Buffalo BillsatLas Vegas Raiders

Final · Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30

Opened

+6.5

First seen Jul 29

Closed

+6.5

Unmoved

Total

59.5

Prices archived

166

23 spread · 20 total

0.5 points short of 7

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

BUF

86.5%

13.5%

Teams the market priced at 85–90% won 191 of 213 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 2.5 points.

5.9%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.

Head to head

Josh Allen · BUFQB Index componentsKirk Cousins · LV

62 · B+

Index

65 · B+

27.6

Attempts / gm

34.4

6.8%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

4.4%

65.9%

Completion

QB Index · vs LV

Josh Allen

BUF · 5 games, 138 attempts

index

B+

Volumeweight 0.40

26th of 34

27.6 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

6th of 34

9.1 yards per attempt · 65.9% completions · 0.286 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

5th of 32

LV has allowed 7.9 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 233 yards

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 12 prices on record

Open

Opened +6.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.

Move

11 reprices since, 17 points of movement in all. It ended up exactly where it started. It ranged from +2.5 to +6.5 along the way, retracing 17 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Fri, Oct 16, 8 PM ET.

29% 5+ days out18% 5–2 days out12% Final two days41% Gameday

Biggest move

4 points at once — +2.5 to +6.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 7 PM ET.

Crossed 3

+4.5 to +2.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 6 PM ET — back through 3.

Crossed 3

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record

Open

Opened 47.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.

Move

7 reprices since, 22 points of movement in all. It closed 59.5 — 12 points higher than the open. It ranged from 47.5 to 59.5 along the way, retracing 10 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 6 PM ET.

36% 5+ days out64% Gameday

Biggest move

10 points at once — 49.5 to 59.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 7 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 6.5 covered 151 of 325 games.

The range covers a coin flip.

They won outright in 234 of 325.

The total

Totals of 59.5 went over 1 of 2 times.

Only 2 games at this number — too few to read.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

Player props · 68

Ashton Jeanty

Carries

13.5market 50% over

we project17.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-116

DraftKings

Ashton Jeanty

Receiving Yards

47.5market 51% over

over

-120

DraftKings

under

-110

FanDuel

Ashton Jeanty

Receptions

3.5market 52% over2.8pp between books — shop it

over

-123

DraftKings

under

+104

FanDuel

Ashton Jeanty

Rushing Yards

50.5market 50% over

we project58.2/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Bradley Chubb

Sacks

0.5

over

+178

FanDuel

under

—

Brock Bowers

Receiving Yards

79.5market 50% over

we project104.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Brock Bowers

Receptions

6.5market 54% over

over

-132

FanDuel

under

+105

DraftKings

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+450

DraftKings

under

—

Christian Benford Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+650

DraftKings

under

—

Cody White

Receiving Yards

7.5market 50% over

we project21.6/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-110

FanDuel

Cody White

Receptions

1.5market 7% over37.3pp between books — shop it

over

+2200

DraftKings

under

-164

DraftKings

Cole Bishop Defensive

Interceptions

1.5

over

+6500

DraftKings

under

—

D.J. Moore

Receiving Yards

49.5market 50% over

we project44.5/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

D.J. Moore

Receptions

3.5market 53% over

over

-130

DraftKings

under

+104

FanDuel

Dalton Kincaid

Receiving Yards

49.5market 27% over33.3pp between books — shop it

we project55.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+400

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Dalton Kincaid

Receptions

4.5market 53% over4.6pp between books — shop it

over

-108

FanDuel

under

+101

DraftKings

Dawson Knox

Receiving Yards

0.5market 19% over19.3pp between books — shop it

over

+550

DraftKings

under

-185

DraftKings

Dawson Knox

Receptions

1.5market 23% over31.2pp between books — shop it

over

+475

DraftKings

under

-139

DraftKings

Deone Walker

Sacks

0.5

over

+410

FanDuel

under

—

Dewayne Carter

Sacks

0.5

over

+550

FanDuel

under

—

Eric Stokes Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1000

DraftKings

under

—

Greg Rousseau

Sacks

0.5

over

-114

FanDuel

under

—

Jalen Nailor

Receiving Yards

9.5market 34% over2.9pp between books — shop it

we project17.3/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+195

DraftKings

under

-235

FanDuel

Jalen Nailor

Receptions

2.5market 15% over30.6pp between books — shop it

over

+800

DraftKings

under

-185

DraftKings

James Cook

Carries

18.5market 55% over

we project19.0/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-141

DraftKings

under

+105

DraftKings

James Cook

Receiving Yards

32.5market 41% over3.8pp between books — shop it

over

+152

FanDuel

under

-175

DraftKings

James Cook

Receptions

1.5market 63% over19.5pp between books — shop it

over

+106

FanDuel

under

+155

DraftKings

James Cook

Rushing Yards

93.5market 50% over

we project106.4/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Jeremy Chinn Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1000

DraftKings

under

—

Josh Allen

Carries

5.5market 53% over

we project8.6/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

-132

DraftKings

under

-105

DraftKings

Josh Allen

Completions

23.5market 56% over

over

-147

DraftKings

under

+110

DraftKings

Josh Allen

Interceptions

0.5market 21% over

over

+350

DraftKings

under

-526

DraftKings

Josh Allen

Pass Attempts

31.5market 49% over

we project27.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-120

DraftKings

Josh Allen

Passing TDs

1.5market 40% over14.9pp between books — shop it

over

+135

DraftKings

under

+104

FanDuel

Josh Allen

Passing Yards

242.5market 50% over

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Josh Allen

Rushing Yards

19.5market 51% over43.4pp between books — shop it

we project47.8/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

+800

DraftKings

under

-110

FanDuel

Josh Palmer

Receiving Yards

37.5market 34% over

over

+172

FanDuel

under

-235

FanDuel

Josh Palmer

Receptions

1.5market 49% over

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-118

FanDuel

Joshua Palmer

Receiving Yards

37.5market 42% over

over

+120

DraftKings

under

-161

DraftKings

Joshua Palmer

Receptions

1.5market 44% over

over

+110

DraftKings

under

-147

DraftKings

Keon Coleman

Receiving Yards

44.5market 29% over

we project44.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+340

DraftKings

under

-120

DraftKings

Keon Coleman

Receptions

3.5market 28% over22.2pp between books — shop it

over

+300

DraftKings

under

-148

FanDuel

Khalil Shakir

Receiving Yards

38.5market 50% over

we project51.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Khalil Shakir

Receptions

3.5market 34% over33.0pp between books — shop it

over

+280

DraftKings

under

+110

FanDuel

Kirk Cousins

Completions

23.5market 52% over

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-105

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins

Interceptions

0.5market 40% over

over

+130

DraftKings

under

-182

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins

Pass Attempts

39.5market 47% over

we project34.4/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

+100

DraftKings

under

-135

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins

Passing TDs

1.5market 38% over21.5pp between books — shop it

over

+150

DraftKings

under

+122

FanDuel

Kirk Cousins

Passing Yards

246.5market 50% over

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins

Rushing Yards

9.5

we project-0.4/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

+1300

DraftKings

under

—

Kwity Paye

Sacks

0.5

over

+182

FanDuel

under

—

Matt Gay

Kicking Points

7.5market 46% over

over

+104

DraftKings

under

-133

DraftKings

Maxx Crosby

Sacks

0.5

over

-102

FanDuel

under

—

Michael Mayer

Receiving Yards

27.5market 50% over

we project34.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-110

FanDuel

Michael Mayer

Receptions

2.5market 60% over

over

-172

FanDuel

under

+136

DraftKings

Mike Washington Jr.

Rushing Yards

14.5market 49% over

we project25.0/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-108

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Quay Walker

Sacks

0.5

over

+360

FanDuel

under

—

Ray Davis

Rushing Yards

9.5market 17% over41.4pp between books — shop it

over

+850

DraftKings

under

-109

DraftKings

Skyler Bell

Receiving Yards

0.5market 41% over1.9pp between books — shop it

over

+125

DraftKings

under

-154

FanDuel

Skyler Bell

Receptions

0.5market 43% over

over

+115

DraftKings

under

-156

DraftKings

Taron Johnson Defensive

Interceptions

1.5

over

+14000

DraftKings

under

—

Terrel Bernard Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1000

DraftKings

under

—

Tre Tucker

Receiving Yards

37.5market 50% over

we project54.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Tre Tucker

Receptions

3.5market 57% over6.0pp between books — shop it

over

-122

FanDuel

under

+115

DraftKings

Treydan Stukes Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+800

DraftKings

under

—

Ty Johnson

Receiving Yards

24.5market 50% over37.9pp between books — shop it

over

+550

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Ty Johnson

Receptions

2.5market 28% over22.0pp between books — shop it

over

+475

DraftKings

under

+125

DraftKings

Tyler Bass

Kicking Points

8.5market 46% over

over

+105

DraftKings

under

-135

DraftKings

Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.