Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
CLE
9.7%
NYJ
90.3%
Teams the market priced at 90–95% won 44 of 46 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 4.2 points.
6.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.
Head to head
Deshaun Watson · CLEQB Index componentsGeno Smith · NYJ
33 · F
Index
44 · C
29.6
Attempts / gm
29.4
11.4%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
9.8%
64.2%
Completion
QB Index · vs NYJ
Deshaun Watson
CLE · 5 games, 148 attempts
33
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
21st of 34
29.6 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 54% pass · sacked on 11.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
20th of 34
6.8 yards per attempt · 64.2% completions · 0.024 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
29th of 32
NYJ has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 180 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 24 prices on record
Open
Opened -2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
23 reprices since, 24 points of movement in all. It closed -4.5 — the favourite is 2 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -4.5 to -1.5 along the way, retracing 22 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 9, 8 PM ET.
75% 5+ days out8% 5–2 days out17% Gameday
Biggest move
2 points at once — -2.5 to -4.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 1 PM ET.
Crossed 3
-2.5 to -4.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 1 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 9 prices on record
Open
Opened 39.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
8 reprices since, 28 points of movement in all. It closed 29.5 — 10 points lower than the open. It ranged from 22.5 to 40.5 along the way, retracing 18 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 3 PM ET.
7% 5+ days out93% Gameday
Biggest move
12 points at once — 34.5 to 22.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 3 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 4.5 covered 127 of 254 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 169 of 254.
No history held for a total of 29.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
10
390 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 62
Andre Cisco Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+750
DraftKings
under
—
Andre Szmyt
Kicking Points
5.5market 51% over
over
-118
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Azareye'h Thomas Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+950
DraftKings
under
—
Braelon Allen
Carries
19.5market 45% over
we project11.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Braelon Allen
Receiving Yards
1.5market 47% over2.8pp between books — shop it
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-135
DraftKings
Braelon Allen
Receptions
2.5market 43% over4.0pp between books — shop it
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Braelon Allen
Rushing Yards
71.5market 50% over
we project47.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Brandon Stephens Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
Carson Schwesinger
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Carson Schwesinger Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1500
DraftKings
under
—
Dane Belton Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+650
DraftKings
under
—
David Bailey
Sacks
0.5
over
+144
FanDuel
under
—
Demario Davis Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+2000
DraftKings
under
—
Denzel Boston
Receiving Yards
41.5market 50% over
we project66.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Denzel Boston
Receptions
3.5market 46% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
+108
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Denzel Ward Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+6000
DraftKings
under
—
Derek Barnett
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Deshaun Watson
Carries
5.5market 59% over
we project7.4/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-175
DraftKings
under
+130
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Completions
15.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Interceptions
0.5market 23% over
over
+310
DraftKings
under
-455
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Pass Attempts
28.5market 45% over
we project29.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Passing TDs
1.5market 34% over
over
+179
DraftKings
under
-225
FanDuel
Deshaun Watson
Passing Yards
137.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Deshaun Watson
Rushing Yards
22.5market 50% over
we project33.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Garrett Wilson
Receiving Yards
101.5market 50% over
we project74.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Garrett Wilson
Receptions
6.5market 42% over
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-160
FanDuel
Geno Smith
Completions
17.5market 58% over
over
-161
DraftKings
under
+120
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Interceptions
0.5market 28% over
over
+235
DraftKings
under
-333
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Pass Attempts
31.5market 46% over
we project29.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Passing TDs
1.5market 21% over16.0pp between books — shop it
over
+340
DraftKings
under
-210
FanDuel
Geno Smith
Passing Yards
193.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Rushing Yards
7.5market 45% over
we project8.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+110
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Grant Delpit Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+9000
DraftKings
under
—
Harold Fannin Jr.
Receiving Yards
8.5market 50% over
we project31.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Harold Fannin Jr.
Receptions
4.5market 42% over
over
+130
FanDuel
under
-161
DraftKings
Isaiah Davis
Rushing Yards
11.5market 51% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-104
FanDuel
Isaiah McGuire
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
Isaiah Williams
Receiving Yards
16.5market 45% over2.7pp between books — shop it
we project30.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-125
FanDuel
Isaiah Williams
Receptions
2.5market 41% over5.1pp between books — shop it
over
+125
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
Jared Verse
Sacks
0.5
over
-102
FanDuel
under
—
Jason Sanders
Kicking Points
6.5market 52% over
over
-122
DraftKings
under
-106
DraftKings
Jerry Jeudy
Receiving Yards
12.5market 49% over1.6pp between books — shop it
we project20.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jerry Jeudy
Receptions
1.5market 39% over3.0pp between books — shop it
over
+140
DraftKings
under
-166
FanDuel
KC Concepcion
Receiving Yards
37.5market 50% over
we project29.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
KC Concepcion
Receptions
4.5market 44% over
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-145
DraftKings
Kenyon Sadiq
Receiving Yards
16.5market 50% over
we project29.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Kenyon Sadiq
Receptions
3.5market 39% over3.0pp between books — shop it
over
+140
DraftKings
under
-166
FanDuel
Kingsley Enagbare
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Maliek Collins
Sacks
0.5
over
+116
FanDuel
under
—
Mason Taylor
Receiving Yards
24.5market 40% over9.8pp between books — shop it
over
+205
FanDuel
under
-185
DraftKings
Mason Taylor
Receptions
1.5market 51% over5.1pp between books — shop it
over
-125
DraftKings
under
+116
FanDuel
Minkah Fitzpatrick Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Quinshon Judkins
Carries
14.5market 47% over
we project14.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Quinshon Judkins
Receiving Yards
15.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Quinshon Judkins
Receptions
2.5market 51% over3.9pp between books — shop it
over
-116
DraftKings
under
+102
FanDuel
Quinshon Judkins
Rushing Yards
59.5market 50% over
we project44.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Raheim Sanders
Receiving Yards
1.5market 43% over3.0pp between books — shop it
over
+130
FanDuel
under
-156
DraftKings
Raheim Sanders
Receptions
1.5market 47% over12.0pp between books — shop it
over
-105
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Ronnie Hickman Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+600
DraftKings
under
—
T'Vondre Sweat
Sacks
0.5
over
+470
FanDuel
under
—
Tyson Campbell Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
Will McDonald IV
Sacks
0.5
over
+106
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
69.4%
6.8
Yards / att
7.4
211.8
Air yards / gm
200.0
0.024
EPA / dropback
0.054
-1.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
+2.6
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 12.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs CLE
Geno Smith
NYJ · 5 games, 147 attempts
44
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
22nd of 34
29.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 9.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
14th of 34
7.4 yards per attempt · 69.4% completions · 0.054 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
21st of 32
CLE has allowed 6.9 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 196 yards27 attempts × 7.4 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 17.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5250.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Denzel Boston20.3% target share · 13.8 PPR last 4
KC Concepcion19.6% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Jerry Jeudy10.1% target share · 4 PPR last 4
Garrett Wilson30.5% target share · 18.1 PPR last 4
Adonai Mitchell10.6% target share · 10.7 PPR last 2
Isaiah Williams9.9% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Quinshon Judkins62.4% of team carries · 12.3 PPR last 4
Raheim Sanders7.7% of team carries · 4.3 PPR last 4
Braelon Allen46.0% of team carries · 10.1 PPR last 4
Breece Hall41.1% of team carries · 14.2 PPR last 3
Harold Fannin Jr.18.2% target share · 11.9 PPR last 4
Kenyon Sadiq14.9% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Jeremy Ruckert5.7% target share · 6.3 PPR last 3
Mason Taylor4.3% target share · 3.6 PPR last 2