Final · New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27
Opened
-1.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-6.5
-5 since open
Total
53.5
Prices archived
269
63 spread · 30 total
Crossed 3 since opening0.5 points short of 7
Where the best number is
WSH-6.5DraftKings
NYG+6.5DraftKings
Over49.5FanDuel
Under53.5DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
NYG
18.2%
WSH
81.8%
Teams the market priced at 80–85% won 267 of 324 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
5.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jameis Winston · NYGQB Index componentsJayden Daniels · WAS
44 · C
Index
28 · F
33.0
Attempts / gm
25.3
7.7%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.3%
57.6%
Completion
QB Index · vs WAS
Jameis Winston
NYG · 4 games, 132 attempts
44
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
13th of 34
33.0 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 7.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
28th of 34
6.1 yards per attempt · 57.6% completions · -0.057 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
17th of 32
WAS has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 187 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 34 prices on record
Open
Opened -1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
33 reprices since, 45 points of movement in all. It closed -6.5 — the favourite is 5 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -12.5 to -1.5 along the way, retracing 40 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Sep 7, 2 PM ET.
57% 5+ days out1% 5–2 days out4% Final two days38% Gameday
Biggest move
7 points at once — -5.5 to -12.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 3 PM ET.
Crossed 7
-5.5 to -12.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 3 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Crossed 10
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 12 prices on record
Open
Opened 48.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
11 reprices since, 45 points of movement in all. It closed 53.5 — 5 points higher than the open. It ranged from 35.5 to 53.5 along the way, retracing 40 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET.
20% 5+ days out4% 5–2 days out76% Gameday
Biggest move
14 points at once — 39.5 to 53.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 4 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 6.5 covered 151 of 325 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 234 of 325.
The total
Totals of 53.5 went over 25 of 43 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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Player props · 64
Abdul Carter
Sacks
0.5
over
+120
FanDuel
under
—
Amik Robertson Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
Antonio Williams
Receiving Yards
33.5market 50% over
we project31.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Antonio Williams
Receptions
3.5market 13% over41.2pp between books — shop it
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Arvell Reese
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Arvell Reese Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+2000
DraftKings
under
—
Cam Skattebo
Receiving Yards
8.5market 49% over
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Cam Skattebo
Receptions
1.5market 63% over
over
-205
FanDuel
under
+152
FanDuel
Cam Skattebo
Rushing Yards
31.5market 49% over
we project58.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Cameron Skattebo
Carries
11.5market 42% over
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-167
DraftKings
Cameron Skattebo
Receiving Yards
5.5
over
+350
DraftKings
under
—
Cameron Skattebo
Receptions
1.5market 39% over
over
+280
DraftKings
under
+146
DraftKings
Cameron Skattebo
Rushing Yards
27.5
over
+100
DraftKings
under
—
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Receiving Yards
60.5market 50% over31.5pp between books — shop it
over
+360
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Receptions
4.5market 33% over
over
+330
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
D.J. Reader
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Darnell Mooney
Receiving Yards
17.5market 51% over
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Darnell Mooney
Receptions
1.5market 53% over4.2pp between books — shop it
over
-114
FanDuel
under
+100
DraftKings
Dominic Zvada
Kicking Points
5.5market 55% over
over
-139
DraftKings
under
+108
DraftKings
Dorance Armstrong
Sacks
0.5
over
+300
FanDuel
under
—
Drew Stevens
Kicking Points
7.5market 49% over
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Dru Phillips Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
—
Frankie Luvu
Sacks
0.5
over
+300
FanDuel
under
—
Greg Newsome Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
—
Isaiah Likely
Receiving Yards
41.5market 50% over
we project56.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Isaiah Likely
Receptions
4.5market 52% over3.2pp between books — shop it
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-104
DraftKings
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Carries
13.5market 55% over
we project13.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Receiving Yards
0.5market 10% over35.2pp between books — shop it
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
-168
FanDuel
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Receptions
1.5market 34% over3.5pp between books — shop it
over
+176
DraftKings
under
-205
FanDuel
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Rushing Yards
78.5market 50% over
we project47.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jameis Winston
Completions
19.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Interceptions
0.5market 57% over
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+115
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Pass Attempts
38.5market 50% over
we project33.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Passing TDs
1.5market 42% over7.1pp between books — shop it
over
+168
FanDuel
under
-167
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Passing Yards
201.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jameis Winston
Rushing Yards
5.5market 45% over7.5pp between books — shop it
we project10.5/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+142
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Jayden Daniels
Carries
9.5market 58% over
we project7.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-167
DraftKings
under
+120
DraftKings
Jayden Daniels
Completions
10.5market 56% over
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
Jayden Daniels
Interceptions
0.5market 23% over
over
+320
DraftKings
under
-455
DraftKings
Jayden Daniels
Pass Attempts
21.5market 45% over
we project25.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Jayden Daniels
Passing TDs
1.5market 33% over9.2pp between books — shop it
over
+185
DraftKings
under
-165
FanDuel
Jayden Daniels
Passing Yards
200.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jayden Daniels
Rushing Yards
28.5market 51% over
we project67.7/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Jeremy Reaves Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+15000
DraftKings
under
—
Jevon Holland Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
K'Lavon Chaisson
Sacks
0.5
over
+144
FanDuel
under
—
Kayvon Thibodeaux
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Malachi Fields
Receiving Yards
25.5market 49% over
we project29.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Malachi Fields
Receptions
2.5market 32% over14.2pp between books — shop it
over
+255
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Malik Nabers
Receiving Yards
55.5market 50% over
we project65.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Malik Nabers
Receptions
4.5market 42% over14.2pp between books — shop it
over
+120
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Mike Sainristil Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
Najee Harris
Rushing Yards
14.5market 49% over39.5pp between books — shop it
we project24.3/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+650
DraftKings
under
-118
FanDuel
Odafe Oweh
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
Rachaad White
Receiving Yards
2.5market 51% over43.4pp between books — shop it
over
+800
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Rachaad White
Receptions
1.5market 18% over47.2pp between books — shop it
over
+700
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Rachaad White
Rushing Yards
19.5market 50% over42.2pp between books — shop it
we project29.5/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+800
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Rasul Douglas Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+700
DraftKings
under
—
Shelby Harris
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Sonny Styles
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Sonny Styles Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1700
DraftKings
under
—
Terry McLaurin
Receiving Yards
50.5market 50% over
we project50.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Terry McLaurin
Receptions
3.5market 14% over38.6pp between books — shop it
over
+950
DraftKings
under
-144
FanDuel
Tyler Nubin Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1200
DraftKings
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
60.5%
6.1
Yards / att
6.0
317.5
Air yards / gm
224.3
-0.057
EPA / dropback
0.021
-7.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
+2.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs NYG
Jayden Daniels
WAS · 3 games, 76 attempts
28
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
29th of 34
25.3 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 7.3% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
20th of 34
6.0 yards per attempt · 60.5% completions · 0.021 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
23rd of 32
NYG has allowed 6.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 181 yards30 attempts × 6.0 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 30.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 2 of 3175.5 yards in 1 of 3200.5 yards in 0 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
-5.5 to -12.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 3 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.
Crossed 7
-12.5 to -6.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 4 PM ET — back through 7.
4 key-number crossings in all.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 42 hours, then left it on Tue, Oct 6, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Malik Nabers28.0% target share · 15.3 PPR last 4
Darnell Mooney10.4% target share · 3.8 PPR last 4
Malachi Fields10.4% target share · 6.5 PPR last 4
Stefon Diggs20.1% target share · 13.3 PPR last 4
Terry McLaurin17.5% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Antonio Williams14.3% target share · 5 PPR last 4
Cam Skattebo57.4% of team carries · 9.3 PPR last 4
Najee Harris19.9% of team carries · 2.8 PPR last 4
Devin Singletary6.4% of team carries · 7.4 PPR last 2
Jacory Croskey-Merritt47.9% of team carries · 8.1 PPR last 4
Isaiah Likely29.3% target share · 14.4 PPR last 4
Theo Johnson5.5% target share · 3.9 PPR last 4
Chig Okonkwo8.4% target share · 5.4 PPR last 3
John Bates3.9% target share · 2.1 PPR last 3
