Detroit LionsatArizona Cardinals

Final · Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21

Opened

+5.5

First seen Sep 29

Closed

+30.5

+25 since open

Total

61.5

Prices archived

153

21 spread · 18 total

Crossed 7 & 10 since opening

Where the best number is

ARI+30.5DraftKings

DET-30.5DraftKings

Over56.5FanDuel

Under61.5DraftKings

Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

DET

99.0%

ARI

1.0%

We hold too few games at this price to say what it has been worth historically, so we don't.

0.9%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 100.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.

Head to head

Jared Goff · DETQB Index componentsJacoby Brissett · ARI

84 · S

Index

64 · B+

38.2

Attempts / gm

39.8

5.4%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

5.7%

67.0%

QB Index · vs ARI

Jared Goff

DET · 5 games, 191 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

6th of 34

38.2 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 60% pass · sacked on 5.4% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

10th of 34

7.8 yards per attempt · 67.0% completions · 0.323 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

1st of 32

ARI has allowed 9.1 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 281 yards

The life of this number

Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record

Open

Opened +5.5 on Tue, Sep 29, 12 days before kickoff.

Move

5 reprices since, 31 points of movement in all. It closed +30.5 — the favourite is 25 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from +3.5 to +30.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 6 PM ET.

3% 5+ days out3% 5–2 days out94% Gameday

Biggest move

14 points at once — +3.5 to +17.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 6 PM ET.

Crossed 7

+3.5 to +17.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 6 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.

Crossed 10

+3.5 to +17.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 6 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 10 prices on record

Open

Opened 48.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.

Move

9 reprices since, 23 points of movement in all. It closed 61.5 — 13 points higher than the open. It ranged from 48.5 to 61.5 along the way, retracing 10 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 5 PM ET.

35% 5+ days out65% Gameday

Biggest move

5 points at once — 51.5 to 56.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 6 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

No history held for a spread of 30.5 — we do not round it to a nearby number, because 30.5 and the rung beside it are different questions.

No history held for a total of 61.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

390 of 6,967

341 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

Player props · 67

Aidan Hutchinson

Sacks

0.5

over

-172

FanDuel

under

—

Alim McNeill

Sacks

0.5

over

+140

FanDuel

under

—

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Receiving Yards

81.5market 50% over

we project74.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Receptions

6.5market 21% over49.0pp between books — shop it

over

+700

DraftKings

under

+120

FanDuel

Baron Browning

Sacks

0.5

over

+410

FanDuel

under

—

Budda Baker Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1000

DraftKings

under

—

Chad Ryland

Kicking Points

6.5market 53% over

over

-128

DraftKings

under

+101

DraftKings

Christian Izien Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1500

DraftKings

under

—

Chuck Clark Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1300

DraftKings

under

—

D.J. Reed Jr. Defensive

Interceptions

1.5

over

+17000

DraftKings

under

—

D.J. Wonnum

Sacks

0.5

over

+144

FanDuel

under

—

Dante Stills

Sacks

0.5

over

+265

FanDuel

under

—

Darius Robinson

Sacks

0.5

over

+450

FanDuel

under

—

Denzel Burke Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+650

DraftKings

under

—

Derrick Barnes

Sacks

0.5

over

+550

FanDuel

under

—

Elijah Higgins

Receiving Yards

10.5market 49% over

over

-106

DraftKings

under

-119

DraftKings

Elijah Higgins

Receptions

1.5market 51% over11.8pp between books — shop it

over

+134

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Isaac TeSlaa

Receiving Yards

3.5market 50% over

we project37.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-112

FanDuel

Isaac TeSlaa

Receptions

2.5market 40% over1.8pp between books — shop it

over

+144

FanDuel

under

-172

DraftKings

Jack Campbell

Sacks

0.5

over

+750

FanDuel

under

—

Jacoby Brissett

Completions

24.5market 47% over

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-132

DraftKings

Jacoby Brissett

Interceptions

1.5market 47% over

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-132

DraftKings

Jacoby Brissett

Pass Attempts

44.5market 51% over

we project39.8/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-120

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Jacoby Brissett

Passing TDs

1.5market 59% over

over

-160

FanDuel

under

+129

DraftKings

Jacoby Brissett

Passing Yards

264.5market 50% over

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Jacoby Brissett

Rushing Yards

3.5market 49% over2.9pp between books — shop it

we project12.4/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-106

FanDuel

Jahmyr Gibbs

Carries

21.5market 51% over

we project21.0/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-120

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Jahmyr Gibbs

Receiving Yards

56.5market 52% over50.2pp between books — shop it

over

+2000

DraftKings

under

-106

FanDuel

Jahmyr Gibbs

Receptions

4.5market 53% over1.7pp between books — shop it

over

-127

DraftKings

under

+102

FanDuel

Jahmyr Gibbs

Rushing Yards

90.5market 50% over

we project100.8/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Jake Bates

Kicking Points

7.5market 53% over

over

-128

DraftKings

under

+100

DraftKings

Jameson Williams

Receiving Yards

37.5market 50% over

we project55.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Jameson Williams

Receptions

3.5market 56% over1.9pp between books — shop it

over

-138

FanDuel

under

+116

DraftKings

Jared Goff

Completions

20.5market 56% over

over

-152

DraftKings

under

+110

DraftKings

Jared Goff

Interceptions

0.5market 18% over

over

+425

DraftKings

under

-667

DraftKings

Jared Goff

Pass Attempts

32.5market 47% over

we project38.2/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

+100

DraftKings

under

-135

DraftKings

Jared Goff

Passing TDs

2.5market 63% over26.5pp between books — shop it

over

+144

FanDuel

under

+150

DraftKings

Jared Goff

Passing Yards

280.5market 50% over

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Jared Goff

Rushing Yards

0.5market 43% over23.6pp between books — shop it

we project3.2/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

+115

DraftKings

under

+172

FanDuel

Jeremiyah Love

Carries

13.5market 47% over

we project13.4/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

+100

DraftKings

under

-135

DraftKings

Jeremiyah Love

Receiving Yards

7.5market 49% over

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Jeremiyah Love

Receptions

2.5market 46% over3.9pp between books — shop it

over

+124

FanDuel

under

-135

DraftKings

Jeremiyah Love

Rushing Yards

22.5market 47% over9.2pp between books — shop it

we project49.0/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

+145

DraftKings

under

-132

FanDuel

Josh Sweat

Sacks

0.5

over

+118

FanDuel

under

—

Kendrick Bourne

Receiving Yards

62.5market 39% over5.2pp between books — shop it

we project44.5/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+142

FanDuel

under

-192

FanDuel

Kendrick Bourne

Receptions

3.5market 48% over

over

-102

FanDuel

under

-123

DraftKings

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receiving Yards

34.5market 50% over

we project21.3/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receptions

2.5market 54% over1.9pp between books — shop it

over

-133

DraftKings

under

+108

FanDuel

Max Melton Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1700

DraftKings

under

—

Michael Wilson

Receiving Yards

79.5market 11% over46.4pp between books — shop it

we project57.6/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+1400

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Michael Wilson

Receptions

5.5market 36% over32.7pp between books — shop it

over

+270

DraftKings

under

+112

FanDuel

Roger McCreary Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1300

DraftKings

under

—

Roy Lopez

Sacks

0.5

over

+410

FanDuel

under

—

Sam LaPorta

Receiving Yards

76.5market 49% over

we project63.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Sam LaPorta

Receptions

4.5market 53% over3.7pp between books — shop it

over

-132

DraftKings

under

+116

FanDuel

Sione Vaki

Receiving Yards

0.5market 50% over

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Sione Vaki

Rushing Yards

7.5market 51% over1.5pp between books — shop it

we project10.2/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-106

DraftKings

Skyler Gill-Howard

Sacks

0.5

over

+280

FanDuel

under

—

Trey McBride

Receiving Yards

84.5market 50% over

we project61.6/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Trey McBride

Receptions

7.5market 52% over7.4pp between books — shop it

over

-140

FanDuel

under

+106

FanDuel

Tyleik Williams

Sacks

0.5

over

+410

FanDuel

under

—

Tyler Allgeier

Carries

3.5market 55% over

we project7.0/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-147

DraftKings

under

+105

DraftKings

Tyler Allgeier

Receiving Yards

39.5market 50% over50.3pp between books — shop it

over

+3500

DraftKings

under

-115

FanDuel

Tyler Allgeier

Receptions

2.5market 36% over25.7pp between books — shop it

over

+700

DraftKings

under

-220

FanDuel

Tyler Allgeier

Rushing Yards

26.5market 50% over

we project23.8/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Walter Nolen III

Sacks

0.5

over

+360

FanDuel

under

—

Wydett Williams Jr. Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1200

DraftKings

under

—

Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.