Sitting on 3 — the most valuable number it can hold
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
CIN
41.6%
BAL
58.4%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
4.4%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.4%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Joe Burrow · CINQB Index componentsLamar Jackson · BAL
67 · B+
Index
54 · B
37.8
Attempts / gm
24.0
4.5%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.8%
71.4%
QB Index · vs BAL
Joe Burrow
CIN · 5 games, 189 attempts
67
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
7th of 34
37.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.2 yards per attempt · 71.4% completions · 0.166 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
19th of 32
BAL has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 260 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened -3.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 88 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 0.5 points of movement in all. It sits -3 — the favourite is 0.5 points smaller than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
0.5 points at once — -3.5 to -3 on Sun, Oct 18, 8 PM ET.
Held 3
It has sat on 3 for 11 hours.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record
Open
Opened 52.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 88 days before kickoff.
Move
2 reprices since, 2 points of movement in all. It sits 50.5 — 2 points lower than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — 52.5 to 51.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 3 covered 481 of 1,010 games.
The range covers a coin flip. 102 pushed and are excluded — at whole numbers that matters more than it sounds.
They won outright in 648 of 1,112.
The total
Totals of 50.5 went over 48 of 86 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
70.8%
7.2
Yards / att
10.1
270.4
Air yards / gm
243.0
0.166
EPA / dropback
0.363
+5.4
CPOE
completion % over expected
+8.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.8 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 3 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs CIN
Lamar Jackson
BAL · 4 games, 96 attempts
54
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
31st of 34
24.0 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 46% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
1st of 34
10.1 yards per attempt · 70.8% completions · 0.363 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
13th of 32
CIN has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 257 yards26 attempts × 10.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 26.8 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 4225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
This line sits on 3, which was the exact final margin in 1,046 of 6,967 games.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Tee Higgins23.1% target share · 16.6 PPR last 4
Ja'Marr Chase20.4% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Dohnte Meyers9.7% target share · 6.1 PPR last 4
Zay Flowers23.1% target share · 20.4 PPR last 4
Rashod Bateman15.7% target share · 11.3 PPR last 4
Devontez Walker5.2% target share · 4.4 PPR last 4
Chase Brown64.5% of team carries · 11.6 PPR last 4
Samaje Perine24.5% of team carries · 5.5 PPR last 4
Derrick Henry72.6% of team carries · 19.1 PPR last 4
Justice Hill11.5% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 4
Mike Gesicki9.1% target share · 13 PPR last 4
Tanner Hudson3.8% target share · 4.1 PPR last 4
Drew Sample3.2% target share · 2.5 PPR last 3
Mark Andrews23.1% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4