Crossed 3 since opening2 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
DEN-4.5DraftKings
SEA+6.5FanDuel
Over37.5DraftKings
Under38.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
SEA
25.8%
DEN
74.2%
Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
6.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.
Head to head
Sam Darnold · SEAQB Index componentsBo Nix · DEN
32 · F
Index
27 · F
29.8
Attempts / gm
31.5
8.6%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.1%
60.4%
Completion
QB Index · vs DEN
Sam Darnold
SEA · 5 games, 149 attempts
32
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
20th of 34
29.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 55% pass · sacked on 8.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
6.9 yards per attempt · 60.4% completions · -0.135 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
24th of 32
DEN has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 6 games
≈ 209 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record
Open
Opened +2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 79 days before kickoff.
Move
5 reprices since, 10 points of movement in all. It closed -4.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -4.5 to +3 along the way, retracing 3 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Oct 15, 9 PM ET.
10% 5+ days out20% 5–2 days out70% Gameday
Biggest move
7 points at once — +2.5 to -4.5 on Thu, Oct 15, 9 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+2.5 to -4.5 on Thu, Oct 15, 9 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 42 hours, then left it on Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 5 prices on record
Open
Opened 43.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 79 days before kickoff.
Move
4 reprices since, 6 points of movement in all. It closed 37.5 — 6 points lower than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Oct 12, 2 PM ET.
17% 5+ days out33% 5–2 days out50% Gameday
Biggest move
3 points at once — 40.5 to 37.5 on Thu, Oct 15, 9 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 4.5 covered 127 of 254 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 169 of 254.
The total
Totals of 37.5 went over 101 of 189 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 89
A.J. Barner
Receiving Yards
18.5market 49% over
we project24.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
A.J. Barner
Receptions
2.5market 40% over
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-182
DraftKings
AJ Barner
Receiving Yards
18.5market 50% over
we project24.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
AJ Barner
Receptions
2.5market 59% over
over
-172
FanDuel
under
+128
FanDuel
Alex Singleton Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1400
DraftKings
under
—
Bo Nix
Carries
3.5market 57% over
we project3.6/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+115
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Completions
20.5market 51% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Interceptions
0.5market 40% over
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-182
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Pass Attempts
33.5market 53% over
we project32.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Passing TDs
1.5market 35% over
over
+175
FanDuel
under
-217
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Passing Yards
197.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Rushing Yards
13.5market 50% over
we project7.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Brandon Jones Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+600
DraftKings
under
—
Byron Murphy II
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Cooper Kupp
Receiving Yards
22.5market 51% over
we project25.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Cooper Kupp
Receptions
2.5market 45% over2.4pp between books — shop it
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Courtland Sutton
Receiving Yards
23.5market 50% over
we project20.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Courtland Sutton
Receptions
3.5market 40% over
over
+135
DraftKings
under
-172
DraftKings
DeMarcus Lawrence
Sacks
0.5
over
+230
FanDuel
under
—
Derick Hall
Sacks
0.5
over
+370
FanDuel
under
—
Devon Witherspoon Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
Dondrea Tillman
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Elijah Arroyo
Receiving Yards
0.5market 39% over
over
+148
FanDuel
under
-192
DraftKings
Elijah Arroyo
Receptions
0.5
over
+125
DraftKings
under
—
Emanuel Wilson
Carries
16.5market 45% over
we project14.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Emanuel Wilson
Receiving Yards
9.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Emanuel Wilson
Receptions
1.5market 39% over11.6pp between books — shop it
over
+140
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Emanuel Wilson
Rushing Yards
66.5market 50% over
we project50.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Evan Engram
Receiving Yards
20.5market 50% over
we project24.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Evan Engram
Receptions
2.5market 48% over9.1pp between books — shop it
over
-105
DraftKings
under
+114
FanDuel
George Holani
Carries
4.5market 44% over
we project5.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+112
DraftKings
under
-145
DraftKings
George Holani
Receiving Yards
10.5market 49% over
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
George Holani
Receptions
1.5market 57% over
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+124
FanDuel
George Holani
Rushing Yards
14.5market 21% over38.8pp between books — shop it
we project15.4/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+600
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
J.K. Dobbins
Carries
19.5market 48% over
we project12.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
J.K. Dobbins
Receiving Yards
3.5market 49% over
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-119
DraftKings
J.K. Dobbins
Receptions
1.5market 34% over
over
+188
FanDuel
under
-233
DraftKings
J.K. Dobbins
Rushing Yards
64.5market 50% over
we project45.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Ja'Quan McMillian Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+11000
DraftKings
under
—
Jahdae Barron Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+18000
DraftKings
under
—
Jarran Reed
Sacks
0.5
over
+450
FanDuel
under
—
Jason Myers
Kicking Points
7.5market 52% over
over
-122
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Receiving Yards
93.5market 50% over
we project116.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Receptions
6.5market 54% over
over
-137
DraftKings
under
+107
DraftKings
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rushing Yards
0.5market 25% over
over
+290
FanDuel
under
-385
DraftKings
Jaylen Waddle
Receiving Yards
48.5market 49% over
we project40.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jaylen Waddle
Receptions
4.5market 38% over7.7pp between books — shop it
over
+145
DraftKings
under
-140
FanDuel
Jonah Elliss
Sacks
0.5
over
+320
FanDuel
under
—
Josh Jobe Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
Julian Love Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+550
DraftKings
under
—
Justin Strnad
Sacks
0.5
over
+410
FanDuel
under
—
Leonard Williams
Sacks
0.5
over
+210
FanDuel
under
—
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
Receiving Yards
0.5market 38% over
over
+150
DraftKings
under
-200
DraftKings
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
Receptions
0.5market 40% over13.0pp between books — shop it
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Malcolm Roach
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Marvin Mims
Receiving Yards
8.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Marvin Mims
Receptions
1.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Marvin Mims
Rushing Yards
9.5
over
+500
DraftKings
under
—
Marvin Mims Jr.
Receiving Yards
8.5market 45% over
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-140
FanDuel
Marvin Mims Jr.
Receptions
1.5market 39% over
over
+140
FanDuel
under
-188
FanDuel
Marvin Mims Jr.
Rushing Yards
0.5market 49% over
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-122
FanDuel
Nick Emmanwori
Sacks
0.5
over
+750
FanDuel
under
—
Nick Emmanwori Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+14000
DraftKings
under
—
Nik Bonitto
Sacks
0.5
over
-138
FanDuel
under
—
Nik Bonitto Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+7000
DraftKings
under
—
Que Robinson
Sacks
0.5
over
+430
FanDuel
under
—
Rashid Shaheed
Receiving Yards
21.5market 50% over
we project19.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Rashid Shaheed
Receptions
2.5market 42% over5.1pp between books — shop it
over
+148
FanDuel
under
-161
DraftKings
Rashid Shaheed
Rushing Yards
0.5market 36% over
over
+160
DraftKings
under
-215
FanDuel
RJ Harvey
Carries
4.5market 54% over
we project3.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-133
DraftKings
under
+104
DraftKings
RJ Harvey
Receiving Yards
50.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
RJ Harvey
Receptions
3.5market 51% over2.4pp between books — shop it
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
RJ Harvey
Rushing Yards
17.5market 51% over
we project14.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Sam Darnold
Carries
1.5market 47% over
we project1.3/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Completions
19.5market 47% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Interceptions
0.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Pass Attempts
30.5market 51% over
we project24.5/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Passing TDs
1.5market 43% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
+128
FanDuel
under
-154
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Passing Yards
220.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Rushing Yards
2.5market 50% over
we project4.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Tory Horton
Receiving Yards
0.5market 40% over5.5pp between books — shop it
over
+135
DraftKings
under
-144
FanDuel
Tory Horton
Receptions
0.5market 43% over8.0pp between books — shop it
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Troy Franklin
Receiving Yards
8.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Troy Franklin
Receptions
1.5market 60% over9.0pp between books — shop it
over
-125
FanDuel
under
+130
DraftKings
Tyler Badie
Receiving Yards
6.5
over
-109
DraftKings
under
—
Uchenna Nwosu
Sacks
0.5
over
+240
FanDuel
under
—
Uchenna Nwosu Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1900
DraftKings
under
—
Wil Lutz
Kicking Points
7.5market 45% over
over
+108
DraftKings
under
-139
DraftKings
Zach Allen
Sacks
0.5
over
+134
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
60.3%
6.9
Yards / att
5.6
215.4
Air yards / gm
154.8
-0.135
EPA / dropback
-0.076
-4.6
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.1
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 16.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs SEA
Bo Nix
DEN · 6 games, 189 attempts
27
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
16th of 34
31.5 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 4.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
29th of 34
5.6 yards per attempt · 60.3% completions · -0.076 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
32nd of 32
SEA has allowed 5.3 yards per attempt across 6 games
≈ 168 yards30 attempts × 5.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 3 of 6175.5 yards in 3 of 6200.5 yards in 2 of 6
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba34.9% target share · 24 PPR last 4
Rashid Shaheed14.8% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Cooper Kupp13.2% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Jaylen Waddle22.5% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Courtland Sutton16.2% target share · 5.7 PPR last 4
Pat Bryant7.5% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Emanuel Wilson54.0% of team carries · 11.7 PPR last 4
George Holani19.3% of team carries · 6.7 PPR last 4
Jadarian Price17.4% of team carries · 4.7 PPR last 3
J.K. Dobbins57.0% of team carries · 10.6 PPR last 4
AJ Barner12.7% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4
Evan Engram11.0% target share · 3.6 PPR last 4
Nate Adkins2.9% target share · 6.9 PPR last 3
