Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
DET
51.9%
CAR
48.1%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
5.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jared Goff · DETQB Index componentsBryce Young · CAR
67 · B+
Index
85 · S
38.2
Attempts / gm
40.5
5.4%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
5.8%
67.0%
Completion
QB Index · vs CAR
Jared Goff
DET · 5 games, 191 attempts
67
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
6th of 34
38.2 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 60% pass · sacked on 5.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
10th of 34
7.8 yards per attempt · 67.0% completions · 0.323 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
22nd of 32
CAR has allowed 6.7 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 281 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 4 prices on record
Open
Opened +3 on Wed, Jul 29, 68 days before kickoff.
Move
3 reprices since, 4.5 points of movement in all. It closed +1.5 — the favourite is 1.5 points smaller than at the open. It ranged from +1.5 to +4.5 along the way, retracing 3 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 9 PM ET.
11% 5+ days out89% Gameday
Biggest move
3 points at once — +4.5 to +1.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 9 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+4.5 to +1.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 9 PM ET — back through 3.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 61 days, then left it on Mon, Sep 28, 8 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record
Open
Opened 49.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 11 days before kickoff.
Move
2 reprices since, 2 points of movement in all. It closed 51.5 — 2 points higher than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Sep 29, 8 PM ET.
50% 5+ days out50% Gameday
Biggest move
1 point at once — 49.5 to 50.5 on Tue, Sep 29, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
The total
Totals of 51.5 went over 31 of 60 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 59
Aidan Hutchinson
Sacks
0.5
over
-205
FanDuel
under
—
AJ Dillon
Rushing Yards
9.5market 50% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Alim McNeill
Sacks
0.5
over
+235
FanDuel
under
—
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Receiving Yards
77.5market 50% over
we project74.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Receptions
6.5market 57% over
over
-148
FanDuel
under
+119
DraftKings
Brock Wright
Receiving Yards
0.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-138
FanDuel
Brock Wright
Receptions
0.5market 47% over11.2pp between books — shop it
over
+100
DraftKings
under
+118
FanDuel
Bryce Young
Carries
3.5market 47% over
we project1.5/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Bryce Young
Completions
24.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Bryce Young
Interceptions
0.5market 44% over
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Bryce Young
Pass Attempts
34.5market 51% over
we project40.5/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Bryce Young
Passing TDs
1.5market 41% over12.1pp between books — shop it
over
+125
DraftKings
under
+100
FanDuel
Bryce Young
Passing Yards
243.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Bryce Young
Rushing Yards
16.5market 50% over
we project4.8/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
Brycen Tremayne
Receiving Yards
21.5market 50% over
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Brycen Tremayne
Receptions
2.5market 52% over
over
-120
FanDuel
under
-104
DraftKings
Chuba Hubbard
Carries
17.5market 50% over
we project15.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Chuba Hubbard
Receiving Yards
19.5market 51% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Chuba Hubbard
Receptions
2.5market 57% over
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+121
DraftKings
Chuba Hubbard
Rushing Yards
65.5market 50% over
we project76.5/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
D.J. Wonnum
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Darren Waller
Receiving Yards
24.5market 51% over
we project37.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Darren Waller
Receptions
2.5market 55% over6.8pp between books — shop it
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+140
FanDuel
Derrick Barnes
Sacks
0.5
over
+290
FanDuel
under
—
Derrick Brown
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Devin Lloyd
Sacks
0.5
over
+550
FanDuel
under
—
Isaac TeSlaa
Receiving Yards
12.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it
we project37.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Isaac TeSlaa
Receptions
1.5market 37% over10.3pp between books — shop it
over
+155
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
Jack Campbell
Sacks
0.5
over
+370
FanDuel
under
—
Jaelan Phillips
Sacks
0.5
over
+120
FanDuel
under
—
Jahmyr Gibbs
Carries
18.5market 49% over
we project21.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Jahmyr Gibbs
Receiving Yards
35.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jahmyr Gibbs
Receptions
4.5market 52% over
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Jahmyr Gibbs
Rushing Yards
95.5market 50% over
we project100.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jake Bates
Kicking Points
8.5market 46% over
over
+104
DraftKings
under
-133
DraftKings
Jalen Coker
Receiving Yards
48.5market 50% over
we project74.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Jalen Coker
Receptions
4.5market 46% over
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-132
DraftKings
Jameson Williams
Receiving Yards
51.5market 50% over
we project55.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Jameson Williams
Receptions
3.5market 52% over3.6pp between books — shop it
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-105
DraftKings
Jared Goff
Completions
24.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Jared Goff
Interceptions
0.5market 37% over
over
+150
DraftKings
under
-208
DraftKings
Jared Goff
Pass Attempts
37.5market 50% over
we project38.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Jared Goff
Passing TDs
1.5market 52% over12.2pp between books — shop it
over
-125
DraftKings
under
+158
FanDuel
Jared Goff
Passing Yards
257.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Jared Goff
Rushing Yards
0.5market 44% over
we project3.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-138
FanDuel
John Metchie III
Receiving Yards
14.5market 50% over
we project18.7/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
John Metchie III
Receptions
1.5market 50% over13.5pp between books — shop it
over
-116
DraftKings
under
+152
FanDuel
Mitchell Evans
Receiving Yards
4.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Mitchell Evans
Receptions
1.5market 36% over
over
+162
DraftKings
under
-208
DraftKings
Princely Umanmielen
Sacks
0.5
over
+250
FanDuel
under
—
Ryan Fitzgerald
Kicking Points
6.5market 54% over
over
-133
DraftKings
under
+104
DraftKings
Sam LaPorta
Receiving Yards
48.5market 50% over
we project63.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Sam LaPorta
Receptions
4.5market 44% over1.6pp between books — shop it
over
+113
DraftKings
under
-140
FanDuel
Sione Vaki
Rushing Yards
11.5market 51% over
we project10.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Tetairoa McMillan
Receiving Yards
71.5market 50% over
we project96.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Tetairoa McMillan
Receptions
4.5market 57% over3.1pp between books — shop it
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+132
FanDuel
Tommy Tremble
Receiving Yards
13.5market 51% over
we project20.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Tommy Tremble
Receptions
1.5market 58% over
over
-161
DraftKings
under
+126
DraftKings
Tyleik Williams
Sacks
0.5
over
+630
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
62.3%
7.8
Yards / att
7.8
302.4
Air yards / gm
364.8
0.323
EPA / dropback
0.240
+1.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
+6.1
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 26.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs DET
Bryce Young
CAR · 4 games, 162 attempts
85
index
S
Volumeweight 0.40
3rd of 34
40.5 attempts per game · team runs 65 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 5.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
6th of 34
7.8 yards per attempt · 62.3% completions · 0.240 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
9th of 32
DET has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 300 yards38 attempts × 7.8 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 25.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
300.5 yards in 2 of 4325.5 yards in 2 of 4350.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Amon-Ra St. Brown30.3% target share · 18.9 PPR last 4
Jameson Williams15.4% target share · 12.3 PPR last 4
Isaac TeSlaa10.1% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Tetairoa McMillan26.5% target share · 18.6 PPR last 4
Jalen Coker15.0% target share · 17.4 PPR last 3
John Metchie III6.8% target share · 5.5 PPR last 3
Jahmyr Gibbs82.0% of team carries · 30 PPR last 4
Sione Vaki11.7% of team carries · 2.9 PPR last 4
Chuba Hubbard70.5% of team carries · 19.8 PPR last 4
AJ Dillon19.3% of team carries · 1.7 PPR last 4
Sam LaPorta19.7% target share · 16.7 PPR last 4
Brock Wright3.2% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4
Darren Waller12.9% target share · 10 PPR last 4
Tommy Tremble10.2% target share · 4.8 PPR last 4
