Crossed 7 & 10 since opening1 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
TEN+22.5DraftKings
HOU-21.5FanDuel
Over29.5DraftKings
Under34.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
HOU
98.2%
TEN
1.8%
We hold too few games at this price to say what it has been worth historically, so we don't.
1.7%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 101.7%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
C.J. Stroud · HOUQB Index componentsCam Ward · TEN
74 · A
Index
43 · D
37.0
Attempts / gm
31.0
7.0%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.1%
64.3%
Completion
QB Index · vs TEN
C.J. Stroud
HOU · 5 games, 185 attempts
74
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
9th of 34
37.0 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 61% pass · sacked on 7.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.6 yards per attempt · 64.3% completions · 0.089 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
6th of 32
TEN has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 262 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 11 prices on record
Open
Opened +3.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
10 reprices since, 24 points of movement in all. It closed +22.5 — the favourite is 19 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from +3.5 to +22.5 along the way, retracing 5 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET.
15% 5+ days out6% 5–2 days out2% Final two days77% Gameday
Biggest move
9 points at once — +12.5 to +21.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 3 PM ET.
Crossed 7
+6.5 to +7.5 on Tue, Oct 6, 8 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Crossed 7
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 10 prices on record
Open
Opened 43.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
9 reprices since, 20 points of movement in all. It closed 29.5 — 14 points lower than the open. It ranged from 29.5 to 43.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Oct 8, 8 PM ET.
25% 5+ days out25% 5–2 days out50% Gameday
Biggest move
6 points at once — 35.5 to 29.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 4 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
No history held for a spread of 22.5 — we do not round it to a nearby number, because 22.5 and the rung beside it are different questions.
No history held for a total of 29.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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Player props · 70
Alontae Taylor Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
C.J. Stroud
Completions
27.5market 42% over
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-161
DraftKings
C.J. Stroud
Interceptions
0.5market 9% over
over
+950
DraftKings
under
-2000
DraftKings
C.J. Stroud
Pass Attempts
37.5market 47% over
we project37.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
C.J. Stroud
Passing TDs
1.5market 44% over
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-152
DraftKings
C.J. Stroud
Passing Yards
279.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
C.J. Stroud
Rushing Yards
4.5market 50% over
we project14.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Calen Bullock Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+6000
DraftKings
under
—
Calvin Ridley
Receiving Yards
23.5market 43% over4.8pp between books — shop it
over
+140
FanDuel
under
-156
DraftKings
Calvin Ridley
Receptions
0.5market 63% over3.9pp between books — shop it
over
-172
FanDuel
under
+157
DraftKings
Cam Ward
Passing TDs
0.5market 60% over
over
-178
FanDuel
under
+136
FanDuel
Cam Ward
Passing Yards
133.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Cam Ward
Rushing Yards
4.5market 51% over
we project11.8/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Cameron Ward
Completions
17.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Interceptions
1.5market 33% over
over
+180
DraftKings
under
-250
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Pass Attempts
33.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Passing TDs
0.5market 37% over
over
+150
DraftKings
under
-208
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Passing Yards
144.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Rushing Yards
3.5market 51% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Carnell Tate
Receiving Yards
46.5market 50% over
we project54.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Carnell Tate
Receptions
4.5market 46% over
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-133
DraftKings
Cor'Dale Flott Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+950
DraftKings
under
—
Dalton Schultz
Receiving Yards
30.5market 37% over11.0pp between books — shop it
we project48.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+150
DraftKings
under
-128
FanDuel
Dalton Schultz
Receptions
4.5market 43% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-161
DraftKings
Danielle Hunter
Sacks
0.5
over
-172
FanDuel
under
—
David Montgomery
Carries
12.5market 51% over
we project10.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
David Montgomery
Receiving Yards
7.5market 49% over
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-120
FanDuel
David Montgomery
Receptions
1.5market 44% over
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-146
FanDuel
David Montgomery
Rushing Yards
40.5market 50% over
we project27.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Derek Stingley Jr. Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+5500
DraftKings
under
—
Elic Ayomanor
Receiving Yards
0.5market 47% over4.0pp between books — shop it
we project26.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-132
DraftKings
Elic Ayomanor
Receptions
1.5market 40% over7.9pp between books — shop it
over
+135
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Gunnar Helm
Receiving Yards
16.5market 50% over
we project12.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Gunnar Helm
Receptions
2.5market 45% over
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-139
DraftKings
Jacob Martin
Sacks
0.5
over
+210
FanDuel
under
—
Jadeveon Clowney
Sacks
0.5
over
+144
FanDuel
under
—
Jalen Pitre Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+650
DraftKings
under
—
Jaylin Noel
Receiving Yards
19.5market 50% over
we project45.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Jaylin Noel
Receptions
1.5market 59% over3.9pp between books — shop it
over
-146
FanDuel
under
+125
DraftKings
Jeffery Simmons
Sacks
0.5
over
-130
FanDuel
under
—
Jermaine Johnson II
Sacks
0.5
over
+210
FanDuel
under
—
Joey Slye
Kicking Points
5.5market 53% over
over
-130
DraftKings
under
+101
DraftKings
John Franklin-Myers
Sacks
0.5
over
+210
FanDuel
under
—
Ka'imi Fairbairn
Kicking Points
7.5market 52% over
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Kamari Lassiter Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+700
DraftKings
under
—
Kamari Ramsey Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1400
DraftKings
under
—
Kayshon Boutte
Receiving Yards
38.5market 27% over6.5pp between books — shop it
we project30.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+245
DraftKings
under
-250
FanDuel
Kayshon Boutte
Receptions
2.5market 43% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-156
DraftKings
Kevin Winston Jr. Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+15000
DraftKings
under
—
Nico Collins
Receiving Yards
81.5market 50% over1.5pp between books — shop it
we project83.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Nico Collins
Receptions
5.5market 51% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Reed Blankenship Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+11000
DraftKings
under
—
Sheldon Rankins
Sacks
0.5
over
+142
FanDuel
under
—
Tony Adams Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1400
DraftKings
under
—
Tony Pollard
Carries
12.5market 53% over
we project13.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Tony Pollard
Receiving Yards
0.5market 44% over3.8pp between books — shop it
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-125
FanDuel
Tony Pollard
Receptions
1.5market 50% over5.1pp between books — shop it
over
-120
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Tony Pollard
Rushing Yards
48.5market 53% over2.8pp between books — shop it
we project54.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-105
DraftKings
Tyjae Spears
Receiving Yards
28.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Tyjae Spears
Receptions
1.5market 62% over
over
-182
FanDuel
under
+145
DraftKings
Tyjae Spears
Rushing Yards
14.5market 8% over48.1pp between books — shop it
we project13.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+1900
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Wan'Dale Robinson
Receiving Yards
32.5market 50% over
we project35.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Wan'Dale Robinson
Receptions
3.5market 45% over10.2pp between books — shop it
over
+105
DraftKings
under
+108
FanDuel
Will Anderson Jr.
Sacks
0.5
over
-188
FanDuel
under
—
Woody Marks
Carries
16.5market 51% over
we project8.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Woody Marks
Receiving Yards
21.5market 33% over6.9pp between books — shop it
over
+185
DraftKings
under
-186
FanDuel
Woody Marks
Receptions
1.5market 50% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Woody Marks
Rushing Yards
56.5market 50% over
we project29.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Xavier Hutchinson
Receiving Yards
14.5market 50% over
we project46.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Xavier Hutchinson
Receptions
1.5market 41% over
over
+134
FanDuel
under
-175
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
63.2%
7.6
Yards / att
5.8
355.4
Air yards / gm
215.8
0.089
EPA / dropback
-0.185
+4.0
CPOE
completion % over expected
+2.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 26.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs HOU
Cam Ward
TEN · 5 games, 155 attempts
43
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
17th of 34
31.0 attempts per game · team runs 53 plays at 59% pass · sacked on 6.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
5.8 yards per attempt · 63.2% completions · -0.185 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
15th of 32
HOU has allowed 7.2 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 168 yards29 attempts × 5.8 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 3.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 4 of 5175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
+5.5 to +9.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Crossed 10
+9.5 to +12.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.
Held 7
It sat on 7 for 41 hours, then left it on Sun, Oct 11, 1 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Xavier Hutchinson18.1% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Nico Collins14.6% target share · 20.9 PPR last 3
Kayshon Boutte10.5% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Carnell Tate25.7% target share · 10.2 PPR last 4
Wan'Dale Robinson20.8% target share · 10.7 PPR last 4
Elic Ayomanor8.3% target share · 4.2 PPR last 4
David Montgomery45.2% of team carries · 4.2 PPR last 4
Woody Marks37.4% of team carries · 9.6 PPR last 4
Tony Pollard63.6% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Tyjae Spears15.9% of team carries · 5.2 PPR last 4
Dalton Schultz18.1% target share · 10.2 PPR last 4
Foster Moreau7.0% target share · 4.5 PPR last 4
Gunnar Helm9.7% target share · 2.5 PPR last 4
Daniel Bellinger4.9% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4