Final · Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20
Opened
-3.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-7.5
-4 since open
Total
32.5
Prices archived
166
21 spread · 21 total
Crossed 7 since opening0.5 points past 713 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
IND+5.5FanDuel
TEN+7.5DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
TEN
90.3%
IND
9.7%
Teams the market priced at 90–95% won 44 of 46 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 4.2 points.
6.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.
Head to head
Cam Ward · TENQB Index componentsDaniel Jones · IND
52 · B
Index
54 · B
31.0
Attempts / gm
35.2
6.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.9%
63.2%
Completion
QB Index · vs IND
Cam Ward
TEN · 5 games, 155 attempts
52
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
17th of 34
31.0 attempts per game · team runs 53 plays at 59% pass · sacked on 6.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
5.8 yards per attempt · 63.2% completions · -0.185 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
4th of 32
IND has allowed 8.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 168 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record
Open
Opened -3.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.
Move
7 reprices since, 15 points of movement in all. It closed -7.5 — the favourite is 4 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -11.5 to -3.5 along the way, retracing 11 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET.
23% 5+ days out77% Gameday
Biggest move
6 points at once — -5.5 to -11.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET.
Crossed 7
-5.5 to -11.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Crossed 10
-5.5 to -11.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.
Crossed 10
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 10 prices on record
Open
Opened 48.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.
Move
9 reprices since, 18 points of movement in all. It closed 32.5 — 16 points lower than the open. It ranged from 32.5 to 48.5 along the way, retracing 2 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 1 PM ET.
33% 5+ days out67% Gameday
Biggest move
5 points at once — 41.5 to 36.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 7.5 covered 132 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 209 of 275.
The total
Totals of 32.5 went over 4 of 6 times.
Only 6 games at this number — too few to read.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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Player props · 72
Adari Haulcy Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1200
DraftKings
under
—
Akeem Davis-Gaither Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
Alontae Taylor Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+13000
DraftKings
under
—
Amani Hooker Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+600
DraftKings
under
—
Andrew Ogletree
Receiving Yards
0.5
over
+110
DraftKings
under
—
Andrew Ogletree
Receptions
0.5market 52% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
Calvin Ridley
Receiving Yards
12.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Calvin Ridley
Receptions
1.5market 37% over2.7pp between books — shop it
over
+150
DraftKings
under
-180
FanDuel
Cam Ward
Passing TDs
0.5market 69% over
over
-280
FanDuel
under
+205
FanDuel
Cam Ward
Passing Yards
158.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Cam Ward
Rushing Yards
11.5market 49% over
we project11.8/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-122
FanDuel
Cameron Ward
Completions
15.5market 53% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Interceptions
1.5market 27% over
over
+250
DraftKings
under
-357
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Pass Attempts
29.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Passing TDs
0.5market 43% over
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-156
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Passing Yards
159.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Rushing Yards
9.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Camryn Bynum Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+6000
DraftKings
under
—
Carnell Tate
Receiving Yards
69.5market 50% over11.6pp between books — shop it
we project54.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+140
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Carnell Tate
Receptions
4.5market 42% over2.7pp between books — shop it
over
+125
DraftKings
under
-148
FanDuel
Charvarius Ward Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+700
DraftKings
under
—
Cody Barton Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1500
DraftKings
under
—
Cor'Dale Flott Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+950
DraftKings
under
—
Daniel Jones
Completions
21.5market 44% over
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Interceptions
2.5market 18% over
over
+425
DraftKings
under
-667
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Pass Attempts
34.5market 45% over
we project35.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Passing TDs
1.5market 31% over14.3pp between books — shop it
over
+200
DraftKings
under
-144
FanDuel
Daniel Jones
Passing Yards
232.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Rushing Yards
6.5market 50% over2.2pp between books — shop it
we project5.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
DeForest Buckner
Sacks
0.5
over
+110
FanDuel
under
—
Drew Ogletree
Receiving Yards
7.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Drew Ogletree
Receptions
1.5market 39% over
over
+140
FanDuel
under
-188
FanDuel
Elic Ayomanor
Receiving Yards
14.5market 50% over
we project26.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Elic Ayomanor
Receptions
1.5market 43% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-156
DraftKings
Grover Stewart
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Gunnar Helm
Receiving Yards
15.5market 50% over
we project12.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Gunnar Helm
Receptions
2.5market 40% over3.9pp between books — shop it
over
+136
DraftKings
under
-154
FanDuel
Jacob Martin
Sacks
0.5
over
+205
FanDuel
under
—
Jeffery Simmons
Sacks
0.5
over
+154
FanDuel
under
—
Jermaine Johnson II
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Joey Slye
Kicking Points
5.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-119
DraftKings
John Franklin-Myers
Sacks
0.5
over
+235
FanDuel
under
—
Jonathan Taylor
Carries
20.5market 53% over
we project20.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Jonathan Taylor
Receiving Yards
44.5market 50% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor
Receptions
2.5market 39% over19.0pp between books — shop it
over
+140
DraftKings
under
+116
FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor
Rushing Yards
89.5market 50% over
we project79.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Josh Downs
Receiving Yards
21.5market 50% over
we project49.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Josh Downs
Receptions
3.5market 37% over24.7pp between books — shop it
over
+165
DraftKings
under
+124
FanDuel
JT Tuimoloau
Sacks
0.5
over
+470
FanDuel
under
—
Justin Walley Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+750
DraftKings
under
—
Keenan Allen
Receiving Yards
57.5market 50% over
we project36.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Keenan Allen
Receptions
4.5market 50% over5.1pp between books — shop it
over
-120
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Laiatu Latu
Sacks
0.5
over
+146
FanDuel
under
—
Laquon Treadwell
Receiving Yards
7.5market 49% over3.6pp between books — shop it
we project31.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+104
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Laquon Treadwell
Receptions
2.5market 34% over13.1pp between books — shop it
over
+175
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
Mo Alie-Cox
Receiving Yards
1.5
over
+180
DraftKings
under
—
Mo Alie-Cox
Receptions
1.5market 45% over23.2pp between books — shop it
over
+150
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Sauce Gardner Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Seth McGowan
Rushing Yards
13.5market 49% over
we project12.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Spencer Shrader
Kicking Points
8.5market 47% over
over
+102
DraftKings
under
-130
DraftKings
Tony Adams Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
—
Tony Pollard
Carries
13.5market 57% over
we project13.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+115
DraftKings
Tony Pollard
Receiving Yards
5.5market 49% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Tony Pollard
Receptions
1.5market 34% over19.5pp between books — shop it
over
+170
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Tony Pollard
Rushing Yards
60.5market 49% over
we project54.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Tyjae Spears
Receiving Yards
19.5market 50% over
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Tyjae Spears
Receptions
2.5market 51% over5.0pp between books — shop it
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Tyjae Spears
Rushing Yards
11.5market 49% over3.5pp between books — shop it
we project13.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Tyler Warren
Receiving Yards
48.5market 50% over
we project42.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Tyler Warren
Receptions
5.5market 43% over
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-152
DraftKings
Wan'Dale Robinson
Receiving Yards
44.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it
we project35.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Wan'Dale Robinson
Receptions
3.5market 51% over10.2pp between books — shop it
over
-125
DraftKings
under
+142
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
61.4%
5.8
Yards / att
5.8
215.8
Air yards / gm
256.0
-0.185
EPA / dropback
-0.130
+2.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 12.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 4 of 5175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs TEN
Daniel Jones
IND · 5 games, 176 attempts
54
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
11th of 34
35.2 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 4.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
29th of 34
5.8 yards per attempt · 61.4% completions · -0.130 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
6th of 32
TEN has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 194 yards33 attempts × 5.8 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 20.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
-10.5 to -7.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 3 PM ET — back through 10.
Held 7
It sat on 7 for 6 days, then left it on Sun, Oct 18, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Carnell Tate25.7% target share · 10.2 PPR last 4
Wan'Dale Robinson20.8% target share · 10.7 PPR last 4
Elic Ayomanor8.3% target share · 4.2 PPR last 4
Josh Downs20.5% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4
Keenan Allen17.5% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4
Laquon Treadwell11.4% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
Tony Pollard63.6% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Tyjae Spears15.9% of team carries · 5.2 PPR last 4
Nicholas Singleton6.5% of team carries · 0.6 PPR last 2
Jonathan Taylor74.8% of team carries · 18.1 PPR last 4
Gunnar Helm9.7% target share · 2.5 PPR last 4
Daniel Bellinger4.9% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4
Tyler Warren21.7% target share · 14.9 PPR last 4