.0
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 16.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs NYG
C.J. Stroud
HOU · 5 games, 185 attempts
61
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
9th of 34
37.0 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 61% pass · sacked on 7.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.6 yards per attempt · 64.3% completions · 0.089 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
23rd of 32
NYG has allowed 6.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 262 yards35 attempts × 7.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 25.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Malik Nabers28.0% target share · 15.3 PPR last 4
Darnell Mooney10.4% target share · 3.8 PPR last 4
Malachi Fields10.4% target share · 6.5 PPR last 4
Xavier Hutchinson18.1% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Nico Collins14.6% target share · 20.9 PPR last 3
Kayshon Boutte10.5% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Cam Skattebo57.4% of team carries · 9.3 PPR last 4
Najee Harris19.9% of team carries · 2.8 PPR last 4
Devin Singletary6.4% of team carries · 7.4 PPR last 2
David Montgomery45.2% of team carries · 4.2 PPR last 4
Isaiah Likely29.3% target share · 14.4 PPR last 4
Theo Johnson5.5% target share · 3.9 PPR last 4
Dalton Schultz18.1% target share · 10.2 PPR last 4
Foster Moreau7.0% target share · 4.5 PPR last 4