Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
ATL
67.4%
NO
32.6%
Teams the market priced at 65–70% won 506 of 752 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
5.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Michael Penix Jr. · ATLQB Index componentsTyler Shough · NO
54 · B
Index
56 · B
25.7
Attempts / gm
41.0
4.9%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.0%
67.5%
QB Index · vs NO
Michael Penix Jr.
ATL · 3 games, 77 attempts
54
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
28th of 34
25.7 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 45% pass · sacked on 4.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
7th of 34
9.3 yards per attempt · 67.5% completions · 0.343 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
10th of 32
NO has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 238 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record
Open
Opened -2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 69 days before kickoff.
Move
6 reprices since, 11 points of movement in all. It closed +5.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -3.5 to +5.5 along the way, retracing 3 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Oct 5, 9 PM ET.
23% 5+ days out4% 5–2 days out9% Final two days64% Gameday
Biggest move
7 points at once — -1.5 to +5.5 on Mon, Oct 5, 9 PM ET.
Crossed 3
-2.5 to -3.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 3
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 9 prices on record
Open
Opened 45.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 69 days before kickoff.
Move
8 reprices since, 16 points of movement in all. It closed 55.5 — 10 points higher than the open. It ranged from 45.5 to 55.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 30, 2 PM ET.
50% 5+ days out50% Gameday
Biggest move
8 points at once — 47.5 to 55.5 on Mon, Oct 5, 9 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 5.5 covered 125 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 178 of 275.
The total
Totals of 55.5 went over 8 of 16 times.
Only 16 games at this number — too few to read.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 64
Alvin Kamara
Carries
10.5market 50% over
we project7.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Alvin Kamara
Receiving Yards
42.5market 49% over
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
Alvin Kamara
Receptions
2.5market 60% over
over
-172
FanDuel
under
+135
DraftKings
Alvin Kamara
Rushing Yards
34.5market 50% over
we project21.5/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Austin Hooper
Receiving Yards
11.5market 49% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Austin Hooper
Receptions
1.5market 55% over25.5pp between books — shop it
over
+194
FanDuel
under
+105
DraftKings
Bijan Robinson
Carries
21.5market 50% over
we project20.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Bijan Robinson
Receiving Yards
37.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Bijan Robinson
Receptions
4.5market 45% over
over
+114
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Bijan Robinson
Rushing Yards
87.5market 50% over
we project116.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Brandon Dorlus
Sacks
0.5
over
+200
FanDuel
under
—
Brian Robinson Jr.
Rushing Yards
28.5market 49% over
we project42.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Bryce Lance
Receiving Yards
21.5market 50% over
we project11.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Bryce Lance
Receptions
1.5market 43% over
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-154
DraftKings
Cameron Jordan
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Cameron Thomas
Sacks
0.5
over
+162
FanDuel
under
—
Carl Granderson
Sacks
0.5
over
+265
FanDuel
under
—
Chase Young
Sacks
0.5
over
-114
FanDuel
under
—
Chris Olave
Receiving Yards
84.5market 50% over
we project107.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Chris Olave
Receptions
6.5market 50% over2.4pp between books — shop it
over
-120
DraftKings
under
+100
FanDuel
Daniel Carlson
Kicking Points
7.5market 52% over
over
-122
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Devaughn Vele
Receiving Yards
44.5market 50% over
we project50.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Devaughn Vele
Receptions
4.5market 46% over5.4pp between books — shop it
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Drake London
Receiving Yards
67.5market 50% over
we project97.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Drake London
Receptions
5.5market 45% over11.8pp between books — shop it
over
+105
DraftKings
under
+116
FanDuel
Gervon Dexter Sr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Jahan Dotson
Receiving Yards
11.5market 50% over
we project29.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Jahan Dotson
Receptions
1.5market 38% over18.0pp between books — shop it
over
+150
DraftKings
under
+104
FanDuel
Juwan Johnson
Receiving Yards
45.5market 50% over
we project49.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Juwan Johnson
Receptions
4.5market 43% over
over
+117
DraftKings
under
-152
DraftKings
Kendre Miller
Carries
4.5market 56% over
we project7.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-147
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
Kendre Miller
Receiving Yards
0.5
over
+235
DraftKings
under
—
Kendre Miller
Receptions
0.5market 69% over42.1pp between books — shop it
over
+220
DraftKings
under
+198
FanDuel
Kendre Miller
Rushing Yards
7.5market 49% over
we project20.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-106
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Kyle Pitts
Receiving Yards
15.5market 51% over
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts
Receptions
2.5market 57% over
over
-158
FanDuel
under
+118
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Receiving Yards
14.5market 50% over
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Receptions
1.5market 51% over
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Completions
16.5market 53% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Interceptions
0.5market 37% over
over
+155
DraftKings
under
-213
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Pass Attempts
27.5market 51% over
we project25.7/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Passing TDs
1.5market 44% over3.1pp between books — shop it
over
+113
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Michael Penix Jr.
Passing Yards
224.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Rushing Yards
4.5market 51% over
we project1.3/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Nathan Shepherd
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Nick Folk
Kicking Points
7.5market 47% over
over
-101
DraftKings
under
-127
DraftKings
Noah Fant
Receiving Yards
16.5market 51% over
we project18.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Noah Fant
Receptions
1.5market 59% over
over
-169
DraftKings
under
+132
FanDuel
Olamide Zaccheaus
Receiving Yards
8.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Olamide Zaccheaus
Receptions
1.5market 42% over2.1pp between books — shop it
over
+136
FanDuel
under
-161
DraftKings
Oscar Delp
Receiving Yards
8.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Oscar Delp
Receptions
0.5market 59% over10.4pp between books — shop it
over
-172
DraftKings
under
+200
FanDuel
Samson Ebukam
Sacks
0.5
over
+300
FanDuel
under
—
Tyler Shough
Carries
4.5market 43% over
we project3.2/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-156
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Completions
27.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Interceptions
0.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Pass Attempts
42.5market 51% over
we project41.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Passing TDs
1.5market 64% over11.5pp between books — shop it
over
-135
FanDuel
under
+160
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Passing Yards
258.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Rushing Yards
15.5market 51% over
we project14.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Tyree Wilson
Sacks
0.5
over
+400
FanDuel
under
—
Za'Darius Smith
Sacks
0.5
over
+162
FanDuel
under
—
Zachariah Branch
Receiving Yards
9.5market 45% over
over
+110
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Zachariah Branch
Receptions
0.5market 59% over
over
-166
FanDuel
under
+131
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
66.8%
9.3
Yards / att
6.3
163.3
Air yards / gm
326.2
0.343
EPA / dropback
-0.023
+1.8
CPOE
completion % over expected
+1.8
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 30.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 3250.5 yards in 1 of 3275.5 yards in 0 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs ATL
Tyler Shough
NO · 5 games, 205 attempts
56
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
2nd of 34
41.0 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 6.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
22nd of 34
6.3 yards per attempt · 66.8% completions · -0.023 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
27th of 32
ATL has allowed 6.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 244 yards39 attempts × 6.3 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 25.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 4 of 5250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
-3.5 to -2.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 8 PM ET — back through 3.
Crossed 3
-1.5 to +5.5 on Mon, Oct 5, 9 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 3 days, then left it on Fri, Oct 2, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Drake London28.1% target share · 17.7 PPR last 4
Jahan Dotson13.3% target share · 6.5 PPR last 4
Zachariah Branch6.3% target share · 2.9 PPR last 4
Chris Olave27.6% target share · 17.6 PPR last 4
Devaughn Vele18.9% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Bryce Lance8.7% target share · 0.9 PPR last 4
Bijan Robinson65.8% of team carries · 22.5 PPR last 4
Brian Robinson32.9% of team carries · 11.8 PPR last 4
Travis Etienne27.2% of team carries · 10.3 PPR last 3
Kendre Miller25.4% of team carries · 6 PPR last 4
Kyle Pitts11.7% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
Austin Hooper5.5% target share · 5 PPR last 3
Juwan Johnson16.3% target share · 12.8 PPR last 4
Noah Fant6.6% target share · 8.6 PPR last 4