Final · Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14
Opened
-6.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
+5.5
+12 since open
Total
39.5
Prices archived
258
43 spread · 36 total
Crossed 3 since opening
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
CAR
84.8%
PHI
15.2%
Teams the market priced at 80–85% won 267 of 324 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
6.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.
Head to head
Bryce Young · CARQB Index componentsJalen Hurts · PHI
78 · A
Index
35 · F
40.5
Attempts / gm
30.8
5.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.8%
62.3%
Completion
QB Index · vs PHI
Bryce Young
CAR · 4 games, 162 attempts
78
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
3rd of 34
40.5 attempts per game · team runs 65 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 5.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
6th of 34
7.8 yards per attempt · 62.3% completions · 0.240 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
18th of 32
PHI has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 300 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 12 prices on record
Open
Opened -6.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.
Move
11 reprices since, 19 points of movement in all. It closed +5.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -6.5 to +7.5 along the way, retracing 7 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Oct 14, 2 PM ET.
37% 5+ days out26% 5–2 days out3% Final two days34% Gameday
Biggest move
4 points at once — -6.5 to -2.5 on Tue, Oct 6, 8 PM ET.
Crossed 3
-6.5 to -2.5 on Tue, Oct 6, 8 PM ET — back through 3.
Crossed 3
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 12 prices on record
Open
Opened 43.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.
Move
11 reprices since, 26 points of movement in all. It closed 39.5 — 4 points lower than the open. It ranged from 31.5 to 43.5 along the way, retracing 22 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET.
11% 5+ days out23% 5–2 days out4% Final two days62% Gameday
Biggest move
8 points at once — 39.5 to 31.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 5.5 covered 125 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 178 of 275.
The total
Totals of 39.5 went over 82 of 171 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 64
Andrew Mukuba Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+750
DraftKings
under
—
Bryce Young
Completions
20.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Bryce Young
Interceptions
0.5market 24% over
over
+290
DraftKings
under
-435
DraftKings
Bryce Young
Pass Attempts
40.5market 53% over
we project40.5/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Bryce Young
Passing TDs
1.5market 18% over22.3pp between books — shop it
over
+425
DraftKings
under
-188
FanDuel
Bryce Young
Passing Yards
252.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Bryce Young
Rushing Yards
5.5market 50% over1.9pp between books — shop it
we project4.8/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-106
FanDuel
Brycen Tremayne
Receiving Yards
0.5market 12% over29.8pp between books — shop it
over
+950
DraftKings
under
-210
FanDuel
Brycen Tremayne
Receptions
1.5market 17% over36.0pp between books — shop it
over
+700
DraftKings
under
-140
FanDuel
Chuba Hubbard
Carries
20.5market 47% over
we project15.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Chuba Hubbard
Receiving Yards
1.5market 22% over15.6pp between books — shop it
over
+320
DraftKings
under
-210
FanDuel
Chuba Hubbard
Receptions
2.5market 48% over
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Chuba Hubbard
Rushing Yards
70.5market 51% over
we project76.5/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Cooper DeJean Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+8000
DraftKings
under
—
Dallas Goedert
Receiving Yards
61.5market 50% over
we project39.7/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Dallas Goedert
Receptions
3.5market 56% over3.7pp between books — shop it
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+132
FanDuel
Dameon Pierce
Carries
15.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Dameon Pierce
Receiving Yards
15.5market 39% over11.2pp between books — shop it
over
+140
DraftKings
under
-118
FanDuel
Dameon Pierce
Receptions
1.5market 54% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
-125
FanDuel
under
+103
DraftKings
Dameon Pierce
Rushing Yards
52.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Darren Waller
Receiving Yards
5.5market 50% over
we project37.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Darren Waller
Receptions
2.5market 52% over4.1pp between books — shop it
over
-125
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Derrick Brown
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
DeVonta Smith
Receiving Yards
56.5market 50% over
we project78.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
DeVonta Smith
Receptions
4.5market 49% over8.0pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
+116
FanDuel
Dontayvion Wicks
Receiving Yards
27.5market 50% over
we project52.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Dontayvion Wicks
Receptions
2.5market 41% over9.8pp between books — shop it
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jaelan Phillips
Sacks
0.5
over
+140
FanDuel
under
—
Jake Elliott
Kicking Points
5.5market 51% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Jalen Carter
Sacks
0.5
over
+162
FanDuel
under
—
Jalen Coker
Receiving Yards
85.5market 50% over
we project74.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Jalen Coker
Receptions
4.5market 50% over5.1pp between books — shop it
over
-120
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Jalen Hurts
Completions
19.5market 52% over
over
-122
DraftKings
under
-106
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Interceptions
0.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Pass Attempts
32.5market 51% over
we project30.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-118
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Passing TDs
1.5market 33% over
over
+189
DraftKings
under
-245
FanDuel
Jalen Hurts
Passing Yards
202.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jaydon Blue
Rushing Yards
15.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jordan Davis
Sacks
0.5
over
+400
FanDuel
under
—
Kenny Moore II Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
Makai Lemon
Receiving Yards
17.5market 49% over
we project21.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Makai Lemon
Receptions
2.5market 50% over7.4pp between books — shop it
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
Marcus Epps Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
—
Moro Ojomo
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Nick Scott Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+11000
DraftKings
under
—
Nolan Smith Jr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+134
FanDuel
under
—
Patrick Jones II
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Princely Umanmielen
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
Quinyon Mitchell Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+700
DraftKings
under
—
Ryan Fitzgerald
Kicking Points
6.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Tanner McKee
Completions
23.5market 44% over
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Tanner McKee
Interceptions
0.5market 40% over
over
+135
DraftKings
under
-185
DraftKings
Tanner McKee
Pass Attempts
39.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Tanner McKee
Passing TDs
0.5market 50% over18.5pp between books — shop it
over
-116
DraftKings
under
+192
FanDuel
Tanner McKee
Passing Yards
201.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Tanner McKee
Rushing Yards
1.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Tariq Woolen Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+650
DraftKings
under
—
Tetairoa McMillan
Receiving Yards
102.5market 49% over
we project96.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Tetairoa McMillan
Receptions
5.5market 44% over
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-147
DraftKings
Tommy Tremble
Receiving Yards
18.5market 17% over35.9pp between books — shop it
we project20.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+450
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Tommy Tremble
Receptions
1.5market 53% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+102
FanDuel
Trevon Moehrig Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
Zack Baun Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+18000
DraftKings
under
—
Zakee Wheatley Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+18000
DraftKings
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
57.8%
7.8
Yards / att
6.1
364.8
Air yards / gm
231.8
0.240
EPA / dropback
-0.058
+6.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.5
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
300.5 yards in 2 of 4325.5 yards in 2 of 4350.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs CAR
Jalen Hurts
PHI · 5 games, 154 attempts
35
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
18th of 34
30.8 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 7.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
27th of 34
6.1 yards per attempt · 57.8% completions · -0.058 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
22nd of 32
CAR has allowed 6.7 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 173 yards29 attempts × 6.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 17.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
+1.5 to +3.5 on Thu, Oct 15, 2 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 7
+5.5 to +7.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
4 key-number crossings in all.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 41 hours, then left it on Sun, Oct 18, 1 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Tetairoa McMillan26.5% target share · 18.6 PPR last 4
Jalen Coker15.0% target share · 17.4 PPR last 3
John Metchie III6.8% target share · 5.5 PPR last 3
Dontayvion Wicks19.6% target share · 8.4 PPR last 4
DeVonta Smith18.9% target share · 16.2 PPR last 3
Makai Lemon15.4% target share · 5.7 PPR last 4
Chuba Hubbard70.5% of team carries · 19.8 PPR last 4
AJ Dillon19.3% of team carries · 1.7 PPR last 4
Jonathon Brooks10.2% of team carries · 4.7 PPR last 2
Saquon Barkley30.8% of team carries · 5.8 PPR last 4
Darren Waller12.9% target share · 10 PPR last 4
Tommy Tremble10.2% target share · 4.8 PPR last 4
Mitchell Evans4.8% target share · 3.1 PPR last 4
Dallas Goedert11.2% target share · 11.6 PPR last 3
