Final · Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34
Opened
-2.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-12.5
-10 since open
Total
56.5
Prices archived
207
29 spread · 26 total
Crossed 3 & 7 & 10 since opening1 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
PIT-11.5FanDuel
IND+12.5DraftKings
Over55.5FanDuel
Under56.5DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
IND
1.0%
PIT
99.0%
We hold too few games at this price to say what it has been worth historically, so we don't.
0.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 100.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Daniel Jones · INDQB Index componentsAaron Rodgers · PIT
50 · C
Index
63 · B+
35.2
Attempts / gm
36.8
4.9%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.1%
61.4%
QB Index · vs PIT
Daniel Jones
IND · 5 games, 176 attempts
50
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
11th of 34
35.2 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 4.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
29th of 34
5.8 yards per attempt · 61.4% completions · -0.130 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
11th of 32
PIT has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 194 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 9 prices on record
Open
Opened -2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
8 reprices since, 22 points of movement in all. It closed -12.5 — the favourite is 10 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -12.5 to +1.5 along the way, retracing 12 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET.
2% Final two days98% Gameday
Biggest move
7 points at once — -5.5 to -12.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 4 PM ET.
Crossed 3
-1.5 to -5.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 3 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 7
-5.5 to -12.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 4 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Crossed 10
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record
Open
Opened 47.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
7 reprices since, 29 points of movement in all. It closed 56.5 — 9 points higher than the open. It ranged from 40.5 to 56.5 along the way, retracing 20 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET.
10% 5+ days out4% Final two days86% Gameday
Biggest move
14 points at once — 40.5 to 54.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 12.5 covered 30 of 46 games.
The range clears a coin flip.
They won outright in 42 of 46.
The total
Totals of 56.5 went over 5 of 14 times.
Only 14 games at this number — too few to read.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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Player props · 59
Aaron Rodgers
Completions
23.5market 51% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Interceptions
0.5market 18% over
over
+425
DraftKings
under
-667
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Pass Attempts
32.5market 45% over
we project36.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Passing TDs
1.5market 41% over4.1pp between books — shop it
over
+125
DraftKings
under
-138
FanDuel
Aaron Rodgers
Passing Yards
224.5market 41% over16.2pp between books — shop it
over
+170
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Rushing Yards
0.5market 50% over
we project3.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Alex Highsmith
Sacks
0.5
over
-102
FanDuel
under
—
Asante Samuel Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Cameron Heyward
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Camryn Bynum Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+550
DraftKings
under
—
Charvarius Ward Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
—
Chris Boswell
Kicking Points
7.5market 51% over
over
-118
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Carries
3.5market 61% over
we project2.8/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-192
DraftKings
under
+140
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Completions
23.5market 55% over
over
-147
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Interceptions
0.5market 26% over
over
+265
DraftKings
under
-385
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Pass Attempts
35.5market 49% over
we project35.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Passing TDs
1.5market 33% over
over
+188
DraftKings
under
-240
FanDuel
Daniel Jones
Passing Yards
209.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Rushing Yards
4.5market 50% over4.2pp between books — shop it
we project5.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Darnell Washington
Receiving Yards
22.5market 49% over
we project26.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Darnell Washington
Receptions
2.5market 44% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-152
DraftKings
DeForest Buckner
Sacks
0.5
over
+144
FanDuel
under
—
DK Metcalf
Receiving Yards
25.5market 50% over
we project45.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
DK Metcalf
Receptions
4.5market 37% over7.5pp between books — shop it
over
+155
DraftKings
under
-152
FanDuel
Germie Bernard
Receiving Yards
57.5market 50% over
we project35.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Germie Bernard
Receptions
2.5market 40% over
over
+138
DraftKings
under
-179
DraftKings
Grover Stewart
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Jalen Ramsey Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+700
DraftKings
under
—
Jaquan Brisker Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Jaylen Warren
Carries
12.5market 50% over
we project14.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Jaylen Warren
Receiving Yards
20.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Jaylen Warren
Receptions
2.5market 58% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
-161
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Jaylen Warren
Rushing Yards
62.5market 50% over
we project82.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor
Carries
14.5market 57% over
we project20.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+115
DraftKings
Jonathan Taylor
Receiving Yards
15.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor
Receptions
2.5market 62% over11.3pp between books — shop it
over
-122
FanDuel
under
+145
DraftKings
Jonathan Taylor
Rushing Yards
59.5market 49% over28.5pp between books — shop it
we project79.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Josh Downs
Receiving Yards
55.5market 50% over
we project49.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Josh Downs
Receptions
4.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+100
FanDuel
JT Tuimoloau
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Keenan Allen
Receiving Yards
28.5market 50% over
we project36.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Keenan Allen
Receptions
2.5market 36% over27.3pp between books — shop it
over
+160
DraftKings
under
+142
FanDuel
Laiatu Latu
Sacks
0.5
over
+142
FanDuel
under
—
Laquon Treadwell
Receiving Yards
16.5market 49% over
we project31.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Laquon Treadwell
Receptions
1.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-132
FanDuel
Michael Pittman Jr.
Receiving Yards
25.5market 50% over
we project29.7/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Michael Pittman Jr.
Receptions
2.5market 52% over3.6pp between books — shop it
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-103
DraftKings
Nick Herbig
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Pat Freiermuth
Receiving Yards
27.5market 49% over
we project33.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Pat Freiermuth
Receptions
3.5market 44% over
over
+116
DraftKings
under
-149
DraftKings
Robert Spears-Jennings Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
—
Roman Wilson
Receiving Yards
41.5market 50% over
we project37.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Roman Wilson
Receptions
2.5market 56% over5.4pp between books — shop it
over
-122
FanDuel
under
+110
DraftKings
Sauce Gardner Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
—
Sean Murphy-Bunting Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+950
DraftKings
under
—
Spencer Shrader
Kicking Points
6.5market 52% over
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-104
DraftKings
T.J. Watt
Sacks
0.5
over
-146
FanDuel
under
—
Tyler Warren
Receiving Yards
97.5market 50% over
we project42.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Tyler Warren
Receptions
5.5market 53% over12.8pp between books — shop it
over
+124
FanDuel
under
+100
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
59.8%
5.8
Yards / att
6.7
256.0
Air yards / gm
315.0
-0.130
EPA / dropback
-0.071
-2.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs IND
Aaron Rodgers
PIT · 5 games, 184 attempts
63
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
10th of 34
36.8 attempts per game · team runs 59 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 7.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 34
6.7 yards per attempt · 59.8% completions · -0.071 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
4th of 32
IND has allowed 8.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 232 yards35 attempts × 6.7 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 34.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
-5.5 to -12.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 4 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 42 hours, then left it on Sun, Oct 11, 8 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Josh Downs20.5% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4
Keenan Allen17.5% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4
Laquon Treadwell11.4% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
DK Metcalf21.1% target share · 10.1 PPR last 4
Roman Wilson14.3% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4
Germie Bernard11.4% target share · 6.8 PPR last 4
Jonathan Taylor74.8% of team carries · 18.1 PPR last 4
Seth McGowan12.6% of team carries · 2.3 PPR last 4
Jaylen Warren73.7% of team carries · 20.7 PPR last 4
Rico Dowdle15.8% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 2
Tyler Warren21.7% target share · 14.9 PPR last 4
Pat Freiermuth14.9% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
Darnell Washington9.1% target share · 6.6 PPR last 4