Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
DAL
26.6%
GB
73.4%
Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
5.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Dak Prescott · DALQB Index componentsJordan Love · GB
64 · B+
Index
72 · A
38.4
Attempts / gm
37.0
3.0%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
5.1%
67.2%
Completion
QB Index · vs GB
Dak Prescott
DAL · 5 games, 192 attempts
64
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
5th of 34
38.4 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 3.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.2 yards per attempt · 67.2% completions · 0.229 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
25th of 32
GB has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 268 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 5 prices on record
Open
Opened -3 on Wed, Jul 29, 82 days before kickoff.
Move
4 reprices since, 19.5 points of movement in all. It closed -5.5 — the favourite is 2.5 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -5.5 to +2.5 along the way, retracing 17 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 6 PM ET.
49% 5+ days out51% Gameday
Biggest move
7 points at once — +1.5 to -5.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 9 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+1.5 to -5.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 9 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 70 days, then left it on Tue, Oct 6, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 5 prices on record
Open
Opened 50.5 on Tue, Oct 6, 12 days before kickoff.
Move
4 reprices since, 8 points of movement in all. It closed 48.5 — 2 points lower than the open. It ranged from 48.5 to 53.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 9 PM ET.
25% 5+ days out75% Gameday
Biggest move
5 points at once — 53.5 to 48.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 9 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 5.5 covered 125 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 178 of 275.
The total
Totals of 48.5 went over 95 of 182 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 83
Barryn Sorrell
Sacks
0.5
over
+300
FanDuel
under
—
Bo Melton
Receiving Yards
0.5market 39% over2.0pp between books — shop it
over
+152
FanDuel
under
-196
DraftKings
Bo Melton
Receptions
0.5market 41% over20.8pp between books — shop it
over
+130
DraftKings
under
+134
FanDuel
Brandon Aubrey
Kicking Points
8.5market 45% over
over
+107
DraftKings
under
-139
DraftKings
Brandon Cisse Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+950
DraftKings
under
—
Brenton Cox
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Brevyn Spann-Ford
Receiving Yards
3.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Brevyn Spann-Ford
Receptions
0.5market 55% over
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Caleb Downs Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+10000
DraftKings
under
—
Carrington Valentine Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1500
DraftKings
under
—
CeeDee Lamb
Receiving Yards
84.5market 50% over
we project101.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
CeeDee Lamb
Receptions
6.5market 49% over3.6pp between books — shop it
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-119
DraftKings
Christian Watson
Receiving Yards
74.5market 50% over
we project94.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Christian Watson
Receptions
4.5market 50% over6.0pp between books — shop it
over
-116
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Dak Prescott
Carries
1.5market 58% over
we project2.4/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-167
DraftKings
under
+120
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Completions
26.5market 51% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Interceptions
1.5market 43% over
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-156
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Pass Attempts
38.5market 50% over
we project38.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Passing TDs
1.5market 57% over5.0pp between books — shop it
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+144
FanDuel
Dak Prescott
Passing Yards
277.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Rushing Yards
6.5market 51% over
we project13.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-122
FanDuel
under
-108
FanDuel
Dani Dennis-Sutton
Sacks
0.5
over
+260
FanDuel
under
—
DaRon Bland Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+6000
DraftKings
under
—
Dee Winters Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1900
DraftKings
under
—
Devonte Wyatt
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Donovan Ezeiruaku
Sacks
0.5
over
+300
FanDuel
under
—
Evan Williams Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+750
DraftKings
under
—
George Pickens
Receiving Yards
67.5market 50% over
we project71.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
George Pickens
Receptions
4.5market 45% over10.6pp between books — shop it
over
+105
DraftKings
under
+110
FanDuel
Jaishawn Barham
Sacks
0.5
over
+410
FanDuel
under
—
Jake Ferguson
Receiving Yards
24.5market 50% over
we project20.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jake Ferguson
Receptions
3.5market 44% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-149
DraftKings
Javon Bullard Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+20000
DraftKings
under
—
Javonte Williams
Carries
12.5market 50% over
we project14.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Javonte Williams
Receiving Yards
10.5market 49% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Javonte Williams
Receptions
2.5market 54% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
-122
FanDuel
under
+103
DraftKings
Javonte Williams
Rushing Yards
69.5market 50% over
we project55.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jonnu Smith
Receiving Yards
6.5market 49% over
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-119
DraftKings
Jonnu Smith
Receptions
0.5market 50% over12.7pp between books — shop it
over
-120
DraftKings
under
+152
FanDuel
Jordan Love
Carries
2.5market 44% over
we project1.4/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-152
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Completions
23.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Interceptions
1.5market 32% over
over
+190
DraftKings
under
-270
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Pass Attempts
35.5market 53% over
we project37.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Passing TDs
1.5market 63% over
over
-200
DraftKings
under
+154
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Passing Yards
274.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Rushing Yards
5.5market 51% over
we project-0.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Kaleb Johnson
Rushing Yards
5.5market 51% over
we project21.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-122
FanDuel
under
-108
FanDuel
Karl Brooks
Sacks
0.5
over
+410
FanDuel
under
—
KaVontae Turpin
Receiving Yards
5.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
KaVontae Turpin
Receptions
0.5market 59% over
over
-169
DraftKings
under
+131
DraftKings
Keisean Nixon Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
Kenny Clark
Sacks
0.5
over
+370
FanDuel
under
—
Lukas Van Ness
Sacks
0.5
over
+194
FanDuel
under
—
Malachi Lawrence
Sacks
0.5
over
+320
FanDuel
under
—
Malik Hooker Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+950
DraftKings
under
—
Markquese Bell Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+2000
DraftKings
under
—
MarShawn Lloyd
Carries
9.5market 50% over
we project8.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
MarShawn Lloyd
Receiving Yards
10.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
MarShawn Lloyd
Receptions
1.5market 61% over
over
-178
FanDuel
under
+144
DraftKings
MarShawn Lloyd
Rushing Yards
42.5market 50% over
we project22.4/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Matthew Golden
Receiving Yards
67.5market 50% over
we project79.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Matthew Golden
Receptions
4.5market 57% over
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+118
DraftKings
Pierre Strong
Receiving Yards
35.5market 49% over
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Pierre Strong
Receptions
2.5market 38% over
over
+146
FanDuel
under
-198
FanDuel
Pierre Strong
Rushing Yards
26.5market 51% over
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Pierre Strong Jr.
Receiving Yards
32.5market 51% over
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Pierre Strong Jr.
Receptions
3.5market 56% over
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
Pierre Strong Jr.
Rushing Yards
31.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Quinnen Williams
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Rashan Gary
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
Ryan Flournoy
Receiving Yards
33.5market 49% over
we project38.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Ryan Flournoy
Receptions
2.5market 59% over3.2pp between books — shop it
over
-164
DraftKings
under
+140
FanDuel
Savion Williams
Receiving Yards
3.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Savion Williams
Receptions
0.5market 59% over
over
-167
DraftKings
under
+129
DraftKings
Shavon Revel Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
—
Trey Smack
Kicking Points
7.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Tucker Kraft
Receiving Yards
49.5market 50% over
we project42.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Tucker Kraft
Receptions
4.5market 46% over
over
+107
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
Tyler Goodson
Rushing Yards
10.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Von Miller
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Xavier McKinney Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+450
DraftKings
under
—
Zaire Franklin
Sacks
0.5
over
+520
FanDuel
under
—
Zaire Franklin Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+20000
DraftKings
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
60.5%
7.2
Yards / att
7.6
288.2
Air yards / gm
322.2
0.229
EPA / dropback
0.110
+3.0
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.1
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 4 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs DAL
Jordan Love
GB · 5 games, 185 attempts
72
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
9th of 34
37.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 65% pass · sacked on 5.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
17th of 34
7.6 yards per attempt · 60.5% completions · 0.110 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
3rd of 32
DAL has allowed 8.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 267 yards35 attempts × 7.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 27.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 3 of 5325.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
CeeDee Lamb27.7% target share · 24.9 PPR last 4
George Pickens21.8% target share · 15.7 PPR last 4
Ryan Flournoy14.9% target share · 7.8 PPR last 4
Matthew Golden24.7% target share · 15.7 PPR last 4
Christian Watson22.0% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Skyy Moore7.7% target share · 2.6 PPR last 4
Javonte Williams71.2% of team carries · 17.9 PPR last 4
Tyler Goodson8.7% of team carries · 2 PPR last 2
Emari Demercado4.8% of team carries · 0.8 PPR last 2
MarShawn Lloyd44.4% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Jake Ferguson11.2% target share · 9.7 PPR last 4
Brevyn Spann-Ford3.2% target share · 0.7 PPR last 4
Tucker Kraft15.9% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4
Jonnu Smith3.8% target share · 4.5 PPR last 3
