Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
CHI
1.0%
GB
99.0%
We hold too few games at this price to say what it has been worth historically, so we don't.
0.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 100.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Tyson Bagent · CHIQB Index componentsJordan Love · GB
19 · F
Index
73 · A
21.3
Attempts / gm
37.0
5.9%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
5.1%
65.6%
Completion
QB Index · vs GB
Tyson Bagent
CHI · 3 games, 64 attempts
19
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
32nd of 34
21.3 attempts per game · team runs 71 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 5.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 34
6.4 yards per attempt · 65.6% completions · -0.077 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
25th of 32
GB has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 207 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 12 prices on record
Open
Opened -3 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
11 reprices since, 38.5 points of movement in all. It closed -23.5 — the favourite is 20.5 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -23.5 to +3 along the way, retracing 18 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET.
16% 5+ days out4% 5–2 days out80% Gameday
Biggest move
12 points at once — -11.5 to -23.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 4 PM ET.
Crossed 3
-1.5 to -7.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 7
-1.5 to -7.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 10 prices on record
Open
Opened 49.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
9 reprices since, 25 points of movement in all. It closed 38.5 — 11 points lower than the open. It ranged from 38.5 to 49.5 along the way, retracing 14 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET.
24% 5+ days out4% Final two days72% Gameday
Biggest move
5 points at once — 48.5 to 43.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 3 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
No history held for a spread of 23.5 — we do not round it to a nearby number, because 23.5 and the rung beside it are different questions.
The total
Totals of 38.5 went over 67 of 140 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
10
390 of 6,967
4
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 68
Austin Booker
Sacks
0.5
over
+210
FanDuel
under
—
Bo Melton
Receiving Yards
12.5
over
+280
DraftKings
under
—
Bo Melton
Receptions
2.5
over
+260
DraftKings
under
—
Brandon Cisse Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+750
DraftKings
under
—
Brenton Cox
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Cairo Santos
Kicking Points
7.5market 46% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-133
DraftKings
Christian Watson
Receiving Yards
141.5market 45% over4.5pp between books — shop it
we project94.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Christian Watson
Receptions
4.5market 45% over1.6pp between books — shop it
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Cole Kmet
Receiving Yards
8.5market 47% over
over
+100
FanDuel
under
-132
DraftKings
Cole Kmet
Receptions
1.5market 47% over7.3pp between books — shop it
over
+134
FanDuel
under
-135
DraftKings
Colston Loveland
Receiving Yards
17.5market 50% over
we project22.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Colston Loveland
Receptions
3.5market 50% over6.0pp between books — shop it
over
-116
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
D'Andre Swift
Carries
12.5market 57% over
we project15.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+115
DraftKings
D'Andre Swift
Receiving Yards
32.5market 50% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-106
FanDuel
D'Andre Swift
Receptions
2.5market 51% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
D'Andre Swift
Rushing Yards
57.5market 50% over
we project70.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Dayo Odeyingbo
Sacks
0.5
over
+265
FanDuel
under
—
Devin Bush Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
—
Devonte Wyatt
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Dillon Thieneman Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+950
DraftKings
under
—
Evan Williams Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+700
DraftKings
under
—
Grady Jarrett
Sacks
0.5
over
+490
FanDuel
under
—
Javon Hargrave
Sacks
0.5
over
+210
FanDuel
under
—
Jaylon Johnson Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+700
DraftKings
under
—
Jonnu Smith
Receiving Yards
0.5market 41% over16.8pp between books — shop it
over
+270
DraftKings
under
-172
FanDuel
Jonnu Smith
Receptions
1.5market 8% over31.1pp between books — shop it
over
+1500
DraftKings
under
-230
FanDuel
Jordan Love
Completions
22.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Interceptions
0.5market 14% over
over
+600
DraftKings
under
-1000
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Pass Attempts
30.5market 49% over
we project37.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Passing TDs
1.5market 49% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
+100
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Passing Yards
234.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Rushing Yards
5.5market 59% over2.6pp between books — shop it
we project-0.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-154
FanDuel
under
+125
DraftKings
Kaleb Johnson
Carries
8.5market 55% over
we project5.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-147
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Kaleb Johnson
Rushing Yards
31.5market 50% over
we project21.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Kalif Raymond
Receiving Yards
17.5market 50% over
we project45.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Kalif Raymond
Receptions
3.5market 40% over
over
+142
FanDuel
under
-175
DraftKings
Keisean Nixon Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+700
DraftKings
under
—
Kyle Monangai
Carries
11.5market 54% over
we project15.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+106
DraftKings
Kyle Monangai
Rushing Yards
51.5market 50% over
we project81.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Lukas Van Ness
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Luther Burden III
Receiving Yards
47.5market 50% over
we project53.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Luther Burden III
Receptions
4.5market 39% over6.9pp between books — shop it
over
+140
DraftKings
under
-140
FanDuel
Malik Muhammad Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+650
DraftKings
under
—
MarShawn Lloyd
Carries
12.5market 57% over
we project8.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+115
DraftKings
MarShawn Lloyd
Receiving Yards
13.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
MarShawn Lloyd
Receptions
2.5market 16% over37.9pp between books — shop it
over
+800
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
MarShawn Lloyd
Rushing Yards
28.5market 50% over
we project22.4/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Matthew Golden
Receiving Yards
56.5market 50% over
we project79.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Matthew Golden
Receptions
4.5market 49% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Montez Sweat
Sacks
0.5
over
+124
FanDuel
under
—
Rome Odunze
Receiving Yards
39.5market 50% over
we project54.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Rome Odunze
Receptions
2.5market 47% over12.4pp between books — shop it
over
+100
DraftKings
under
+124
FanDuel
Roschon Johnson
Rushing Yards
16.5market 51% over
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Skyy Moore
Receiving Yards
12.5market 50% over
we project7.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Skyy Moore
Receptions
1.5market 43% over3.0pp between books — shop it
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
T.J. Edwards Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
—
Trey Smack
Kicking Points
6.5market 50% over
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Tucker Kraft
Receiving Yards
64.5market 48% over13.9pp between books — shop it
we project42.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+168
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Tucker Kraft
Receptions
4.5market 49% over
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Tyrique Stevenson Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Tyson Bagent
Completions
20.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Tyson Bagent
Interceptions
1.5market 32% over
over
+195
DraftKings
under
-270
DraftKings
Tyson Bagent
Pass Attempts
30.5market 47% over
we project21.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Tyson Bagent
Passing TDs
1.5market 44% over2.9pp between books — shop it
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-128
FanDuel
Tyson Bagent
Passing Yards
173.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Tyson Bagent
Rushing Yards
20.5market 51% over
we project6.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Xavier McKinney Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+450
DraftKings
under
—
Zaire Franklin Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1500
DraftKings
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
60.5%
6.4
Yards / att
7.6
144.3
Air yards / gm
322.2
-0.077
EPA / dropback
0.110
+1.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.1
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 7.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
100.5 yards in 1 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs CHI
Jordan Love
GB · 5 games, 185 attempts
73
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
9th of 34
37.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 65% pass · sacked on 5.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
17th of 34
7.6 yards per attempt · 60.5% completions · 0.110 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
2nd of 32
CHI has allowed 8.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 267 yards35 attempts × 7.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 31.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 3 of 5325.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Crossed 7
-7.5 to -4.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET — back through 7.
5 key-number crossings in all.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 63 days, then left it on Tue, Sep 29, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Luther Burden III21.7% target share · 11.6 PPR last 4
Rome Odunze18.0% target share · 8.8 PPR last 4
Kalif Raymond16.8% target share · 9 PPR last 4
Matthew Golden24.7% target share · 15.7 PPR last 4
Christian Watson22.0% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Skyy Moore7.7% target share · 2.6 PPR last 4
D'Andre Swift45.9% of team carries · 12.1 PPR last 4
Kyle Monangai35.3% of team carries · 14.8 PPR last 4
Roschon Johnson5.3% of team carries · 4.1 PPR last 3
MarShawn Lloyd44.4% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Colston Loveland14.3% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Cole Kmet5.6% target share · 1.3 PPR last 4
Sam Roush3.1% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4
Tucker Kraft15.9% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4
