Final · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Dallas Cowboys 16
Opened
-9.5
First seen Sep 29
Closed
-6.5
+3 since open
Total
45.5
Prices archived
153
24 spread · 17 total
Crossed 7 since opening0.5 points short of 72 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
DAL-4.5DraftKings
TB+6.5FanDuel
Over45.5FanDuel
Under46.5DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
TB
25.8%
DAL
74.2%
Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
6.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.
Head to head
Baker Mayfield · TBQB Index componentsDak Prescott · DAL
55 · B
Index
72 · A
32.0
Attempts / gm
38.4
11.9%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
3.0%
63.5%
Completion
QB Index · vs DAL
Baker Mayfield
TB · 3 games, 96 attempts
55
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
15th of 34
32.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 11.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
6.4 yards per attempt · 63.5% completions · -0.274 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
3rd of 32
DAL has allowed 8.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 170 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 4 prices on record
Open
Opened -9.5 on Tue, Sep 29, 9 days before kickoff.
Move
3 reprices since, 5 points of movement in all. It closed -6.5 — the favourite is 3 points smaller than at the open. It ranged from -9.5 to -6.5 along the way, retracing 2 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Oct 8, 9 PM ET.
20% 5–2 days out80% Gameday
Biggest move
3 points at once — -9.5 to -6.5 on Thu, Oct 8, 9 PM ET.
Crossed 7
-9.5 to -6.5 on Thu, Oct 8, 9 PM ET — back through 7.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 4 prices on record
Open
Opened 46.5 on Tue, Sep 29, 9 days before kickoff.
Move
3 reprices since, 5 points of movement in all. It closed 45.5 — 1 point lower than the open. It ranged from 45.5 to 48.5 along the way, retracing 4 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Oct 8, 9 PM ET.
20% 5–2 days out20% Final two days60% Gameday
Biggest move
3 points at once — 48.5 to 45.5 on Thu, Oct 8, 9 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 6.5 covered 151 of 325 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 234 of 325.
The total
Totals of 45.5 went over 119 of 235 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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Player props · 72
Al-Quadin Muhammad
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Alex Anzalone Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1800
DraftKings
under
—
Brandon Aubrey
Kicking Points
8.5market 54% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+106
DraftKings
Brevyn Spann-Ford
Receiving Yards
5.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Brevyn Spann-Ford
Receptions
0.5market 47% over
over
+130
DraftKings
under
+107
DraftKings
Bucky Irving
Carries
15.5market 49% over
we project15.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Bucky Irving
Receiving Yards
12.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Bucky Irving
Receptions
2.5market 47% over5.3pp between books — shop it
over
+118
FanDuel
under
-132
DraftKings
Bucky Irving
Rushing Yards
52.5market 50% over
we project81.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Cade Otton
Receiving Yards
29.5market 50% over
we project36.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Cade Otton
Receptions
3.5market 47% over
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-128
DraftKings
Caleb Downs Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+650
DraftKings
under
—
Calijah Kancey
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
CeeDee Lamb
Receiving Yards
81.5market 50% over
we project101.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
CeeDee Lamb
Receptions
6.5market 50% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-115
DraftKings
Chase McLaughlin
Kicking Points
6.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-119
DraftKings
Chris Godwin
Receiving Yards
28.5market 50% over
we project35.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Chris Godwin
Receptions
3.5market 55% over
over
-138
FanDuel
under
+110
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Carries
2.5market 42% over
we project2.4/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-161
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Completions
21.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Interceptions
0.5market 36% over
over
+160
DraftKings
under
-222
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Pass Attempts
34.5market 47% over
we project38.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Passing TDs
1.5market 44% over22.5pp between books — shop it
over
+110
DraftKings
under
+172
FanDuel
Dak Prescott
Passing Yards
268.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Rushing Yards
9.5market 50% over
we project13.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
DaRon Bland Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+360
DraftKings
under
—
Dee Winters Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1500
DraftKings
under
—
Donovan Ezeiruaku
Sacks
0.5
over
+360
FanDuel
under
—
Emeka Egbuka
Receiving Yards
39.5market 50% over
we project38.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Emeka Egbuka
Receptions
2.5market 59% over4.3pp between books — shop it
over
-164
DraftKings
under
+146
FanDuel
George Pickens
Receiving Yards
62.5market 50% over
we project71.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
George Pickens
Receptions
4.5market 56% over4.6pp between books — shop it
over
-122
FanDuel
under
+115
DraftKings
Jacob Parrish Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+750
DraftKings
under
—
Jake Ferguson
Receiving Yards
26.5market 49% over
we project20.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jake Ferguson
Receptions
3.5market 42% over4.1pp between books — shop it
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
Jalon Daniels
Carries
8.5market 46% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Jalon Daniels
Completions
22.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Jalon Daniels
Interceptions
0.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Jalon Daniels
Pass Attempts
31.5market 47% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Jalon Daniels
Passing TDs
0.5market 69% over
over
-263
DraftKings
under
+201
DraftKings
Jalon Daniels
Passing Yards
181.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jalon Daniels
Rushing Yards
45.5market 50% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Javonte Williams
Carries
17.5market 50% over
we project14.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Javonte Williams
Receiving Yards
25.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Javonte Williams
Receptions
2.5market 53% over
over
-130
DraftKings
under
+101
DraftKings
Javonte Williams
Rushing Yards
69.5market 50% over
we project55.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
KaVontae Turpin
Receiving Yards
0.5market 47% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
+101
DraftKings
under
-125
FanDuel
KaVontae Turpin
Receptions
0.5market 47% over
over
-102
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
Kenneth Gainwell
Receiving Yards
8.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Kenneth Gainwell
Receptions
1.5market 44% over15.6pp between books — shop it
over
+110
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Kenneth Gainwell
Rushing Yards
10.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Kenny Clark
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Malachi Lawrence
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Malik Hooker Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Quinnen Williams
Sacks
0.5
over
+220
FanDuel
under
—
Rashan Gary
Sacks
0.5
over
+154
FanDuel
under
—
Rueben Bain Jr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+260
FanDuel
under
—
Ryan Flournoy
Receiving Yards
31.5market 50% over
we project38.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Ryan Flournoy
Receptions
3.5market 41% over3.3pp between books — shop it
over
+128
DraftKings
under
-148
FanDuel
Sean Tucker
Rushing Yards
5.5market 49% over1.6pp between books — shop it
over
-104
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Ted Hurst
Receiving Yards
6.5market 50% over
we project32.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Ted Hurst
Receptions
0.5market 60% over
over
-185
DraftKings
under
+135
DraftKings
Ted Hurst III
Receiving Yards
7.5market 50% over
we project32.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Ted Hurst III
Receptions
1.5market 47% over
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-130
FanDuel
Tez Johnson
Receiving Yards
12.5market 50% over
we project27.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Tez Johnson
Receptions
1.5market 40% over
over
+137
DraftKings
under
-179
DraftKings
Tykee Smith Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Tyler Goodson
Rushing Yards
13.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Vita Vea
Sacks
0.5
over
+360
FanDuel
under
—
Von Miller
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Yaya Diaby
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Zyon McCollum Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+950
DraftKings
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
67.2%
6.4
Yards / att
7.2
284.0
Air yards / gm
288.2
-0.274
EPA / dropback
0.229
+1.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
+3.0
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 19.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 2 of 3225.5 yards in 0 of 3250.5 yards in 0 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs TB
Dak Prescott
DAL · 5 games, 192 attempts
72
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
5th of 34
38.4 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 3.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.2 yards per attempt · 67.2% completions · 0.229 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
16th of 32
TB has allowed 7.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 268 yards37 attempts × 7.2 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 26.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 4 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Emeka Egbuka22.6% target share · 10.5 PPR last 4
Chris Godwin Jr.14.4% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Ted Hurst III11.0% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
CeeDee Lamb27.7% target share · 24.9 PPR last 4
George Pickens21.8% target share · 15.7 PPR last 4
Ryan Flournoy14.9% target share · 7.8 PPR last 4
Bucky Irving57.9% of team carries · 14.6 PPR last 4
Kenny Gainwell12.8% of team carries · 6 PPR last 4
Sean Tucker6.0% of team carries · 4.4 PPR last 2
Javonte Williams71.2% of team carries · 17.9 PPR last 4
Cade Otton18.5% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Jake Ferguson11.2% target share · 9.7 PPR last 4
Brevyn Spann-Ford3.2% target share · 0.7 PPR last 4
