New York JetsatNew England Patriots

Final · New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26

Opened

-9.5

First seen Jul 29

Closed

-9.5

Unmoved

Total

42.5

Prices archived

173

23 spread · 24 total

0.5 points short of 10

Where the best number is

NE-9.5DraftKings

NYJ+9.5DraftKings

Over42.5DraftKings

Under43.5FanDuel

Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

NYJ

1.2%

98.8%

We hold too few games at this price to say what it has been worth historically, so we don't.

1.1%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 101.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.

Head to head

Geno Smith · NYJQB Index componentsDrake Maye · NE

45 · C

Index

49 · C

29.4

Attempts / gm

30.2

9.8%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

6.8%

69.4%

Completion

QB Index · vs NE

Geno Smith

NYJ · 5 games, 147 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

22nd of 34

29.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 9.8% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

14th of 34

7.4 yards per attempt · 69.4% completions · 0.054 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

20th of 32

NE has allowed 6.9 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 196 yards

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 10 prices on record

Open

Opened -9.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.

Move

9 reprices since, 20 points of movement in all. It ended up exactly where it started. It ranged from -11.5 to -5.5 along the way, retracing 20 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET.

18% 5+ days out2% Final two days80% Gameday

Biggest move

5 points at once — -5.5 to -10.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET.

Crossed 7

-7.5 to -5.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 1 PM ET — back through 7.

Crossed 7

-5.5 to -10.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record

Open

Opened 42.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.

Move

7 reprices since, 20 points of movement in all. It ended up exactly where it started. It ranged from 36.5 to 44.5 along the way, retracing 20 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET.

10% 5+ days out5% 5–2 days out85% Gameday

Biggest move

8 points at once — 36.5 to 44.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 3 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 9.5 covered 75 of 154 games.

The range covers a coin flip.

They won outright in 124 of 154.

The total

Totals of 42.5 went over 116 of 221 times.

The range covers a coin flip.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

Player props · 77

A.J. Brown

Receiving Yards

51.5market 50% over

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

A.J. Brown

Receptions

3.5market 54% over4.7pp between books — shop it

over

-141

DraftKings

under

+128

FanDuel

Andre Cisco Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+700

DraftKings

under

—

Andres Borregales

Kicking Points

7.5market 53% over

over

-128

DraftKings

under

-101

DraftKings

Azareye'h Thomas Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+850

DraftKings

under

—

Braelon Allen

Carries

18.5market 53% over

we project11.4/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-132

DraftKings

under

-105

DraftKings

Braelon Allen

Receiving Yards

26.5market 41% over12.2pp between books — shop it

over

+220

DraftKings

under

-174

FanDuel

Braelon Allen

Receptions

2.5market 35% over22.2pp between books — shop it

over

+195

DraftKings

under

-104

FanDuel

Braelon Allen

Rushing Yards

65.5market 51% over

we project47.2/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-110

DraftKings

Brandon Stephens Defensive

Interceptions

1.5

over

+14000

DraftKings

under

—

Christian Barmore

Sacks

0.5

over

+178

FanDuel

under

—

Christian Elliss

Sacks

0.5

over

+290

FanDuel

under

—

Christian Gonzalez Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+700

DraftKings

under

—

Corey Kiner

Rushing Yards

17.5market 50% over

we project16.2/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-114

DraftKings

Craig Woodson Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+750

DraftKings

under

—

Dane Belton Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+850

DraftKings

under

—

David Bailey

Sacks

0.5

over

+106

FanDuel

under

—

Demario Douglas

Receiving Yards

52.5market 50% over

we project29.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Demario Douglas

Receptions

1.5market 49% over12.7pp between books — shop it

over

-111

DraftKings

under

+140

FanDuel

Drake Maye

Carries

4.5market 52% over

we project6.0/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-105

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Completions

18.5market 56% over

over

-147

DraftKings

under

+110

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Interceptions

0.5market 16% over

over

+475

DraftKings

under

-769

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Pass Attempts

32.5market 46% over

we project30.2/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

+100

DraftKings

under

-141

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Passing TDs

1.5market 53% over1.6pp between books — shop it

over

-135

DraftKings

under

+108

FanDuel

Drake Maye

Passing Yards

233.5market 50% over

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-114

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Rushing Yards

30.5market 49% over

we project32.2/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Dre'Mont Jones

Sacks

0.5

over

+124

FanDuel

under

—

Efton Chism III

Receiving Yards

0.5market 49% over

we project24.5/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-120

FanDuel

Efton Chism III

Receptions

1.5market 24% over25.5pp between books — shop it

over

+390

DraftKings

under

-158

FanDuel

Eli Raridon

Receiving Yards

0.5market 40% over

over

+136

FanDuel

under

-182

FanDuel

Eli Raridon

Receptions

1.5market 19% over34.3pp between books — shop it

over

+600

DraftKings

under

-140

FanDuel

Elijah Ponder

Sacks

0.5

over

+112

FanDuel

under

—

Gabe Jacas

Sacks

0.5

over

+178

FanDuel

under

—

Garrett Wilson

Receiving Yards

59.5market 50% over

we project74.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-112

FanDuel

Garrett Wilson

Receptions

6.5market 44% over

over

+114

FanDuel

under

-152

DraftKings

Geno Smith

Completions

20.5market 47% over

over

+100

DraftKings

under

-135

DraftKings

Geno Smith

Interceptions

0.5market 25% over

over

+270

DraftKings

under

-385

DraftKings

Geno Smith

Pass Attempts

27.5market 49% over

we project29.4/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-120

DraftKings

Geno Smith

Passing TDs

1.5market 42% over11.9pp between books — shop it

over

+198

FanDuel

under

-167

DraftKings

Geno Smith

Passing Yards

223.5market 50% over

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-114

DraftKings

Geno Smith

Rushing Yards

-0.5market 49% over18.6pp between books — shop it

we project8.6/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

+194

FanDuel

under

-125

DraftKings

Hunter Henry

Receiving Yards

26.5market 50% over

we project35.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Hunter Henry

Receptions

2.5market 58% over5.5pp between books — shop it

over

-128

FanDuel

under

+120

DraftKings

Isaiah Davis

Rushing Yards

16.5market 40% over11.4pp between books — shop it

over

+132

FanDuel

under

-178

FanDuel

Isaiah Williams

Receiving Yards

0.5market 43% over9.5pp between books — shop it

we project30.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+175

DraftKings

under

-158

FanDuel

Isaiah Williams

Receptions

1.5market 13% over32.7pp between books — shop it

over

+900

DraftKings

under

-180

FanDuel

Jamien Sherwood

Sacks

0.5

over

+350

FanDuel

under

—

Jarvis Brownlee Jr. Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1200

DraftKings

under

—

Jason Sanders

Kicking Points

5.5market 53% over

over

-128

DraftKings

under

-101

DraftKings

Jowon Briggs

Sacks

0.5

over

+270

FanDuel

under

—

Kenyon Sadiq

Receiving Yards

19.5market 50% over

we project29.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Kenyon Sadiq

Receptions

2.5market 43% over2.0pp between books — shop it

over

+119

DraftKings

under

-146

FanDuel

Kevin Byard Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+550

DraftKings

under

—

Kingsley Enagbare

Sacks

0.5

over

+194

FanDuel

under

—

Marcus Jones Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+600

DraftKings

under

—

Mason Taylor

Receiving Yards

24.5market 50% over

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-112

FanDuel

Mason Taylor

Receptions

1.5market 57% over

over

-154

DraftKings

under

+120

DraftKings

Milton Williams

Sacks

0.5

over

+194

FanDuel

under

—

Minkah Fitzpatrick Defensive

Interceptions

1.5

over

+11000

DraftKings

under

—

Omar Cooper Jr.

Receiving Yards

13.5market 51% over

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-108

DraftKings

Omar Cooper Jr.

Receptions

2.5market 39% over3.5pp between books — shop it

over

+162

FanDuel

under

-192

DraftKings

Rhamondre Stevenson

Carries

15.5market 56% over

we project11.4/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-152

DraftKings

under

+110

DraftKings

Rhamondre Stevenson

Receiving Yards

19.5market 51% over

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-110

DraftKings

Rhamondre Stevenson

Receptions

2.5market 59% over2.4pp between books — shop it

over

-158

FanDuel

under

+130

DraftKings

Rhamondre Stevenson

Rushing Yards

54.5market 51% over

we project45.4/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-110

DraftKings

Robert Spillane

Sacks

0.5

over

+300

FanDuel

under

—

Robert Spillane Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1200

DraftKings

under

—

Romeo Doubs

Receiving Yards

30.5market 50% over

we project43.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Romeo Doubs

Receptions

2.5market 42% over4.1pp between books — shop it

over

+120

DraftKings

under

-136

FanDuel

T'Vondre Sweat

Sacks

0.5

over

+410

FanDuel

under

—

Tim Patrick

Receiving Yards

0.5market 40% over3.1pp between books — shop it

over

+136

FanDuel

under

-182

FanDuel

Tim Patrick

Receptions

1.5market 18% over36.2pp between books — shop it

over

+600

DraftKings

under

-130

FanDuel

TreVeyon Henderson

Carries

7.5market 52% over

we project10.5/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-147

DraftKings

under

-120

DraftKings

TreVeyon Henderson

Receiving Yards

9.5market 31% over12.1pp between books — shop it

over

+230

DraftKings

under

-182

FanDuel

TreVeyon Henderson

Receptions

1.5market 35% over6.0pp between books — shop it

over

+200

DraftKings

under

-172

DraftKings

TreVeyon Henderson

Rushing Yards

28.5market 50% over

we project40.8/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-115

DraftKings

Will McDonald IV

Sacks

0.5

over

-102

FanDuel

under

—

Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.