Final · Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45
Opened
-8.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-17.5
-9 since open
Total
62.5
Prices archived
189
24 spread · 21 total
Crossed 10 since opening10 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
NE-17.5DraftKings
LV+27.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
LV
1.0%
NE
99.0%
We hold too few games at this price to say what it has been worth historically, so we don't.
0.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 100.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Kirk Cousins · LVQB Index componentsDrake Maye · NE
59 · B
Index
68 · B+
34.4
Attempts / gm
30.2
4.4%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.8%
65.1%
Completion
QB Index · vs NE
Kirk Cousins
LV · 5 games, 172 attempts
59
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
12th of 34
34.4 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 57% pass · sacked on 4.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
13th of 34
7.4 yards per attempt · 65.1% completions · 0.191 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
20th of 32
NE has allowed 6.9 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 254 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record
Open
Opened -8.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
5 reprices since, 19 points of movement in all. It closed -17.5 — the favourite is 9 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -17.5 to -3.5 along the way, retracing 10 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 3 PM ET.
26% 5+ days out74% Gameday
Biggest move
10 points at once — -7.5 to -17.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 3 PM ET.
Crossed 7
-8.5 to -3.5 on Tue, Sep 29, 8 PM ET — back through 7.
Crossed 7
-6.5 to -7.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 2 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Crossed 10
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record
Open
Opened 43.5 on Tue, Sep 29, 12 days before kickoff.
Move
6 reprices since, 25 points of movement in all. It closed 62.5 — 19 points higher than the open. It ranged from 43.5 to 62.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 3 PM ET.
4% 5+ days out4% Final two days92% Gameday
Biggest move
8 points at once — 54.5 to 62.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 4 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 17.5 covered 2 of 5 games.
Only 5 games at this number — too few to read.
They won outright in 3 of 5.
No history held for a total of 62.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
10
390 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 65
Andres Borregales
Kicking Points
7.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Ashton Jeanty
Carries
10.5market 54% over
we project17.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Ashton Jeanty
Receiving Yards
23.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Ashton Jeanty
Receptions
3.5market 44% over2.9pp between books — shop it
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Ashton Jeanty
Rushing Yards
45.5market 49% over
we project58.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Brock Bowers
Receiving Yards
73.5market 50% over
we project104.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Brock Bowers
Receptions
6.5market 48% over5.3pp between books — shop it
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Cody White
Receiving Yards
20.5market 50% over
we project21.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Cody White
Receptions
1.5market 61% over
over
-180
FanDuel
under
+140
DraftKings
Craig Woodson Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
—
Dareke Young
Receiving Yards
4.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Demario Douglas
Receiving Yards
25.5market 49% over
we project29.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Demario Douglas
Receptions
2.5market 45% over6.2pp between books — shop it
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-106
FanDuel
Drake Maye
Carries
4.5market 58% over
we project6.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-167
DraftKings
under
+120
DraftKings
Drake Maye
Completions
20.5market 42% over
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-161
DraftKings
Drake Maye
Interceptions
0.5market 21% over
over
+340
DraftKings
under
-500
DraftKings
Drake Maye
Pass Attempts
31.5market 50% over
we project30.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Drake Maye
Passing TDs
1.5market 67% over16.5pp between books — shop it
over
-122
FanDuel
under
+180
DraftKings
Drake Maye
Passing Yards
231.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Drake Maye
Rushing Yards
31.5market 50% over
we project32.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Dre'Mont Jones
Sacks
0.5
over
+134
FanDuel
under
—
Efton Chism III
Receiving Yards
49.5market 50% over
we project24.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Efton Chism III
Receptions
1.5market 61% over2.5pp between books — shop it
over
-172
FanDuel
under
+140
DraftKings
Eli Raridon
Receiving Yards
13.5market 40% over2.9pp between books — shop it
over
+152
FanDuel
under
-182
DraftKings
Eli Raridon
Receptions
1.5market 41% over3.5pp between books — shop it
over
+144
FanDuel
under
-172
DraftKings
Elijah Ponder
Sacks
0.5
over
+142
FanDuel
under
—
Eric Stokes Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+17000
DraftKings
under
—
Hunter Henry
Receiving Yards
36.5market 50% over
we project35.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Hunter Henry
Receptions
3.5market 56% over9.0pp between books — shop it
over
-102
FanDuel
under
+110
DraftKings
Jeremy Chinn Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1300
DraftKings
under
—
Kevin Byard Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+550
DraftKings
under
—
Kirk Cousins
Completions
23.5market 54% over
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Kirk Cousins
Interceptions
0.5market 37% over
over
+155
DraftKings
under
-213
DraftKings
Kirk Cousins
Pass Attempts
37.5market 50% over
we project34.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Kirk Cousins
Passing TDs
1.5market 69% over25.9pp between books — shop it
over
+110
FanDuel
under
+200
DraftKings
Kirk Cousins
Passing Yards
231.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Kirk Cousins
Rushing Yards
0.5market 31% over
we project-0.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+200
DraftKings
under
-270
FanDuel
Kwity Paye
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Kyle Williams
Receiving Yards
42.5market 29% over
we project27.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+220
DraftKings
under
-312
DraftKings
Kyle Williams
Receptions
2.5market 30% over
over
+215
DraftKings
under
-303
DraftKings
Marcus Jones Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
Matt Gay
Kicking Points
6.5market 54% over
over
-133
DraftKings
under
+104
DraftKings
Maxx Crosby
Sacks
0.5
over
-114
FanDuel
under
—
Michael Mayer
Receiving Yards
14.5market 50% over
we project34.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Michael Mayer
Receptions
3.5market 45% over4.5pp between books — shop it
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Mike Washington Jr.
Carries
2.5market 59% over
we project5.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-175
DraftKings
under
+130
DraftKings
Mike Washington Jr.
Receiving Yards
0.5market 38% over
over
+145
DraftKings
under
-200
DraftKings
Mike Washington Jr.
Receptions
0.5market 41% over
over
+125
DraftKings
under
-172
DraftKings
Mike Washington Jr.
Rushing Yards
5.5market 39% over
we project25.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+142
FanDuel
under
-192
FanDuel
Milton Williams
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
Nakobe Dean
Sacks
0.5
over
+410
FanDuel
under
—
Quay Walker
Sacks
0.5
over
+410
FanDuel
under
—
Rhamondre Stevenson
Carries
17.5market 50% over
we project11.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Rhamondre Stevenson
Receiving Yards
18.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Rhamondre Stevenson
Receptions
2.5market 50% over3.2pp between books — shop it
over
-116
DraftKings
under
+100
FanDuel
Rhamondre Stevenson
Rushing Yards
37.5market 49% over
we project45.4/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Romeo Doubs
Receiving Yards
49.5market 50% over
we project43.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Romeo Doubs
Receptions
3.5market 55% over
over
-136
FanDuel
under
+111
DraftKings
Taron Johnson Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1200
DraftKings
under
—
Tre Tucker
Receiving Yards
38.5market 50% over
we project54.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Tre Tucker
Receptions
3.5market 58% over10.2pp between books — shop it
over
-106
FanDuel
under
+120
DraftKings
TreVeyon Henderson
Carries
12.5market 53% over
we project10.5/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
TreVeyon Henderson
Receiving Yards
6.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
TreVeyon Henderson
Receptions
1.5market 40% over2.9pp between books — shop it
over
+135
DraftKings
under
-160
FanDuel
TreVeyon Henderson
Rushing Yards
45.5market 49% over1.5pp between books — shop it
we project40.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
65.6%
7.4
Yards / att
8.1
282.0
Air yards / gm
277.2
0.191
EPA / dropback
0.126
+1.9
CPOE
completion % over expected
+6.2
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 4 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5275.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs LV
Drake Maye
NE · 5 games, 151 attempts
68
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
19th of 34
30.2 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
8th of 34
8.1 yards per attempt · 65.6% completions · 0.126 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
5th of 32
LV has allowed 7.9 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 238 yards29 attempts × 8.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 40.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 5 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
-7.5 to -17.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 3 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Tre Tucker16.1% target share · 11.8 PPR last 4
Cody White8.6% target share · 9.4 PPR last 4
Jalen Nailor6.3% target share · 3.4 PPR last 3
Romeo Doubs15.3% target share · 11.7 PPR last 4
DeMario Douglas14.7% target share · 8.2 PPR last 4
Mack Hollins13.3% target share · 9 PPR last 4
Ashton Jeanty71.0% of team carries · 13 PPR last 4
Mike Washington Jr.20.2% of team carries · 4.2 PPR last 4
Connor Heyward3.2% of team carries · 0.4 PPR last 4
Rhamondre Stevenson39.9% of team carries · 11.6 PPR last 4
Brock Bowers19.5% target share · 23.7 PPR last 3
Michael Mayer14.4% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
Hunter Henry12.7% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Eli Raridon6.0% target share · 6 PPR last 4
