Los Angeles ChargersatKansas City Chiefs

Final · Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22

Opened

-2.5

First seen Jul 29

Closed

-16.5

-14 since open

Total

31.5

Prices archived

160

22 spread · 22 total

Crossed 3 & 7 & 10 since opening

Where the best number is

KC-16.5DraftKings

LAC+16.5DraftKings

Over31.5DraftKings

Under32.5FanDuel

Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

LAC

1.0%

99.0%

We hold too few games at this price to say what it has been worth historically, so we don't.

0.9%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 100.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.

Head to head

Justin Herbert · LACQB Index componentsPatrick Mahomes · KC

21 · F

Index

60 · B

28.6

Attempts / gm

32.0

10.6%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

4.5%

59.4%

Completion

QB Index · vs KC

Justin Herbert

LAC · 5 games, 143 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

24th of 34

28.6 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 49% pass · sacked on 10.6% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

28th of 34

6.6 yards per attempt · 59.4% completions · -0.193 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

28th of 32

KC has allowed 6.2 yards per attempt across 4 games

≈ 169 yards

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 5 prices on record

Open

Opened -2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.

Move

4 reprices since, 16 points of movement in all. It closed -16.5 — the favourite is 14 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -16.5 to -2.5 along the way, retracing 2 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 6 PM ET.

38% 5+ days out6% 5–2 days out56% Gameday

Biggest move

9 points at once — -7.5 to -16.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 6 PM ET.

Crossed 3

-2.5 to -7.5 on Tue, Oct 6, 8 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.

Crossed 7

-2.5 to -7.5 on Tue, Oct 6, 8 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 9 prices on record

Open

Opened 46.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.

Move

8 reprices since, 19 points of movement in all. It closed 31.5 — 15 points lower than the open. It ranged from 31.5 to 46.5 along the way, retracing 4 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 7 PM ET.

21% 5+ days out5% 5–2 days out11% Final two days63% Gameday

Biggest move

11 points at once — 42.5 to 31.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 7 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 16.5 covered 6 of 14 games.

Only 14 games at this number — too few to read.

They won outright in 13 of 14.

The total

Totals of 31.5 went over 0 of 2 times.

Only 2 games at this number — too few to read.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

Player props · 81

Akheem Mesidor

Sacks

0.5

over

+270

FanDuel

under

—

Alohi Gilman Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+850

DraftKings

under

—

Ashton Gillotte

Sacks

0.5

over

+240

FanDuel

under

—

Bud Dupree

Sacks

0.5

over

+450

FanDuel

under

—

Cam Hart Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1000

DraftKings

under

—

Cameron Dicker

Kicking Points

6.5market 46% over

over

+107

DraftKings

under

-137

DraftKings

Chamarri Conner Defensive

Interceptions

1.5

over

+17000

DraftKings

under

—

Charlie Kolar

Receiving Yards

7.5market 50% over1.8pp between books — shop it

over

-108

FanDuel

under

-120

DraftKings

Charlie Kolar

Receptions

2.5market 45% over4.1pp between books — shop it

over

+130

FanDuel

under

-141

DraftKings

Chris Jones

Sacks

0.5

over

+154

FanDuel

under

—

Cyrus Allen

Receiving Yards

14.5market 50% over

over

-114

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Cyrus Allen

Receptions

1.5market 41% over5.1pp between books — shop it

over

+154

FanDuel

under

-172

DraftKings

Daiyan Henley

Sacks

0.5

over

+550

FanDuel

under

—

Dalvin Tomlinson

Sacks

0.5

over

+750

FanDuel

under

—

Drue Tranquill

Sacks

0.5

over

+220

FanDuel

under

—

Elijah Molden Defensive

Interceptions

1.5

over

+15000

DraftKings

under

—

Emmett Johnson

Receiving Yards

18.5market 10% over25.9pp between books — shop it

over

+1200

DraftKings

under

-217

DraftKings

Emmett Johnson

Receptions

1.5market 57% over20.6pp between books — shop it

over

+148

FanDuel

under

+115

DraftKings

Emmett Johnson

Rushing Yards

13.5market 50% over

we project14.0/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-106

FanDuel

under

-112

DraftKings

Felix Anudike-Uzomah

Sacks

0.5

over

+225

FanDuel

under

—

Genesis Smith Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1100

DraftKings

under

—

George Karlaftis

Sacks

0.5

over

-102

FanDuel

under

—

Harrison Butker

Kicking Points

8.5market 46% over

over

+106

DraftKings

under

-135

DraftKings

Jaden Hicks Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+900

DraftKings

under

—

Jalen Royals

Receiving Yards

24.5market 15% over44.0pp between books — shop it

over

+1000

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Jalen Royals

Receptions

2.5market 43% over3.8pp between books — shop it

over

+134

FanDuel

under

-156

DraftKings

Justin Herbert

Carries

5.5market 59% over

we project4.8/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

-172

DraftKings

under

+125

DraftKings

Justin Herbert

Completions

20.5market 46% over

over

+100

DraftKings

under

-141

DraftKings

Justin Herbert

Interceptions

1.5market 41% over

over

+130

DraftKings

under

-175

DraftKings

Justin Herbert

Pass Attempts

35.5market 47% over

we project28.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

+100

DraftKings

under

-135

DraftKings

Justin Herbert

Passing TDs

0.5market 30% over45.0pp between books — shop it

over

+330

DraftKings

under

+162

FanDuel

Justin Herbert

Passing Yards

192.5market 50% over

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Justin Herbert

Rushing Yards

26.5market 39% over

we project28.4/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

+142

FanDuel

under

-192

DraftKings

Keaton Mitchell

Carries

3.5market 50% over

we project6.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-116

DraftKings

Keaton Mitchell

Receiving Yards

12.5market 50% over

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-116

DraftKings

Keaton Mitchell

Receptions

2.5market 44% over

over

+116

DraftKings

under

-149

DraftKings

Keaton Mitchell

Rushing Yards

18.5market 49% over1.6pp between books — shop it

we project27.0/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-106

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Kenneth Walker III

Carries

19.5market 47% over

we project21.8/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

+100

DraftKings

under

-135

DraftKings

Kenneth Walker III

Receiving Yards

11.5

over

+600

DraftKings

under

—

Kenneth Walker III

Receptions

3.5market 44% over4.4pp between books — shop it

over

+134

FanDuel

under

-145

DraftKings

Kenneth Walker III

Rushing Yards

91.5market 50% over

we project134.3/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Khalil Mack

Sacks

0.5

over

+174

FanDuel

under

—

Khyiris Tonga

Sacks

0.5

over

+640

FanDuel

under

—

Kimani Vidal

Receiving Yards

6.5market 50% over

over

-118

FanDuel

under

-112

FanDuel

Kimani Vidal

Receptions

1.5market 48% over

over

-104

DraftKings

under

-123

DraftKings

Kimani Vidal

Rushing Yards

16.5market 51% over1.7pp between books — shop it

we project22.0/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

L'Jarius Sneed Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+900

DraftKings

under

—

Ladd McConkey

Receiving Yards

41.5market 50% over

we project45.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Ladd McConkey

Receptions

3.5market 49% over

over

-102

FanDuel

under

-120

DraftKings

Mansoor Delane Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1000

DraftKings

under

—

Nick Bolton

Sacks

0.5

over

+270

FanDuel

under

—

Nick Bolton Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1500

DraftKings

under

—

Noah Gray

Receiving Yards

22.5market 36% over3.2pp between books — shop it

over

+160

DraftKings

under

-188

FanDuel

Noah Gray

Receptions

1.5market 60% over11.6pp between books — shop it

over

-114

FanDuel

under

+135

DraftKings

Nohl Williams Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+900

DraftKings

under

—

Omarion Hampton

Carries

7.5market 50% over

we project14.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-120

DraftKings

Omarion Hampton

Receiving Yards

21.5market 33% over11.1pp between books — shop it

over

+310

DraftKings

under

-250

FanDuel

Omarion Hampton

Receptions

1.5market 63% over30.7pp between books — shop it

over

+168

FanDuel

under

+155

DraftKings

Omarion Hampton

Rushing Yards

18.5market 45% over10.6pp between books — shop it

we project54.2/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

+170

DraftKings

under

-146

FanDuel

Oronde Gadsden

Receiving Yards

17.5market 34% over

we project17.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+172

FanDuel

under

-235

FanDuel

Oronde Gadsden

Receptions

1.5market 51% over

over

-122

FanDuel

under

-108

FanDuel

Oronde Gadsden II

Receiving Yards

17.5market 31% over

we project17.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+200

DraftKings

under

-286

DraftKings

Oronde Gadsden II

Receptions

3.5market 32% over

over

+190

DraftKings

under

-263

DraftKings

Patrick Mahomes

Carries

3.5market 44% over

we project3.0/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

+110

DraftKings

under

-152

DraftKings

Patrick Mahomes

Completions

21.5market 53% over

over

-132

DraftKings

under

-105

DraftKings

Patrick Mahomes

Interceptions

1.5market 21% over

over

+350

DraftKings

under

-526

DraftKings

Patrick Mahomes

Pass Attempts

29.5market 47% over

we project32.0/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

+100

DraftKings

under

-135

DraftKings

Patrick Mahomes

Passing TDs

1.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-110

FanDuel

Patrick Mahomes

Passing Yards

226.5market 50% over

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Patrick Mahomes

Rushing Yards

8.5market 50% over3.1pp between books — shop it

we project10.3/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-106

FanDuel

under

-116

DraftKings

Peter Woods

Sacks

0.5

over

+350

FanDuel

under

—

Quentin Johnston

Receiving Yards

57.5market 46% over

we project27.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+100

DraftKings

under

-132

FanDuel

Quentin Johnston

Receptions

2.5market 53% over

over

-130

FanDuel

under

-102

FanDuel

R Mason Thomas

Sacks

0.5

over

+140

FanDuel

under

—

Tarheeb Still Defensive

Interceptions

1.5

over

+10000

DraftKings

under

—

Tony Jefferson Defensive

Interceptions

1.5

over

+13000

DraftKings

under

—

Travis Kelce

Receiving Yards

53.5market 25% over35.7pp between books — shop it

we project61.5/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+475

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Travis Kelce

Receptions

4.5market 26% over31.0pp between books — shop it

over

+425

DraftKings

under

-114

DraftKings

Tuli Tuipulotu

Sacks

0.5

over

+140

FanDuel

under

—

Xavier Worthy

Receiving Yards

48.5market 50% over

we project33.3/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Xavier Worthy

Receptions

4.5market 48% over

over

-102

FanDuel

under

-123

DraftKings

Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.