Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
BAL
6.6%
CLE
93.4%
Teams the market priced at 90–95% won 44 of 46 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 4.2 points.
6.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.
Head to head
Lamar Jackson · BALQB Index componentsDeshaun Watson · CLE
47 · C
Index
41 · D
24.0
Attempts / gm
29.6
6.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
11.4%
70.8%
QB Index · vs CLE
Lamar Jackson
BAL · 4 games, 96 attempts
47
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
31st of 34
24.0 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 46% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
1st of 34
10.1 yards per attempt · 70.8% completions · 0.363 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
21st of 32
CLE has allowed 6.9 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 257 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 14 prices on record
Open
Opened +7 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.
Move
13 reprices since, 21.5 points of movement in all. It closed +6.5 — the favourite is 0.5 points smaller than at the open. It ranged from +2.5 to +10.5 along the way, retracing 21 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET.
30% 5+ days out14% 5–2 days out2% Final two days54% Gameday
Biggest move
4 points at once — +6.5 to +2.5 on Tue, Oct 6, 8 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+6.5 to +2.5 on Tue, Oct 6, 8 PM ET — back through 3.
Crossed 7
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 14 prices on record
Open
Opened 45.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.
Move
13 reprices since, 33 points of movement in all. It closed 22.5 — 23 points lower than the open. It ranged from 22.5 to 45.5 along the way, retracing 10 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET.
21% 5+ days out12% 5–2 days out3% Final two days64% Gameday
Biggest move
10 points at once — 32.5 to 22.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 3 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 6.5 covered 151 of 325 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 234 of 325.
No history held for a total of 22.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
10
390 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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Player props · 72
Andre Szmyt
Kicking Points
6.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Audric Estime
Receiving Yards
3.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Audric Estime
Receptions
1.5market 34% over23.6pp between books — shop it
over
+170
DraftKings
under
+116
FanDuel
Audric Estime
Rushing Yards
16.5market 51% over3.6pp between books — shop it
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Calais Campbell
Sacks
0.5
over
+200
FanDuel
under
—
Denzel Boston
Receiving Yards
52.5market 50% over
we project66.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Denzel Boston
Receptions
3.5market 53% over5.0pp between books — shop it
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-105
DraftKings
Denzel Ward Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+600
DraftKings
under
—
Derek Barnett
Sacks
0.5
over
+240
FanDuel
under
—
Derrick Henry
Carries
22.5market 54% over
we project22.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Derrick Henry
Receiving Yards
2.5market 19% over14.7pp between books — shop it
over
+400
DraftKings
under
-260
FanDuel
Derrick Henry
Receptions
1.5market 21% over21.6pp between books — shop it
over
+350
DraftKings
under
-172
FanDuel
Derrick Henry
Rushing Yards
89.5market 50% over
we project95.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Deshaun Watson
Carries
6.5market 56% over
we project7.4/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Completions
16.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Interceptions
0.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Pass Attempts
28.5market 49% over
we project29.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Passing TDs
1.5market 40% over3.8pp between books — shop it
over
+158
FanDuel
under
-185
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Passing Yards
204.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Rushing Yards
26.5market 49% over
we project33.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-106
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+18000
DraftKings
under
—
Grant Delpit Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+750
DraftKings
under
—
Harold Fannin Jr.
Receiving Yards
23.5market 50% over
we project31.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Harold Fannin Jr.
Receptions
4.5market 47% over4.5pp between books — shop it
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-135
DraftKings
Isaiah McGuire
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
Ja'Kobi Lane
Receiving Yards
40.5market 35% over
over
+174
FanDuel
under
-233
DraftKings
Ja'Kobi Lane
Receptions
1.5market 42% over
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-159
DraftKings
Jaleel McLaughlin
Receiving Yards
8.5market 51% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-106
FanDuel
Jaleel McLaughlin
Receptions
2.5market 56% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
-138
FanDuel
under
+110
DraftKings
Jaleel McLaughlin
Rushing Yards
28.5market 51% over
over
-122
FanDuel
under
-108
FanDuel
Jared Verse
Sacks
0.5
over
+116
FanDuel
under
—
Jaylinn Hawkins Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+750
DraftKings
under
—
Jerry Jeudy
Receiving Yards
23.5market 43% over2.5pp between books — shop it
we project20.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-138
FanDuel
Jerry Jeudy
Receptions
1.5market 49% over4.1pp between books — shop it
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Josh Cuevas
Receiving Yards
31.5market 41% over2.4pp between books — shop it
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-158
FanDuel
Josh Cuevas
Receptions
0.5market 57% over6.3pp between books — shop it
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+152
FanDuel
Justice Hill
Receiving Yards
9.5market 24% over12.5pp between books — shop it
over
+290
DraftKings
under
-220
FanDuel
Justice Hill
Receptions
1.5market 50% over2.8pp between books — shop it
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Justice Hill
Rushing Yards
12.5market 50% over
we project26.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
KC Concepcion
Receiving Yards
39.5market 51% over
we project29.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
KC Concepcion
Receptions
4.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-132
FanDuel
Kyle Hamilton Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+950
DraftKings
under
—
Malaki Starks Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+750
DraftKings
under
—
Maliek Collins
Sacks
0.5
over
+154
FanDuel
under
—
Mark Andrews
Receiving Yards
25.5market 50% over
we project35.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Mark Andrews
Receptions
3.5market 41% over7.5pp between books — shop it
over
+125
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
Marlon Humphrey Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+600
DraftKings
under
—
Mason Graham
Sacks
0.5
over
+210
FanDuel
under
—
Mike Green
Sacks
0.5
over
+220
FanDuel
under
—
Nate Wiggins Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+8000
DraftKings
under
—
Nnamdi Madubuike
Sacks
0.5
over
+158
FanDuel
under
—
Quincy Williams
Sacks
0.5
over
+235
FanDuel
under
—
Quinshon Judkins
Carries
14.5market 48% over
we project14.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-104
DraftKings
under
-123
DraftKings
Quinshon Judkins
Receiving Yards
15.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Quinshon Judkins
Receptions
2.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+104
FanDuel
Quinshon Judkins
Rushing Yards
46.5market 50% over
we project44.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Rashod Bateman
Receiving Yards
7.5market 50% over
we project46.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Rashod Bateman
Receptions
1.5market 53% over4.6pp between books — shop it
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+120
FanDuel
Ronnie Hickman Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+650
DraftKings
under
—
Tavius Robinson
Sacks
0.5
over
+120
FanDuel
under
—
Trey Hendrickson
Sacks
0.5
over
-225
FanDuel
under
—
Tyler Huntley
Carries
5.5market 53% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Tyler Huntley
Completions
18.5market 56% over
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
Tyler Huntley
Interceptions
0.5market 25% over
over
+280
DraftKings
under
-400
DraftKings
Tyler Huntley
Pass Attempts
27.5market 47% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Tyler Huntley
Passing TDs
1.5market 17% over16.9pp between books — shop it
over
+450
DraftKings
under
-250
FanDuel
Tyler Huntley
Passing Yards
163.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Tyler Huntley
Rushing Yards
22.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Tyler Loop
Kicking Points
7.5market 49% over
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-119
DraftKings
Tyson Campbell Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
Zay Flowers
Receiving Yards
59.5market 50% over
we project101.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Zay Flowers
Receptions
5.5market 43% over4.0pp between books — shop it
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
64.2%
10.1
Yards / att
6.8
243.0
Air yards / gm
211.8
0.363
EPA / dropback
0.024
+8.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
-1.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 14.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 4225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs BAL
Deshaun Watson
CLE · 5 games, 148 attempts
41
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
21st of 34
29.6 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 54% pass · sacked on 11.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
20th of 34
6.8 yards per attempt · 64.2% completions · 0.024 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
19th of 32
BAL has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 180 yards26 attempts × 6.8 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 8.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
+3.5 to +7.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Crossed 10
+7.5 to +10.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.
5 key-number crossings in all.
Held 7
It sat on 7 for 43 days, then left it on Thu, Sep 10, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Zay Flowers23.1% target share · 20.4 PPR last 4
Rashod Bateman15.7% target share · 11.3 PPR last 4
Devontez Walker5.2% target share · 4.4 PPR last 4
Denzel Boston20.3% target share · 13.8 PPR last 4
KC Concepcion19.6% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Jerry Jeudy10.1% target share · 4 PPR last 4
Derrick Henry72.6% of team carries · 19.1 PPR last 4
Justice Hill11.5% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 4
Quinshon Judkins62.4% of team carries · 12.3 PPR last 4
Raheim Sanders7.7% of team carries · 4.3 PPR last 4
Mark Andrews23.1% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
Matthew Hibner3.7% target share · 6 PPR last 3
Harold Fannin Jr.18.2% target share · 11.9 PPR last 4