Final · Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
Opened
-1.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
+6.5
+8 since open
Total
38.5
Prices archived
163
21 spread · 27 total
Crossed 3 since opening0.5 points short of 78 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
TB+6.5DraftKings
PIT+1.5FanDuel
Over29.5FanDuel
Under38.5DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
PIT
44.1%
TB
55.9%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
6.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.
Head to head
Aaron Rodgers · PITQB Index componentsBaker Mayfield · TB
53 · B
Index
48 · C
36.8
Attempts / gm
32.0
7.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
11.9%
59.8%
Completion
QB Index · vs TB
Aaron Rodgers
PIT · 5 games, 184 attempts
53
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
10th of 34
36.8 attempts per game · team runs 59 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 7.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 34
6.7 yards per attempt · 59.8% completions · -0.071 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
16th of 32
TB has allowed 7.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 232 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record
Open
Opened -1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.
Move
6 reprices since, 39 points of movement in all. It closed +6.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -12.5 to +6.5 along the way, retracing 31 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 3 PM ET.
12% 5+ days out1% 5–2 days out87% Gameday
Biggest move
19 points at once — -12.5 to +6.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 4 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+2.5 to -5.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 7
-5.5 to -9.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 10 prices on record
Open
Opened 45.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.
Move
9 reprices since, 29 points of movement in all. It closed 38.5 — 7 points lower than the open. It ranged from 29.5 to 45.5 along the way, retracing 22 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET.
24% 5+ days out4% 5–2 days out3% Final two days69% Gameday
Biggest move
9 points at once — 29.5 to 38.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 4 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 6.5 covered 151 of 325 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 234 of 325.
The total
Totals of 38.5 went over 67 of 140 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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Player props · 66
Aaron Rodgers
Completions
22.5market 51% over
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Interceptions
1.5market 31% over
over
+205
DraftKings
under
-286
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Pass Attempts
38.5market 50% over
we project36.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Passing TDs
1.5market 36% over
over
+142
FanDuel
under
-188
FanDuel
Aaron Rodgers
Passing Yards
203.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Aaron Rodgers
Rushing Yards
0.5market 28% over13.7pp between books — shop it
we project3.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+240
DraftKings
under
-178
FanDuel
Alex Highsmith
Sacks
0.5
over
+100
FanDuel
under
—
Asante Samuel Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+7000
DraftKings
under
—
Brandin Echols Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+14000
DraftKings
under
—
Bucky Irving
Carries
21.5market 57% over
we project15.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+115
DraftKings
Bucky Irving
Receiving Yards
1.5market 27% over24.9pp between books — shop it
over
+270
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
Bucky Irving
Receptions
1.5market 30% over33.4pp between books — shop it
over
+235
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Bucky Irving
Rushing Yards
68.5market 50% over
we project81.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Cade Otton
Receiving Yards
4.5market 33% over15.6pp between books — shop it
we project36.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+240
DraftKings
under
-156
DraftKings
Cade Otton
Receptions
3.5market 6% over41.6pp between books — shop it
over
+2500
DraftKings
under
-152
DraftKings
Calijah Kancey
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Cameron Heyward
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Chase McLaughlin
Kicking Points
6.5market 51% over
over
-118
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Chris Boswell
Kicking Points
6.5market 54% over
over
-137
DraftKings
under
+106
DraftKings
Chris Godwin
Receiving Yards
28.5market 35% over
we project35.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+205
DraftKings
under
-156
DraftKings
Chris Godwin
Receptions
3.5market 38% over9.7pp between books — shop it
over
+180
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Darnell Washington
Receiving Yards
25.5market 20% over39.9pp between books — shop it
we project26.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+650
DraftKings
under
-109
DraftKings
Darnell Washington
Receptions
2.5market 37% over15.6pp between books — shop it
over
+150
DraftKings
under
-106
FanDuel
DK Metcalf
Receiving Yards
48.5market 50% over
we project45.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
DK Metcalf
Receptions
4.5market 40% over
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-174
FanDuel
Emeka Egbuka
Receiving Yards
36.5market 50% over
we project38.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Emeka Egbuka
Receptions
3.5market 50% over2.8pp between books — shop it
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Germie Bernard
Receiving Yards
42.5market 50% over
we project35.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Germie Bernard
Receptions
3.5market 53% over7.8pp between books — shop it
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+140
FanDuel
Ifeatu Melifonwu Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
Jacob Parrish Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
Jalen Ramsey Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+8000
DraftKings
under
—
Jalon Daniels
Carries
4.5market 57% over
over
-161
DraftKings
under
+115
DraftKings
Jalon Daniels
Completions
20.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Jalon Daniels
Interceptions
0.5market 17% over
over
+450
DraftKings
under
-714
DraftKings
Jalon Daniels
Pass Attempts
31.5market 56% over
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
Jalon Daniels
Passing TDs
0.5market 60% over5.7pp between books — shop it
over
-185
DraftKings
under
+178
FanDuel
Jalon Daniels
Passing Yards
156.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jalon Daniels
Rushing Yards
32.5market 51% over2.5pp between books — shop it
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jamel Dean Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+14000
DraftKings
under
—
Jaquan Brisker Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+650
DraftKings
under
—
Jaylen Warren
Carries
8.5market 58% over
we project14.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-167
DraftKings
under
+120
DraftKings
Jaylen Warren
Receiving Yards
26.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Jaylen Warren
Receptions
3.5market 44% over8.5pp between books — shop it
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-104
FanDuel
Jaylen Warren
Rushing Yards
59.5market 5% over50.5pp between books — shop it
we project82.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+3500
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Keionte Scott Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+16000
DraftKings
under
—
Kenneth Gainwell
Receiving Yards
10.5market 50% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
Kenneth Gainwell
Receptions
2.5market 7% over42.4pp between books — shop it
over
+2000
DraftKings
under
-148
FanDuel
Kenneth Gainwell
Rushing Yards
21.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Nick Herbig
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Pat Freiermuth
Receiving Yards
24.5market 51% over50.2pp between books — shop it
we project33.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+2200
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Pat Freiermuth
Receptions
3.5market 8% over42.0pp between books — shop it
over
+2000
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Rico Dowdle
Carries
5.5market 64% over
over
-217
DraftKings
under
+160
DraftKings
Rico Dowdle
Receiving Yards
6.5market 8% over28.8pp between books — shop it
over
+2000
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Rico Dowdle
Receptions
1.5market 53% over7.4pp between books — shop it
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-105
DraftKings
Rico Dowdle
Rushing Yards
21.5market 51% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Rueben Bain Jr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+250
FanDuel
under
—
T.J. Watt
Sacks
0.5
over
-186
FanDuel
under
—
Ted Hurst
Receiving Yards
5.5market 15% over
we project32.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+550
DraftKings
under
-556
DraftKings
Ted Hurst
Receptions
1.5market 17% over
over
+475
DraftKings
under
-500
DraftKings
Ted Hurst III
Receiving Yards
5.5market 32% over
we project32.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+194
FanDuel
under
-270
FanDuel
Ted Hurst III
Receptions
1.5market 36% over
over
+158
FanDuel
under
-215
FanDuel
Tykee Smith Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
Vita Vea
Sacks
0.5
over
+360
FanDuel
under
—
Yaya Diaby
Sacks
0.5
over
+300
FanDuel
under
—
Zyon McCollum Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
63.5%
6.7
Yards / att
6.4
315.0
Air yards / gm
284.0
-0.071
EPA / dropback
-0.274
-2.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
+1.1
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs PIT
Baker Mayfield
TB · 3 games, 96 attempts
48
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
15th of 34
32.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 11.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
6.4 yards per attempt · 63.5% completions · -0.274 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
11th of 32
PIT has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 170 yards27 attempts × 6.4 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 16.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 2 of 3225.5 yards in 0 of 3250.5 yards in 0 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Crossed 10
-9.5 to -12.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 3 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.
6 key-number crossings in all.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 7 days, then left it on Tue, Oct 13, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
DK Metcalf21.1% target share · 10.1 PPR last 4
Roman Wilson14.3% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4
Germie Bernard11.4% target share · 6.8 PPR last 4
Emeka Egbuka22.6% target share · 10.5 PPR last 4
Chris Godwin Jr.14.4% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Ted Hurst III11.0% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
Jaylen Warren73.7% of team carries · 20.7 PPR last 4
Rico Dowdle15.8% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 2
Travis Homer5.3% of team carries · 0.5 PPR last 3
Bucky Irving57.9% of team carries · 14.6 PPR last 4
Pat Freiermuth14.9% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
Darnell Washington9.1% target share · 6.6 PPR last 4
Cade Otton18.5% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
