Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
CHI
90.6%
ATL
9.4%
Teams the market priced at 90–95% won 44 of 46 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 4.2 points.
6.2%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.2%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.
Head to head
Tyson Bagent · CHIQB Index componentsMichael Penix Jr. · ATL
17 · F
Index
60 · B+
21.3
Attempts / gm
25.7
5.9%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.9%
65.6%
Completion
QB Index · vs ATL
Tyson Bagent
CHI · 3 games, 64 attempts
17
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
32nd of 34
21.3 attempts per game · team runs 71 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 5.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 34
6.4 yards per attempt · 65.6% completions · -0.077 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
27th of 32
ATL has allowed 6.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 207 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 11 prices on record
Open
Opened +3 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.
Move
10 reprices since, 38.5 points of movement in all. It closed +7.5 — the favourite is 4.5 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -1.5 to +14.5 along the way, retracing 34 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET.
23% 5+ days out4% 5–2 days out73% Gameday
Biggest move
9 points at once — +5.5 to +14.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 3 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+2.5 to +9.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 7
+2.5 to +9.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 14 prices on record
Open
Opened 47.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.
Move
13 reprices since, 24 points of movement in all. It closed 57.5 — 10 points higher than the open. It ranged from 47.5 to 57.5 along the way, retracing 14 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET.
8% 5+ days out17% 5–2 days out4% Final two days71% Gameday
Biggest move
8 points at once — 49.5 to 57.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 4 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 7.5 covered 132 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 209 of 275.
The total
Totals of 57.5 went over 3 of 4 times.
Only 4 games at this number — too few to read.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 68
Austin Booker
Sacks
0.5
over
+188
FanDuel
under
—
Bijan Robinson
Carries
11.5market 50% over
we project20.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Bijan Robinson
Receiving Yards
29.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Bijan Robinson
Receptions
3.5market 35% over30.5pp between books — shop it
over
+340
DraftKings
under
+140
DraftKings
Bijan Robinson
Rushing Yards
89.5market 8% over48.5pp between books — shop it
we project116.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+2000
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Brandon Dorlus
Sacks
0.5
over
+240
FanDuel
under
—
Brian Robinson Jr.
Carries
4.5market 40% over
we project10.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-182
DraftKings
Brian Robinson Jr.
Rushing Yards
14.5market 50% over48.5pp between books — shop it
we project42.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+2000
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Cairo Santos
Kicking Points
7.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Caleb Williams
Carries
3.5market 55% over
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Caleb Williams
Completions
28.5market 57% over
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+115
DraftKings
Caleb Williams
Interceptions
0.5market 15% over
over
+550
DraftKings
under
-909
DraftKings
Caleb Williams
Pass Attempts
36.5market 50% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Caleb Williams
Passing TDs
1.5market 20% over47.6pp between books — shop it
over
+750
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
Caleb Williams
Passing Yards
227.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Caleb Williams
Rushing Yards
9.5market 23% over40.2pp between books — shop it
over
+550
DraftKings
under
-106
FanDuel
Cameron Thomas
Sacks
0.5
over
+300
FanDuel
under
—
Cole Kmet
Receiving Yards
2.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Cole Kmet
Receptions
1.5market 53% over20.1pp between books — shop it
over
+168
FanDuel
under
+100
DraftKings
Colston Loveland
Receiving Yards
58.5market 50% over
we project22.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Colston Loveland
Receptions
3.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-122
DraftKings
D'Andre Swift
Carries
20.5market 44% over
we project15.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-152
DraftKings
D'Andre Swift
Receiving Yards
26.5market 25% over21.3pp between books — shop it
over
+425
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
D'Andre Swift
Receptions
2.5market 47% over
over
+101
DraftKings
under
-130
DraftKings
D'Andre Swift
Rushing Yards
59.5market 24% over35.4pp between books — shop it
we project70.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+475
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Daniel Hardy
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Devin Bush
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Devin Bush Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+19000
DraftKings
under
—
Dillon Thieneman Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+600
DraftKings
under
—
Divine Deablo Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1900
DraftKings
under
—
Drake London
Receiving Yards
89.5market 32% over28.7pp between books — shop it
we project97.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+310
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Drake London
Receptions
6.5market 17% over32.1pp between books — shop it
over
+700
DraftKings
under
-152
DraftKings
Gervon Dexter Sr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+205
FanDuel
under
—
Grady Jarrett
Sacks
0.5
over
+300
FanDuel
under
—
Harold Perkins Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+2000
DraftKings
under
—
Jahan Dotson
Receiving Yards
27.5market 50% over
we project29.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jahan Dotson
Receptions
1.5market 65% over7.6pp between books — shop it
over
-162
FanDuel
under
+165
DraftKings
Jaylon Johnson Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+700
DraftKings
under
—
Jessie Bates Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+425
DraftKings
under
—
Kalif Raymond
Receiving Yards
24.5market 28% over33.3pp between books — shop it
we project45.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+400
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Kalif Raymond
Receptions
2.5market 39% over36.8pp between books — shop it
over
+275
DraftKings
under
+135
DraftKings
Kentavius Street
Sacks
0.5
over
+410
FanDuel
under
—
Kyle Pitts
Receiving Yards
60.5market 37% over
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+154
FanDuel
under
-210
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts
Receptions
2.5market 60% over
over
-178
FanDuel
under
+132
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Receiving Yards
60.5
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+110
DraftKings
under
—
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Receptions
5.5
over
+110
DraftKings
under
—
Luther Burden III
Receiving Yards
60.5market 50% over
we project53.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Luther Burden III
Receptions
4.5market 49% over4.1pp between books — shop it
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
Luther Burden III
Rushing Yards
0.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Michael Penix Jr.
Completions
18.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Interceptions
0.5market 38% over
over
+150
DraftKings
under
-200
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Pass Attempts
32.5market 50% over
we project25.7/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Passing TDs
1.5market 67% over21.4pp between books — shop it
over
+100
FanDuel
under
+180
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Passing Yards
236.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Rushing Yards
0.5market 44% over2.2pp between books — shop it
we project1.3/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-152
DraftKings
Mike Hughes Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+15000
DraftKings
under
—
Nick Folk
Kicking Points
7.5market 46% over
over
+106
DraftKings
under
-137
DraftKings
Rome Odunze
Receiving Yards
43.5market 50% over
we project54.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Rome Odunze
Receptions
2.5market 61% over
over
-179
DraftKings
under
+140
FanDuel
Roschon Johnson
Receiving Yards
5.5market 52% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-104
DraftKings
Roschon Johnson
Receptions
1.5market 36% over3.5pp between books — shop it
over
+155
DraftKings
under
-180
FanDuel
Roschon Johnson
Rushing Yards
30.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Samson Ebukam
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Tyrique Stevenson Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Xavier Watts Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+500
DraftKings
under
—
Za'Darius Smith
Sacks
0.5
over
+140
FanDuel
under
—
Zachariah Branch
Receiving Yards
9.5market 30% over31.4pp between books — shop it
over
+340
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Zachariah Branch
Receptions
1.5market 22% over25.9pp between books — shop it
over
+400
DraftKings
under
-158
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
67.5%
6.4
Yards / att
9.3
144.3
Air yards / gm
163.3
-0.077
EPA / dropback
0.343
+1.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
+1.8
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 32.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
100.5 yards in 1 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs CHI
Michael Penix Jr.
ATL · 3 games, 77 attempts
60
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
28th of 34
25.7 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 45% pass · sacked on 4.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
7th of 34
9.3 yards per attempt · 67.5% completions · 0.343 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
2nd of 32
CHI has allowed 8.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 238 yards25 attempts × 9.3 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 25.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 3250.5 yards in 1 of 3275.5 yards in 0 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Crossed 7
+9.5 to +5.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 2 PM ET — back through 7.
6 key-number crossings in all.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 70 days, then left it on Tue, Oct 6, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Luther Burden III21.7% target share · 11.6 PPR last 4
Rome Odunze18.0% target share · 8.8 PPR last 4
Kalif Raymond16.8% target share · 9 PPR last 4
Drake London28.1% target share · 17.7 PPR last 4
Jahan Dotson13.3% target share · 6.5 PPR last 4
Zachariah Branch6.3% target share · 2.9 PPR last 4
D'Andre Swift45.9% of team carries · 12.1 PPR last 4
Kyle Monangai35.3% of team carries · 14.8 PPR last 4
Roschon Johnson5.3% of team carries · 4.1 PPR last 3
Bijan Robinson65.8% of team carries · 22.5 PPR last 4
Colston Loveland14.3% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Cole Kmet5.6% target share · 1.3 PPR last 4
Sam Roush3.1% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4
Kyle Pitts11.7% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
