Crossed 3 & 7 & 10 since opening0.5 points past 102 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
NYG+10.5DraftKings
NO-8.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
NO
93.7%
NYG
6.3%
Teams the market priced at 90–95% won 44 of 46 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 4.2 points.
5.3%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.3%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Tyler Shough · NOQB Index componentsJameis Winston · NYG
59 · B
Index
50 · C
41.0
Attempts / gm
33.0
6.0%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.7%
66.8%
QB Index · vs NYG
Tyler Shough
NO · 5 games, 205 attempts
59
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
2nd of 34
41.0 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 6.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
22nd of 34
6.3 yards per attempt · 66.8% completions · -0.023 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
23rd of 32
NYG has allowed 6.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 244 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 12 prices on record
Open
Opened -2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.
Move
11 reprices since, 49 points of movement in all. It closed +10.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -6.5 to +10.5 along the way, retracing 36 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET.
27% 5+ days out6% 5–2 days out67% Gameday
Biggest move
16 points at once — -6.5 to +9.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 3 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+2.5 to -6.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 3
-6.5 to +9.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 3 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 9 prices on record
Open
Opened 45.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.
Move
8 reprices since, 37 points of movement in all. It closed 60.5 — 15 points higher than the open. It ranged from 36.5 to 60.5 along the way, retracing 22 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 3 PM ET.
5% 5+ days out3% Final two days92% Gameday
Biggest move
14 points at once — 36.5 to 50.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 3 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 10.5 covered 66 of 131 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 110 of 131.
No history held for a total of 60.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
10
390 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 69
Abdul Carter
Sacks
0.5
over
-112
FanDuel
under
—
Alvin Kamara
Receiving Yards
10.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Alvin Kamara
Receptions
2.5market 42% over6.5pp between books — shop it
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
Alvin Kamara
Rushing Yards
24.5market 49% over
we project21.5/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Arvell Reese
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Bryce Lance
Receiving Yards
15.5market 50% over1.8pp between books — shop it
we project11.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Bryce Lance
Receptions
1.5market 66% over22.4pp between books — shop it
over
+106
FanDuel
under
+175
DraftKings
Cam Skattebo
Receiving Yards
2.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Cam Skattebo
Receptions
1.5market 46% over
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-136
FanDuel
Cam Skattebo
Rushing Yards
15.5market 51% over
we project58.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-120
FanDuel
under
-110
FanDuel
Cameron Jordan
Sacks
0.5
over
+290
FanDuel
under
—
Cameron Skattebo
Carries
1.5
over
-161
DraftKings
under
—
Cameron Skattebo
Receiving Yards
0.5market 11% over
over
+1200
DraftKings
under
-161
DraftKings
Cameron Skattebo
Receptions
0.5market 14% over
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Cameron Skattebo
Rushing Yards
9.5
over
+170
DraftKings
under
—
Carl Granderson
Sacks
0.5
over
+120
FanDuel
under
—
Chase Young
Sacks
0.5
over
-158
FanDuel
under
—
Chris Olave
Receiving Yards
59.5market 50% over
we project107.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Chris Olave
Receptions
6.5market 45% over
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
CJ Donaldson
Rushing Yards
24.5market 51% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
D.J. Reader
Sacks
0.5
over
+370
FanDuel
under
—
Daniel Carlson
Kicking Points
7.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Darnell Mooney
Receiving Yards
7.5market 50% over
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Darnell Mooney
Receptions
1.5market 55% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
-147
DraftKings
under
+118
FanDuel
Devaughn Vele
Receiving Yards
47.5market 49% over1.9pp between books — shop it
we project50.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Devaughn Vele
Receptions
4.5market 59% over16.9pp between books — shop it
over
+114
FanDuel
under
+130
DraftKings
Dominic Zvada
Kicking Points
7.5market 50% over
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Dru Phillips Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+650
DraftKings
under
—
Greg Newsome Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+750
DraftKings
under
—
Isaiah Likely
Receiving Yards
69.5market 50% over
we project56.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Isaiah Likely
Receptions
5.5market 49% over4.1pp between books — shop it
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
J.J McCarthy
Rushing Yards
1.5market 50% over
over
-100000
FanDuel
under
-100000
FanDuel
J.J. McCarthy
Rushing Yards
0.5market 52% over
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Completions
20.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Interceptions
0.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Pass Attempts
34.5market 53% over
we project33.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Passing TDs
1.5market 64% over22.6pp between books — shop it
over
+116
FanDuel
under
+160
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Passing Yards
221.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Rushing Yards
4.5market 50% over4.5pp between books — shop it
we project10.5/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+100
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Jevon Holland Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+500
DraftKings
under
—
Jonas Sanker Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+6500
DraftKings
under
—
Julian Blackmon Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+5000
DraftKings
under
—
Justin Reid Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+8000
DraftKings
under
—
Juwan Johnson
Receiving Yards
5.5market 50% over
we project49.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Juwan Johnson
Receptions
4.5market 43% over2.1pp between books — shop it
over
+122
DraftKings
under
-148
FanDuel
Kayvon Thibodeaux
Sacks
0.5
over
+124
FanDuel
under
—
Kendre Miller
Carries
13.5market 51% over
we project7.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Kendre Miller
Receiving Yards
3.5market 49% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Kendre Miller
Receptions
0.5market 62% over
over
-198
FanDuel
under
+146
FanDuel
Kendre Miller
Rushing Yards
29.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it
we project20.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Kool-Aid McKinstry Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+550
DraftKings
under
—
Malachi Fields
Receiving Yards
8.5market 24% over27.8pp between books — shop it
we project29.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+300
DraftKings
under
-118
FanDuel
Malachi Fields
Receptions
1.5market 25% over36.1pp between books — shop it
over
+280
DraftKings
under
+124
FanDuel
Malik Nabers
Receiving Yards
73.5market 50% over
we project65.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Malik Nabers
Receptions
5.5market 56% over2.7pp between books — shop it
over
-130
FanDuel
under
+113
DraftKings
Najee Harris
Rushing Yards
21.5market 51% over
we project24.3/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Noah Fant
Receiving Yards
0.5market 36% over4.4pp between books — shop it
we project18.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+194
FanDuel
under
-222
DraftKings
Noah Fant
Receptions
1.5market 47% over
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-135
DraftKings
Quincy Riley Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+650
DraftKings
under
—
Theo Johnson
Receiving Yards
7.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Theo Johnson
Receptions
1.5market 34% over
over
+175
DraftKings
under
-227
DraftKings
Tremaine Edmunds Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
—
Tyler Shough
Completions
17.5market 56% over
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Interceptions
0.5market 20% over
over
+370
DraftKings
under
-556
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Pass Attempts
32.5market 45% over
we project41.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Passing TDs
1.5market 33% over13.3pp between books — shop it
over
+180
DraftKings
under
-135
FanDuel
Tyler Shough
Passing Yards
212.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Tyler Shough
Rushing Yards
11.5market 51% over
we project14.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Tyree Wilson
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
57.6%
6.3
Yards / att
6.1
326.2
Air yards / gm
317.5
-0.023
EPA / dropback
-0.057
+1.8
CPOE
completion % over expected
-7.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 35.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 4 of 5250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs NO
Jameis Winston
NYG · 4 games, 132 attempts
50
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
13th of 34
33.0 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 7.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
28th of 34
6.1 yards per attempt · 57.6% completions · -0.057 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
10th of 32
NO has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 187 yards31 attempts × 6.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 25.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Crossed 7
-6.5 to +9.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 3 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
4 key-number crossings in all.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Chris Olave27.6% target share · 17.6 PPR last 4
Devaughn Vele18.9% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Bryce Lance8.7% target share · 0.9 PPR last 4
Malik Nabers28.0% target share · 15.3 PPR last 4
Darnell Mooney10.4% target share · 3.8 PPR last 4
Malachi Fields10.4% target share · 6.5 PPR last 4
Travis Etienne27.2% of team carries · 10.3 PPR last 3
Kendre Miller25.4% of team carries · 6 PPR last 4
Alvin Kamara24.6% of team carries · 9.4 PPR last 4
Cam Skattebo57.4% of team carries · 9.3 PPR last 4
Juwan Johnson16.3% target share · 12.8 PPR last 4
Noah Fant6.6% target share · 8.6 PPR last 4
Isaiah Likely29.3% target share · 14.4 PPR last 4
Theo Johnson5.5% target share · 3.9 PPR last 4
