Final · Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13
Opened
+1.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
+5.5
+4 since open
Total
36.5
Prices archived
180
27 spread · 29 total
Crossed 3 since opening1 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
NO+6.5FanDuel
MIN-5.5DraftKings
Over36.5DraftKings
Under43.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
MIN
80.7%
NO
19.3%
Teams the market priced at 80–85% won 267 of 324 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
6.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Kyler Murray · MINQB Index componentsTyler Shough · NO
39 · D
Index
57 · B
25.3
Attempts / gm
41.0
8.2%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.0%
68.3%
Completion
QB Index · vs NO
Kyler Murray
MIN · 4 games, 101 attempts
39
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
30th of 34
25.3 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 8.2% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
18th of 34
6.6 yards per attempt · 68.3% completions · -0.076 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
10th of 32
NO has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 169 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record
Open
Opened +1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
7 reprices since, 20 points of movement in all. It closed +5.5 — the favourite is 4 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -3.5 to +5.5 along the way, retracing 16 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET.
5% 5+ days out10% 5–2 days out85% Gameday
Biggest move
9 points at once — -3.5 to +5.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 3 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+2.5 to +3.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 1 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 3
+3.5 to -1.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET — back through 3.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 15 prices on record
Open
Opened 44.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
14 reprices since, 38 points of movement in all. It closed 36.5 — 8 points lower than the open. It ranged from 32.5 to 45.5 along the way, retracing 30 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET.
13% 5+ days out5% 5–2 days out5% Final two days77% Gameday
Biggest move
11 points at once — 32.5 to 43.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 3 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 5.5 covered 125 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 178 of 275.
The total
Totals of 36.5 went over 64 of 126 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 58
Aaron Jones
Carries
18.5market 53% over
we project19.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Aaron Jones
Receiving Yards
4.5market 41% over5.1pp between books — shop it
over
+154
FanDuel
under
-172
DraftKings
Aaron Jones
Receptions
2.5market 51% over7.7pp between books — shop it
over
-125
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Aaron Jones
Rushing Yards
71.5market 50% over
we project82.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Alvin Kamara
Carries
9.5market 51% over
we project7.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Alvin Kamara
Receiving Yards
15.5market 49% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Alvin Kamara
Receptions
3.5market 36% over8.7pp between books — shop it
over
+160
DraftKings
under
-148
FanDuel
Alvin Kamara
Rushing Yards
24.5market 50% over39.0pp between books — shop it
we project21.5/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+600
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Andrew Van Ginkel
Sacks
0.5
over
+134
FanDuel
under
—
Blake Cashman
Sacks
0.5
over
+210
FanDuel
under
—
Byron Murphy Jr. Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+500
DraftKings
under
—
Cameron Jordan
Sacks
0.5
over
+235
FanDuel
under
—
Carl Granderson
Sacks
0.5
over
+162
FanDuel
under
—
Chase Young
Sacks
0.5
over
-154
FanDuel
under
—
Chris Olave
Receiving Yards
63.5market 50% over
we project107.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Chris Olave
Receptions
6.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-118
FanDuel
Dallas Turner
Sacks
0.5
over
-130
FanDuel
under
—
Daniel Carlson
Kicking Points
6.5market 51% over
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-109
DraftKings
Devaughn Vele
Receiving Yards
34.5market 50% over
we project50.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Devaughn Vele
Receptions
3.5market 44% over14.2pp between books — shop it
over
+110
DraftKings
under
+122
FanDuel
Harrison Smith Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+475
DraftKings
under
—
Isaiah Rodgers Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Jalen Redmond
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Jauan Jennings
Receiving Yards
0.5market 34% over
over
+178
FanDuel
under
-238
DraftKings
Jauan Jennings
Receptions
1.5market 17% over53.7pp between books — shop it
over
+950
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Jordan Addison
Receiving Yards
40.5market 50% over
we project40.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jordan Addison
Receptions
3.5market 46% over
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-135
DraftKings
Josh Metellus Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+600
DraftKings
under
—
Justin Jefferson
Receiving Yards
77.5market 50% over
we project64.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Justin Jefferson
Receptions
6.5market 38% over9.7pp between books — shop it
over
+145
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Justin Reid Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Juwan Johnson
Receiving Yards
42.5market 50% over
we project49.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Juwan Johnson
Receptions
4.5market 45% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-139
DraftKings
Kendre Miller
Carries
6.5market 47% over
we project7.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Kendre Miller
Rushing Yards
21.5market 50% over
we project20.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Kool-Aid McKinstry Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Kyler Murray
Completions
21.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Kyler Murray
Interceptions
0.5market 43% over
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-161
DraftKings
Kyler Murray
Pass Attempts
31.5market 49% over
we project25.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Kyler Murray
Passing TDs
1.5market 21% over19.6pp between books — shop it
over
+340
DraftKings
under
-182
FanDuel
Kyler Murray
Passing Yards
252.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Kyler Murray
Rushing Yards
42.5market 46% over1.9pp between books — shop it
we project23.3/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
Nathan Shepherd
Sacks
0.5
over
+265
FanDuel
under
—
Noah Fant
Receiving Yards
12.5market 50% over
we project18.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Noah Fant
Receptions
1.5market 42% over14.6pp between books — shop it
over
+125
DraftKings
under
+108
FanDuel
Odell Beckham Jr
Receiving Yards
3.5market 45% over
over
+108
FanDuel
under
-138
FanDuel
T.J. Hockenson
Receiving Yards
36.5market 49% over
we project40.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
T.J. Hockenson
Receptions
4.5market 48% over3.7pp between books — shop it
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Tai Felton
Receiving Yards
10.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Tai Felton
Receptions
1.5market 41% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
+131
DraftKings
under
-162
FanDuel
Tyler Shough
Completions
22.5market 50% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Interceptions
0.5market 57% over
over
-161
DraftKings
under
+115
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Pass Attempts
35.5market 51% over
we project41.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Passing TDs
1.5market 37% over
over
+154
FanDuel
under
-208
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Passing Yards
237.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Rushing Yards
0.5market 50% over
we project14.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-106
FanDuel
Tyree Wilson
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Will Reichard
Kicking Points
7.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+102
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
66.8%
6.6
Yards / att
6.3
158.5
Air yards / gm
326.2
-0.076
EPA / dropback
-0.023
+5.4
CPOE
completion % over expected
+1.8
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 2 of 4225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 0 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs MIN
Tyler Shough
NO · 5 games, 205 attempts
57
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
2nd of 34
41.0 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 6.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
22nd of 34
6.3 yards per attempt · 66.8% completions · -0.023 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
26th of 32
MIN has allowed 6.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 244 yards39 attempts × 6.3 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 15.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 4 of 5250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Crossed 3
-1.5 to -3.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
4 key-number crossings in all.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Justin Jefferson19.2% target share · 15.9 PPR last 4
Jordan Addison16.9% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Myles Price5.4% target share · 3 PPR last 4
Chris Olave27.6% target share · 17.6 PPR last 4
Devaughn Vele18.9% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Bryce Lance8.7% target share · 0.9 PPR last 4
Aaron Jones67.8% of team carries · 15.1 PPR last 4
Jordan Mason10.5% of team carries · 11.9 PPR last 1
Demond Claiborne4.2% of team carries · 1 PPR last 4
Travis Etienne27.2% of team carries · 10.3 PPR last 3
T.J. Hockenson20.8% target share · 8.9 PPR last 4
Gavin Bartholomew5.4% target share · 4.9 PPR last 2
Josh Oliver3.8% target share · 2.5 PPR last 3
Juwan Johnson16.3% target share · 12.8 PPR last 4
