Crossed 3 since opening1 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
LAR-1.5DraftKings
BUF+2.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
BUF
45.3%
LAR
54.7%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
6.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.
Head to head
Josh Allen · BUFQB Index componentsMatthew Stafford · LA
41 · D
Index
75 · A
27.6
Attempts / gm
43.2
6.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
3.1%
65.9%
Completion
QB Index · vs LA
Josh Allen
BUF · 5 games, 138 attempts
41
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
26th of 34
27.6 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
6th of 34
9.1 yards per attempt · 65.9% completions · 0.286 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
31st of 32
LA has allowed 5.7 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 233 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record
Open
Opened -3.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 76 days before kickoff.
Move
7 reprices since, 6 points of movement in all. It closed -1.5 — the favourite is 2 points smaller than at the open. It ranged from -3.5 to -1.5 along the way, retracing 4 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Oct 1, 8 PM ET.
59% 5+ days out8% 5–2 days out33% Gameday
Biggest move
2 points at once — -3.5 to -1.5 on Mon, Oct 12, 9 PM ET.
Crossed 3
-3.5 to -1.5 on Mon, Oct 12, 9 PM ET — back through 3.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 21 days, then left it on Tue, Sep 29, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record
Open
Opened 53.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 76 days before kickoff.
Move
5 reprices since, 8 points of movement in all. It closed 51.5 — 2 points lower than the open. It ranged from 51.5 to 55.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Oct 12, 8 PM ET.
38% 5+ days out62% Gameday
Biggest move
4 points at once — 55.5 to 51.5 on Mon, Oct 12, 9 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
The total
Totals of 51.5 went over 31 of 60 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 84
Aaron Donald
Sacks
0.5
over
+235
FanDuel
under
—
Blake Corum
Carries
7.5market 48% over
we project7.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-102
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Blake Corum
Receiving Yards
2.5market 50% over2.1pp between books — shop it
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-115
DraftKings
Blake Corum
Receptions
0.5market 57% over
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+117
DraftKings
Blake Corum
Rushing Yards
37.5market 50% over
we project36.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-114
DraftKings
Braden Fiske
Sacks
0.5
over
+205
FanDuel
under
—
Bradley Chubb
Sacks
0.5
over
+205
FanDuel
under
—
Byron Young
Sacks
0.5
over
-130
FanDuel
under
—
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+5500
DraftKings
under
—
Colby Parkinson
Receiving Yards
16.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Colby Parkinson
Receptions
1.5market 59% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
-164
DraftKings
under
+134
FanDuel
Cole Bishop Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
Dalton Kincaid
Receiving Yards
55.5market 50% over
we project55.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Dalton Kincaid
Receptions
4.5market 45% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
+109
DraftKings
under
-132
FanDuel
Davante Adams
Receiving Yards
62.5market 50% over
we project88.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Davante Adams
Receptions
4.5market 46% over
over
+108
FanDuel
under
-137
DraftKings
Davis Allen
Receiving Yards
3.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Davis Allen
Receptions
0.5market 58% over2.9pp between books — shop it
over
-159
DraftKings
under
+134
FanDuel
Dawson Knox
Receiving Yards
11.5market 49% over
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Dawson Knox
Receptions
1.5market 46% over
over
+106
DraftKings
under
-137
DraftKings
Deone Walker
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Dewayne Carter
Sacks
0.5
over
+550
FanDuel
under
—
Greg Dortch
Receiving Yards
0.5
over
+106
DraftKings
under
—
Greg Dortch
Receptions
0.5market 44% over
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-148
FanDuel
Greg Rousseau
Sacks
0.5
over
+134
FanDuel
under
—
Harrison Mevis
Kicking Points
8.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-128
DraftKings
Jackson Hawes
Receiving Yards
0.5
over
+141
DraftKings
under
—
Jackson Hawes
Receptions
1.5
over
+670
DraftKings
under
—
James Cook
Carries
16.5market 51% over
we project19.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-118
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
James Cook
Receiving Yards
11.5market 49% over2.0pp between books — shop it
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
James Cook
Receptions
1.5market 54% over2.1pp between books — shop it
over
-122
FanDuel
under
+104
DraftKings
James Cook
Rushing Yards
76.5market 50% over
we project106.4/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Jaylen McCollough Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+14000
DraftKings
under
—
Jordan Whittington
Receiving Yards
5.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jordan Whittington
Receptions
0.5market 59% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
-167
DraftKings
under
+134
FanDuel
Josaiah Stewart
Sacks
0.5
over
+410
FanDuel
under
—
Josh Allen
Carries
7.5market 49% over
we project8.6/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-119
DraftKings
Josh Allen
Completions
21.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-119
DraftKings
Josh Allen
Interceptions
0.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-119
DraftKings
Josh Allen
Pass Attempts
33.5market 48% over
we project27.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-102
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Josh Allen
Passing TDs
1.5market 52% over
over
-120
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Josh Allen
Passing Yards
244.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Josh Allen
Rushing Yards
35.5market 50% over
we project47.8/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Josh Palmer
Receiving Yards
21.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Josh Palmer
Receptions
1.5market 56% over
over
-148
FanDuel
under
+112
FanDuel
Joshua Palmer
Receiving Yards
21.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Joshua Palmer
Receptions
1.5market 57% over
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+118
DraftKings
Kamren Curl Defensive
Interceptions
0.5market 10% over
over
+850
DraftKings
under
-1429
DraftKings
Kamren Kinchens Defensive
Interceptions
0.5market 12% over
over
+700
DraftKings
under
-1250
DraftKings
Keon Coleman
Receiving Yards
39.5market 50% over
we project44.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Keon Coleman
Receptions
2.5market 58% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
-161
DraftKings
under
+134
FanDuel
Khalil Shakir
Receiving Yards
46.5market 50% over
we project51.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Khalil Shakir
Receptions
4.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Kobie Turner
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Konata Mumpfield
Receiving Yards
6.5market 51% over
we project28.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Konata Mumpfield
Receptions
0.5market 59% over
over
-169
DraftKings
under
+132
DraftKings
Kyren Williams
Carries
14.5market 53% over
we project14.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Kyren Williams
Receiving Yards
22.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Kyren Williams
Receptions
2.5market 60% over
over
-172
DraftKings
under
+133
DraftKings
Kyren Williams
Rushing Yards
69.5market 50% over
we project68.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Landon Jackson
Sacks
0.5
over
+580
FanDuel
under
—
Matthew Stafford
Completions
23.5market 52% over
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-102
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Interceptions
0.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Pass Attempts
36.5market 51% over
we project43.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-108
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Passing TDs
2.5market 41% over2.7pp between books — shop it
over
+127
DraftKings
under
-148
FanDuel
Matthew Stafford
Passing Yards
277.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Rushing Yards
0.5market 52% over15.5pp between books — shop it
we project4.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+152
FanDuel
under
-103
DraftKings
Maxwell Hairston Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+11000
DraftKings
under
—
Michael Hoecht
Sacks
0.5
over
+450
FanDuel
under
—
Nate Landman
Sacks
0.5
over
+880
FanDuel
under
—
Puka Nacua
Receiving Yards
93.5market 50% over
we project112.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Puka Nacua
Receptions
7.5market 44% over
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-145
DraftKings
Puka Nacua
Rushing Yards
9.5market 39% over
over
+140
FanDuel
under
-188
FanDuel
Ray Davis
Rushing Yards
2.5market 50% over
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Skyler Bell
Receiving Yards
9.5market 51% over
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Skyler Bell
Receptions
1.5market 41% over
over
+134
FanDuel
under
-164
DraftKings
Terrel Bernard
Sacks
0.5
over
+920
FanDuel
under
—
Trent McDuffie Defensive
Interceptions
0.5market 10% over
over
+900
DraftKings
under
-1429
DraftKings
Ty Johnson
Receiving Yards
14.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Ty Johnson
Receptions
2.5market 40% over2.9pp between books — shop it
over
+152
FanDuel
under
-175
DraftKings
Ty Johnson
Rushing Yards
3.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Tyler Bass
Kicking Points
7.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-128
DraftKings
Tyler Higbee
Receiving Yards
25.5market 50% over
we project56.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Tyler Higbee
Receptions
2.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+102
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
64.4%
9.1
Yards / att
7.3
261.8
Air yards / gm
374.2
0.286
EPA / dropback
0.143
+4.4
CPOE
completion % over expected
+0.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 25.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5275.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs BUF
Matthew Stafford
LA · 5 games, 216 attempts
75
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
1st of 34
43.2 attempts per game · team runs 69 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 3.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
17th of 34
7.3 yards per attempt · 64.4% completions · 0.143 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
12th of 32
BUF has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 309 yards42 attempts × 7.3 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 26.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
300.5 yards in 4 of 5325.5 yards in 3 of 5350.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Khalil Shakir19.5% target share · 8.2 PPR last 4
DJ Moore15.0% target share · 9.1 PPR last 4
Keon Coleman14.3% target share · 12.1 PPR last 4
Davante Adams21.4% target share · 22.4 PPR last 4
Puka Nacua21.4% target share · 25.9 PPR last 3
Konata Mumpfield6.7% target share · 5.8 PPR last 4
James Cook67.4% of team carries · 19.8 PPR last 4
Ray Davis2.8% of team carries · 1.6 PPR last 4
Ty Johnson0.7% of team carries · 7.8 PPR last 3
Kyren Williams57.4% of team carries · 23.5 PPR last 4
Dalton Kincaid16.5% target share · 7.9 PPR last 4
Dawson Knox6.8% target share · 3.7 PPR last 4
Tyler Higbee11.9% target share · 11.6 PPR last 4
Terrance Ferguson5.7% target share · 6.4 PPR last 3
