Los Angeles ChargersatSeattle Seahawks

Final · Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30

Opened

-3

First seen Jul 29

Closed

-12.5

-9.5 since open

Total

52.5

Prices archived

154

18 spread · 15 total

Crossed 7 & 10 since opening

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

LAC

2.4%

SEA

97.6%

We hold too few games at this price to say what it has been worth historically, so we don't.

2.3%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 102.3%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.

Head to head

Justin Herbert · LACQB Index componentsSam Darnold · SEA

18 · F

Index

40 · D

28.6

Attempts / gm

29.8

10.6%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

8.6%

59.4%

Completion

QB Index · vs SEA

Justin Herbert

LAC · 5 games, 143 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

24th of 34

28.6 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 49% pass · sacked on 10.6% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

28th of 34

6.6 yards per attempt · 59.4% completions · -0.193 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

32nd of 32

SEA has allowed 5.3 yards per attempt across 6 games

≈ 169 yards

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record

Open

Opened -3 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.

Move

5 reprices since, 19.5 points of movement in all. It closed -12.5 — the favourite is 9.5 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -17.5 to -3 along the way, retracing 10 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 6 PM ET.

21% 5+ days out79% Gameday

Biggest move

7 points at once — -10.5 to -17.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 6 PM ET.

Crossed 10

-7 to -10.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 5 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.

Held 3

It sat on 3 for 57 days, then left it on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record

Open

Opened 45.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.

Move

6 reprices since, 15 points of movement in all. It closed 52.5 — 7 points higher than the open. It ranged from 42.5 to 52.5 along the way, retracing 8 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 6 PM ET.

33% 5+ days out67% Gameday

Biggest move

6 points at once — 46.5 to 52.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 7 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 12.5 covered 30 of 46 games.

The range clears a coin flip.

They won outright in 42 of 46.

The total

Totals of 52.5 went over 22 of 46 times.

The range covers a coin flip.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

Player props · 67

A.J. Barner

Receiving Yards

12.5

we project24.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+340

DraftKings

under

—

A.J. Barner

Receptions

1.5market 39% over

over

+330

DraftKings

under

+175

DraftKings

AJ Barner

Receiving Yards

12.5market 31% over

we project24.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+198

FanDuel

under

-275

FanDuel

AJ Barner

Receptions

3.5market 42% over

over

+124

FanDuel

under

-166

FanDuel

Akheem Mesidor

Sacks

0.5

over

+188

FanDuel

under

—

Byron Murphy II

Sacks

0.5

over

+225

FanDuel

under

—

Cameron Dicker

Kicking Points

5.5market 55% over

over

-139

DraftKings

under

+108

DraftKings

Cooper Kupp

Receiving Yards

16.5market 51% over

we project25.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-118

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Cooper Kupp

Receptions

2.5market 5% over45.1pp between books — shop it

over

+2800

DraftKings

under

-140

FanDuel

DeMarcus Lawrence

Sacks

0.5

over

+140

FanDuel

under

—

Derick Hall

Sacks

0.5

over

+225

FanDuel

under

—

Elijah Arroyo

Receiving Yards

0.5

over

+600

DraftKings

under

—

Elijah Arroyo

Receptions

0.5

over

+550

DraftKings

under

—

Emanuel Wilson

Carries

17.5market 51% over

we project14.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-120

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Emanuel Wilson

Receiving Yards

39.5

over

+650

DraftKings

under

—

Emanuel Wilson

Receptions

3.5market 17% over

over

+600

DraftKings

under

-250

DraftKings

Emanuel Wilson

Rushing Yards

72.5market 51% over

we project50.2/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

George Holani

Carries

8.5market 50% over

we project5.2/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-120

DraftKings

George Holani

Receiving Yards

2.5market 18% over27.7pp between books — shop it

over

+600

DraftKings

under

-182

DraftKings

George Holani

Receptions

1.5market 20% over40.2pp between books — shop it

over

+550

DraftKings

under

-106

FanDuel

George Holani

Rushing Yards

40.5market 50% over

we project15.4/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-112

FanDuel

Jadarian Price

Receiving Yards

10.5market 50% over

over

-114

DraftKings

under

-116

DraftKings

Jadarian Price

Receptions

1.5market 51% over1.9pp between books — shop it

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-109

DraftKings

Jadarian Price

Rushing Yards

39.5market 53% over4.9pp between books — shop it

we project39.7/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Jarran Reed

Sacks

0.5

over

+360

FanDuel

under

—

Jason Myers

Kicking Points

8.5market 46% over

over

+104

DraftKings

under

-133

DraftKings

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receiving Yards

76.5market 35% over9.2pp between books — shop it

we project116.6/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+168

FanDuel

under

-230

FanDuel

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receptions

6.5market 19% over46.3pp between books — shop it

over

+650

DraftKings

under

+112

FanDuel

Justin Herbert

Carries

4.5market 39% over

we project4.8/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

+140

DraftKings

under

-192

DraftKings

Justin Herbert

Completions

18.5market 49% over

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-120

DraftKings

Justin Herbert

Interceptions

1.5market 51% over

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Justin Herbert

Pass Attempts

33.5market 50% over

we project28.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-120

DraftKings

under

-116

DraftKings

Justin Herbert

Passing TDs

0.5market 63% over3.8pp between books — shop it

over

-213

DraftKings

under

+188

FanDuel

Justin Herbert

Passing Yards

199.5market 15% over44.0pp between books — shop it

over

+1000

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Justin Herbert

Rushing Yards

20.5market 50% over

we project28.4/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Keaton Mitchell

Carries

4.5

we project6.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-182

DraftKings

under

—

Keaton Mitchell

Receiving Yards

27.5market 43% over

over

+120

DraftKings

under

-158

FanDuel

Keaton Mitchell

Receptions

1.5market 65% over16.7pp between books — shop it

over

-114

FanDuel

under

+170

DraftKings

Keaton Mitchell

Rushing Yards

12.5market 49% over

we project27.0/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Khalil Mack

Sacks

0.5

over

+140

FanDuel

under

—

Ladd McConkey

Receiving Yards

47.5market 50% over

we project45.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Ladd McConkey

Receptions

3.5market 45% over14.5pp between books — shop it

over

+105

DraftKings

under

+128

FanDuel

Leonard Williams

Sacks

0.5

over

-120

FanDuel

under

—

Omarion Hampton

Carries

7.5market 58% over

we project14.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-161

DraftKings

under

+120

DraftKings

Omarion Hampton

Receiving Yards

8.5market 51% over24.7pp between books — shop it

over

+240

DraftKings

under

-112

FanDuel

Omarion Hampton

Receptions

2.5

over

+220

DraftKings

under

—

Omarion Hampton

Rushing Yards

37.5market 51% over2.3pp between books — shop it

we project54.2/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Oronde Gadsden

Receiving Yards

27.5market 47% over

we project17.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-102

FanDuel

under

-130

FanDuel

Oronde Gadsden

Receptions

2.5market 56% over

over

-148

FanDuel

under

+112

FanDuel

Oronde Gadsden II

Receiving Yards

27.5market 46% over

we project17.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+120

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Oronde Gadsden II

Receptions

4.5

over

+110

DraftKings

under

—

Quentin Johnston

Receiving Yards

0.5market 47% over2.9pp between books — shop it

we project27.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+110

DraftKings

under

-130

FanDuel

Quentin Johnston

Receptions

2.5market 11% over56.9pp between books — shop it

over

+1300

DraftKings

under

+132

FanDuel

Rashid Shaheed

Receiving Yards

24.5market 50% over

we project19.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Rashid Shaheed

Receptions

2.5market 40% over1.7pp between books — shop it

over

+133

DraftKings

under

-166

FanDuel

Sam Darnold

Completions

19.5market 50% over

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-120

DraftKings

Sam Darnold

Interceptions

1.5market 38% over

over

+145

DraftKings

under

-196

DraftKings

Sam Darnold

Pass Attempts

28.5market 51% over

we project24.5/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-120

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Sam Darnold

Passing TDs

1.5market 54% over

over

-128

FanDuel

under

+106

DraftKings

Sam Darnold

Passing Yards

233.5market 50% over

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Sam Darnold

Rushing Yards

2.5market 49% over1.6pp between books — shop it

we project4.0/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-104

FanDuel

under

-120

DraftKings

Tory Horton

Receiving Yards

0.5market 33% over1.7pp between books — shop it

over

+194

FanDuel

under

-250

DraftKings

Tory Horton

Receptions

1.5market 15% over27.8pp between books — shop it

over

+700

DraftKings

under

-200

FanDuel

Tre Harris

Receiving Yards

32.5market 50% over

we project45.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Tre Harris

Receptions

2.5market 52% over15.2pp between books — shop it

over

+105

DraftKings

under

+132

FanDuel

Tuli Tuipulotu

Sacks

0.5

over

+106

FanDuel

under

—

Uchenna Nwosu

Sacks

0.5

over

+142

FanDuel

under

—

Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.