Crossed 3 since opening0.5 points past 31 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
ATL-3.5DraftKings
BAL+4.5FanDuel
Over40.5DraftKings
Under41.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
BAL
31.5%
ATL
68.5%
Teams the market priced at 65–70% won 506 of 752 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
5.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Lamar Jackson · BALQB Index componentsMichael Penix Jr. · ATL
42 · D
Index
46 · C
24.0
Attempts / gm
25.7
6.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.9%
70.8%
QB Index · vs ATL
Lamar Jackson
BAL · 4 games, 96 attempts
42
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
31st of 34
24.0 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 46% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
1st of 34
10.1 yards per attempt · 70.8% completions · 0.363 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
27th of 32
ATL has allowed 6.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 257 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record
Open
Opened +4.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 75 days before kickoff.
Move
7 reprices since, 12 points of movement in all. It closed -3.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -3.5 to +6 along the way, retracing 4 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Oct 6, 2 PM ET.
92% 5+ days out4% Final two days4% Gameday
Biggest move
5.5 points at once — +2.5 to -3 on Tue, Oct 6, 2 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+3.5 to +2.5 on Mon, Oct 5, 8 PM ET — back through 3.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 31 hours, then left it on Sun, Oct 11, 7 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record
Open
Opened 48.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 75 days before kickoff.
Move
7 reprices since, 14 points of movement in all. It closed 40.5 — 8 points lower than the open. It ranged from 40.5 to 49.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Oct 6, 2 AM ET.
64% 5+ days out36% Gameday
Biggest move
4 points at once — 44.5 to 40.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 9 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 3.5 covered 325 of 656 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 414 of 656.
The total
Totals of 40.5 went over 112 of 207 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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Player props · 71
Austin Hooper
Receiving Yards
6.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Austin Hooper
Receptions
0.5market 50% over14.6pp between books — shop it
over
-116
DraftKings
under
+158
FanDuel
Bijan Robinson
Carries
17.5market 53% over
we project20.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Bijan Robinson
Receiving Yards
26.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Bijan Robinson
Receptions
3.5market 54% over
over
-133
DraftKings
under
+104
DraftKings
Bijan Robinson
Rushing Yards
86.5market 50% over
we project116.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Brandon Dorlus
Sacks
0.5
over
+265
FanDuel
under
—
Brian Robinson Jr.
Carries
6.5market 49% over
we project10.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Brian Robinson Jr.
Rushing Yards
24.5market 50% over
we project42.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
C.J. Henderson Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+650
DraftKings
under
—
Calais Campbell
Sacks
0.5
over
+520
FanDuel
under
—
Cameron Thomas
Sacks
0.5
over
+148
FanDuel
under
—
Derrick Henry
Carries
23.5market 53% over
we project22.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Derrick Henry
Receiving Yards
5.5market 52% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-104
DraftKings
Derrick Henry
Receptions
1.5market 38% over2.5pp between books — shop it
over
+168
FanDuel
under
-196
DraftKings
Derrick Henry
Rushing Yards
80.5market 50% over
we project95.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Devontez Walker
Receiving Yards
8.5market 50% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-106
FanDuel
Devontez Walker
Receptions
0.5market 64% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
-208
DraftKings
under
+168
FanDuel
Drake London
Receiving Yards
82.5market 50% over
we project97.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Drake London
Receptions
6.5market 44% over3.5pp between books — shop it
over
+130
FanDuel
under
-145
DraftKings
Gervon Dexter Sr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+172
FanDuel
under
—
Jahan Dotson
Receiving Yards
13.5market 50% over
we project29.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Jahan Dotson
Receptions
1.5market 39% over20.2pp between books — shop it
over
+140
DraftKings
under
+122
FanDuel
Jaylinn Hawkins Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+700
DraftKings
under
—
Jessie Bates Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+5000
DraftKings
under
—
Justice Hill
Receiving Yards
8.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Justice Hill
Receptions
1.5market 41% over7.5pp between books — shop it
over
+125
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
Justice Hill
Rushing Yards
36.5market 49% over
we project26.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-118
FanDuel
Kyle Hamilton
Sacks
0.5
over
+880
FanDuel
under
—
Kyle Hamilton Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
Kyle Pitts
Receiving Yards
17.5market 49% over
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts
Receptions
2.5market 46% over
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-136
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Receiving Yards
14.5market 50% over
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Receptions
1.5market 51% over
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Malaki Starks Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+11000
DraftKings
under
—
Mark Andrews
Receiving Yards
30.5market 50% over
we project35.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Mark Andrews
Receptions
3.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+104
FanDuel
Matthew Hibner
Receiving Yards
8.5market 49% over
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-120
FanDuel
Matthew Hibner
Receptions
1.5market 33% over
over
+184
DraftKings
under
-238
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Completions
13.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Interceptions
0.5market 40% over
over
+135
DraftKings
under
-185
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Pass Attempts
26.5market 49% over
we project25.7/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Passing TDs
1.5market 45% over
over
+109
DraftKings
under
-140
FanDuel
Michael Penix Jr.
Passing Yards
219.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Michael Penix Jr.
Rushing Yards
5.5market 43% over4.8pp between books — shop it
we project1.3/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+140
FanDuel
under
-156
DraftKings
Mike Green
Sacks
0.5
over
+490
FanDuel
under
—
Mike Hughes Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+13000
DraftKings
under
—
Nate Wiggins Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+750
DraftKings
under
—
Nick Folk
Kicking Points
7.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Nnamdi Madubuike
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Olamide Zaccheaus
Receiving Yards
7.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Olamide Zaccheaus
Receptions
0.5market 53% over12.3pp between books — shop it
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+164
FanDuel
Rashod Bateman
Receiving Yards
12.5market 51% over2.2pp between books — shop it
we project46.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Rashod Bateman
Receptions
1.5market 44% over12.1pp between books — shop it
over
+110
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Roquan Smith
Sacks
0.5
over
+800
FanDuel
under
—
Roquan Smith Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1300
DraftKings
under
—
Samson Ebukam
Sacks
0.5
over
+230
FanDuel
under
—
Tavius Robinson
Sacks
0.5
over
+320
FanDuel
under
—
Travis Jones
Sacks
0.5
over
+640
FanDuel
under
—
Tyler Huntley
Carries
5.5market 42% over
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-161
DraftKings
Tyler Huntley
Completions
17.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Tyler Huntley
Interceptions
0.5market 36% over
over
+155
DraftKings
under
-217
DraftKings
Tyler Huntley
Pass Attempts
27.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Tyler Huntley
Passing TDs
0.5market 63% over
over
-213
DraftKings
under
+155
DraftKings
Tyler Huntley
Passing Yards
173.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Tyler Huntley
Rushing Yards
29.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Tyler Loop
Kicking Points
6.5market 47% over
over
+101
DraftKings
under
-130
DraftKings
Xavier Watts Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+475
DraftKings
under
—
Za'Darius Smith
Sacks
0.5
over
+198
FanDuel
under
—
Zay Flowers
Receiving Yards
67.5market 50% over
we project101.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Zay Flowers
Receptions
5.5market 48% over
over
+100
FanDuel
under
-122
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
67.5%
10.1
Yards / att
9.3
243.0
Air yards / gm
163.3
0.363
EPA / dropback
0.343
+8.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
+1.8
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 18.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 4225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs BAL
Michael Penix Jr.
ATL · 3 games, 77 attempts
46
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
28th of 34
25.7 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 45% pass · sacked on 4.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
7th of 34
9.3 yards per attempt · 67.5% completions · 0.343 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
19th of 32
BAL has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 238 yards25 attempts × 9.3 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 3250.5 yards in 1 of 3275.5 yards in 0 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Zay Flowers23.1% target share · 20.4 PPR last 4
Rashod Bateman15.7% target share · 11.3 PPR last 4
Devontez Walker5.2% target share · 4.4 PPR last 4
Drake London28.1% target share · 17.7 PPR last 4
Jahan Dotson13.3% target share · 6.5 PPR last 4
Zachariah Branch6.3% target share · 2.9 PPR last 4
Derrick Henry72.6% of team carries · 19.1 PPR last 4
Justice Hill11.5% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 4
Bijan Robinson65.8% of team carries · 22.5 PPR last 4
Brian Robinson32.9% of team carries · 11.8 PPR last 4
Mark Andrews23.1% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
Matthew Hibner3.7% target share · 6 PPR last 3
Kyle Pitts11.7% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
Austin Hooper5.5% target share · 5 PPR last 3