Final · San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29
Opened
-3.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
+1.5
+5 since open
Total
61.5
Prices archived
159
24 spread · 22 total
Crossed 3 since opening
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
SF
56.3%
SEA
43.7%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
6.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Brock Purdy · SFQB Index componentsSam Darnold · SEA
43 · D
Index
27 · F
28.4
Attempts / gm
29.8
2.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
8.6%
69.0%
Completion
QB Index · vs SEA
Brock Purdy
SF · 5 games, 142 attempts
43
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
25th of 34
28.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 2.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
4th of 34
8.4 yards per attempt · 69.0% completions · 0.397 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
32nd of 32
SEA has allowed 5.3 yards per attempt across 6 games
≈ 234 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 9 prices on record
Open
Opened -3.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
8 reprices since, 14 points of movement in all. It closed +1.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -3.5 to +4.5 along the way, retracing 9 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 6 PM ET.
11% 5+ days out7% 5–2 days out82% Gameday
Biggest move
8 points at once — -3.5 to +4.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 6 PM ET.
Crossed 3
-3.5 to +4.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 6 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 3
+4.5 to +1.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 7 PM ET — back through 3.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 10 prices on record
Open
Opened 48.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
9 reprices since, 21 points of movement in all. It closed 61.5 — 13 points higher than the open. It ranged from 45.5 to 61.5 along the way, retracing 8 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 6 PM ET.
14% 5+ days out10% 5–2 days out76% Gameday
Biggest move
6 points at once — 50.5 to 56.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 6 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
No history held for a total of 61.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
10
390 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 67
A.J. Barner
Receiving Yards
16.5market 47% over
we project24.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
A.J. Barner
Receptions
2.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
AJ Barner
Receiving Yards
16.5market 47% over
we project24.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-128
FanDuel
AJ Barner
Receptions
2.5market 49% over
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-122
FanDuel
Brock Purdy
Carries
4.5market 45% over
we project5.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Completions
20.5market 53% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Interceptions
1.5market 18% over
over
+425
DraftKings
under
-667
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Pass Attempts
32.5market 53% over
we project28.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Passing TDs
1.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-118
FanDuel
Brock Purdy
Passing Yards
222.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Brock Purdy
Rushing Yards
8.5market 47% over
we project25.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-130
FanDuel
Byron Murphy II
Sacks
0.5
over
+450
FanDuel
under
—
Christian McCaffrey
Carries
11.5market 53% over
we project12.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey
Receiving Yards
27.5market 49% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey
Receptions
4.5market 55% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
-125
FanDuel
under
+108
DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey
Rushing Yards
52.5market 50% over
we project57.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Cooper Kupp
Receiving Yards
6.5market 44% over
we project25.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-146
FanDuel
Cooper Kupp
Receptions
2.5market 44% over
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-147
DraftKings
Deebo Samuel
Receiving Yards
31.5market 50% over
we project41.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Deebo Samuel
Receptions
3.5market 42% over11.1pp between books — shop it
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Deebo Samuel
Rushing Yards
8.5market 50% over
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
DeMarcus Lawrence
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Deommodore Lenoir Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+10000
DraftKings
under
—
Derick Hall
Sacks
0.5
over
+550
FanDuel
under
—
Devon Witherspoon Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
—
Eddy Pineiro
Kicking Points
6.5market 51% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Emanuel Wilson
Carries
21.5market 49% over
we project14.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Emanuel Wilson
Receiving Yards
11.5market 40% over6.2pp between books — shop it
over
+190
DraftKings
under
-108
DraftKings
Emanuel Wilson
Receptions
1.5market 57% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Emanuel Wilson
Rushing Yards
65.5market 50% over
we project50.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Ernest Jones Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+14000
DraftKings
under
—
Fred Warner
Sacks
0.5
over
+800
FanDuel
under
—
George Holani
Receiving Yards
8.5market 51% over
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-106
DraftKings
George Holani
Receptions
1.5market 55% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
-139
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
George Holani
Rushing Yards
7.5market 47% over4.1pp between books — shop it
we project15.4/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+118
FanDuel
under
-135
DraftKings
George Kittle
Receiving Yards
32.5market 50% over
we project53.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
George Kittle
Receptions
4.5market 51% over3.1pp between books — shop it
over
-106
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Jack Jones Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
—
Jason Myers
Kicking Points
7.5market 53% over
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Receiving Yards
97.5market 50% over1.5pp between books — shop it
we project116.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Receptions
6.5market 44% over8.9pp between books — shop it
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Ji'Ayir Brown Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+750
DraftKings
under
—
Josh Jobe Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
Julian Love Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+6000
DraftKings
under
—
Kaelon Black
Rushing Yards
14.5market 18% over41.3pp between books — shop it
we project27.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+750
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Keion White
Sacks
0.5
over
+320
FanDuel
under
—
Leonard Williams
Sacks
0.5
over
+300
FanDuel
under
—
Malik Mustapha Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1300
DraftKings
under
—
Mike Evans
Receiving Yards
54.5market 50% over
we project65.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Mike Evans
Receptions
3.5market 57% over4.0pp between books — shop it
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+134
FanDuel
Mykel Williams
Sacks
0.5
over
+400
FanDuel
under
—
Nehemiah Pritchett Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1200
DraftKings
under
—
Nick Emmanwori
Sacks
0.5
over
+920
FanDuel
under
—
Nick Emmanwori Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
—
Osa Odighizuwa
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Rashid Shaheed
Receiving Yards
1.5market 39% over
we project19.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+142
FanDuel
under
-192
DraftKings
Rashid Shaheed
Receptions
1.5market 40% over22.7pp between books — shop it
over
+135
DraftKings
under
+140
FanDuel
Renardo Green Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
Romello Height
Sacks
0.5
over
+580
FanDuel
under
—
Sam Darnold
Completions
17.5market 53% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Interceptions
2.5
over
+295
DraftKings
under
—
Sam Darnold
Pass Attempts
28.5market 51% over
we project24.5/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Passing TDs
1.5market 28% over24.7pp between books — shop it
over
+235
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Sam Darnold
Passing Yards
215.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Sam Darnold
Rushing Yards
5.5market 49% over1.6pp between books — shop it
we project4.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-104
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Tory Horton
Receiving Yards
0.5market 30% over21.9pp between books — shop it
over
+310
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Tory Horton
Receptions
1.5market 37% over
over
+154
DraftKings
under
-200
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
60.4%
8.4
Yards / att
6.9
220.6
Air yards / gm
215.4
0.397
EPA / dropback
-0.135
+6.0
CPOE
completion % over expected
-4.6
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 31.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs SF
Sam Darnold
SEA · 5 games, 149 attempts
27
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
20th of 34
29.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 55% pass · sacked on 8.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
6.9 yards per attempt · 60.4% completions · -0.135 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
30th of 32
SF has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 209 yards30 attempts × 6.9 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 30.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 5 days, then left it on Mon, Oct 5, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Mike Evans25.4% target share · 14.9 PPR last 4
Deebo Samuel Sr.14.5% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Demarcus Robinson4.3% target share · 9.7 PPR last 2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba34.9% target share · 24 PPR last 4
Rashid Shaheed14.8% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Cooper Kupp13.2% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Christian McCaffrey47.7% of team carries · 19.4 PPR last 4
Kaelon Black28.9% of team carries · 1.8 PPR last 4
Emanuel Wilson54.0% of team carries · 11.7 PPR last 4
George Holani19.3% of team carries · 6.7 PPR last 4
George Kittle20.3% target share · 17.2 PPR last 4
AJ Barner12.7% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4