Final · Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17
Opened
+1.5
First seen Sep 29
Closed
+5.5
+4 since open
Total
39.5
Prices archived
182
24 spread · 16 total
Crossed 3 since opening2 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
LAC+5.5FanDuel
DEN-3.5DraftKings
Over39.5DraftKings
Under41.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
DEN
91.4%
LAC
8.6%
Teams the market priced at 90–95% won 44 of 46 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 4.2 points.
5.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Bo Nix · DENQB Index componentsJustin Herbert · LAC
42 · D
Index
25 · F
31.5
Attempts / gm
28.6
4.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
10.6%
60.3%
Completion
QB Index · vs LAC
Bo Nix
DEN · 6 games, 189 attempts
42
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
16th of 34
31.5 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 4.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
29th of 34
5.6 yards per attempt · 60.3% completions · -0.076 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
14th of 32
LAC has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 168 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 5 prices on record
Open
Opened +1.5 on Tue, Sep 29, 12 days before kickoff.
Move
4 reprices since, 12 points of movement in all. It closed +5.5 — the favourite is 4 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from +1.5 to +6.5 along the way, retracing 8 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 6 PM ET.
17% 5+ days out83% Gameday
Biggest move
4 points at once — +6.5 to +2.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 6 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+1.5 to +3.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 8 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 3
+6.5 to +2.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 6 PM ET — back through 3.
Crossed 3
+2.5 to +5.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 7 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 9 prices on record
Open
Opened 44.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
8 reprices since, 25 points of movement in all. It closed 39.5 — 5 points lower than the open. It ranged from 30.5 to 44.5 along the way, retracing 20 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 6 PM ET.
8% 5+ days out4% 5–2 days out88% Gameday
Biggest move
9 points at once — 30.5 to 39.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 7 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 5.5 covered 125 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 178 of 275.
The total
Totals of 39.5 went over 82 of 171 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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Player props · 68
Akheem Mesidor
Sacks
0.5
over
+450
FanDuel
under
—
Bo Nix
Carries
2.5market 47% over
we project3.6/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Completions
17.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Interceptions
0.5market 27% over
over
+245
DraftKings
under
-345
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Pass Attempts
27.5market 51% over
we project32.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Passing TDs
1.5market 43% over3.5pp between books — shop it
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Bo Nix
Passing Yards
152.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Bo Nix
Rushing Yards
2.5market 49% over3.5pp between books — shop it
we project7.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-104
FanDuel
Brandon Jones Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Cam Hart Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
—
Cameron Dicker
Kicking Points
6.5market 50% over
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Courtland Sutton
Receiving Yards
16.5market 49% over
we project20.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Courtland Sutton
Receptions
3.5market 43% over1.6pp between books — shop it
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-144
FanDuel
Daiyan Henley
Sacks
0.5
over
+750
FanDuel
under
—
Daiyan Henley Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1200
DraftKings
under
—
Elijah Molden Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
Evan Engram
Receiving Yards
41.5market 50% over
we project24.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Evan Engram
Receptions
2.5market 35% over8.4pp between books — shop it
over
+170
DraftKings
under
-160
FanDuel
Genesis Smith Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+13000
DraftKings
under
—
J.K. Dobbins
Carries
14.5market 58% over
we project12.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-161
DraftKings
under
+120
DraftKings
J.K. Dobbins
Rushing Yards
49.5market 50% over
we project45.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Ja'Quan McMillian Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+750
DraftKings
under
—
Jaylen Waddle
Receiving Yards
53.5market 50% over1.5pp between books — shop it
we project40.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Jaylen Waddle
Receptions
4.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+104
FanDuel
Jonah Elliss
Sacks
0.5
over
+320
FanDuel
under
—
Justin Herbert
Carries
4.5market 49% over
we project4.8/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-161
DraftKings
under
-172
DraftKings
Justin Herbert
Completions
17.5market 46% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Justin Herbert
Interceptions
0.5market 29% over
over
+225
DraftKings
under
-312
DraftKings
Justin Herbert
Pass Attempts
26.5market 51% over
we project28.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Justin Herbert
Passing TDs
1.5market 31% over3.2pp between books — shop it
over
+205
DraftKings
under
-240
FanDuel
Justin Herbert
Passing Yards
199.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Justin Herbert
Rushing Yards
23.5market 50% over
we project28.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Keaton Mitchell
Carries
6.5market 52% over
we project6.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Keaton Mitchell
Receiving Yards
11.5market 51% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Keaton Mitchell
Rushing Yards
20.5market 51% over
we project27.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Khalil Mack
Sacks
0.5
over
+235
FanDuel
under
—
Ladd McConkey
Receiving Yards
41.5market 50% over
we project45.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Ladd McConkey
Receptions
3.5market 54% over2.5pp between books — shop it
over
-122
FanDuel
under
+106
DraftKings
Malcolm Roach
Sacks
0.5
over
+188
FanDuel
under
—
Marvin Mims
Receiving Yards
6.5market 33% over
over
+185
DraftKings
under
-250
DraftKings
Marvin Mims
Receptions
2.5market 38% over
over
+150
DraftKings
under
-200
DraftKings
Marvin Mims Jr.
Receiving Yards
6.5market 35% over
over
+164
FanDuel
under
-225
FanDuel
Marvin Mims Jr.
Receptions
1.5market 45% over
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-140
FanDuel
Nik Bonitto
Sacks
0.5
over
-138
FanDuel
under
—
Omarion Hampton
Carries
16.5market 43% over
we project14.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-161
DraftKings
Omarion Hampton
Receiving Yards
6.5market 33% over
over
+185
DraftKings
under
-256
DraftKings
Omarion Hampton
Receptions
1.5market 33% over4.6pp between books — shop it
over
+180
DraftKings
under
-200
FanDuel
Omarion Hampton
Rushing Yards
38.5market 50% over
we project54.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Oronde Gadsden
Receiving Yards
12.5market 49% over
we project17.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-120
FanDuel
Oronde Gadsden
Receptions
3.5market 47% over
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-130
FanDuel
Oronde Gadsden II
Receiving Yards
12.5market 50% over
we project17.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Oronde Gadsden II
Receptions
1.5market 43% over
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-156
DraftKings
Que Robinson
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
RJ Harvey
Receiving Yards
10.5market 50% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
RJ Harvey
Receptions
3.5market 58% over
over
-167
DraftKings
under
+130
FanDuel
RJ Harvey
Rushing Yards
17.5market 50% over
we project14.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Talanoa Hufanga
Sacks
0.5
over
+750
FanDuel
under
—
Talanoa Hufanga Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
Tarheeb Still Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
Teair Tart
Sacks
0.5
over
+640
FanDuel
under
—
Tony Jefferson Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
Tre Harris
Receiving Yards
51.5market 50% over
we project45.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Tre Harris
Receptions
4.5market 60% over18.2pp between books — shop it
over
+116
FanDuel
under
+135
DraftKings
Troy Franklin
Receiving Yards
16.5market 40% over
over
+136
FanDuel
under
-182
DraftKings
Troy Franklin
Receptions
1.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Tuli Tuipulotu
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Wil Lutz
Kicking Points
7.5market 49% over
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Zach Allen
Sacks
0.5
over
-146
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
59.4%
5.6
Yards / att
6.6
154.8
Air yards / gm
240.6
-0.076
EPA / dropback
-0.193
-2.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
-4.8
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 3 of 6175.5 yards in 3 of 6200.5 yards in 2 of 6
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs DEN
Justin Herbert
LAC · 5 games, 143 attempts
25
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
24th of 34
28.6 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 49% pass · sacked on 10.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
28th of 34
6.6 yards per attempt · 59.4% completions · -0.193 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
24th of 32
DEN has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 6 games
≈ 169 yards26 attempts × 6.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 17.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 4 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Jaylen Waddle22.5% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Courtland Sutton16.2% target share · 5.7 PPR last 4
Pat Bryant7.5% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Tre Harris18.1% target share · 8.1 PPR last 4
Quentin Johnston13.8% target share · 4.5 PPR last 4
Ladd McConkey12.3% target share · 9.1 PPR last 4
J.K. Dobbins57.0% of team carries · 10.6 PPR last 4
RJ Harvey14.8% of team carries · 11.3 PPR last 4
Jonah Coleman7.0% of team carries · 7.4 PPR last 2
Omarion Hampton49.7% of team carries · 10.3 PPR last 4
Evan Engram11.0% target share · 3.6 PPR last 4
Nate Adkins2.9% target share · 6.9 PPR last 3
Oronde Gadsden II11.6% target share · 4.7 PPR last 4
David Njoku5.8% target share · 6.4 PPR last 2
