Kansas City ChiefsatLas Vegas Raiders

Final · Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27

Opened

+5.5

First seen Jul 29

Closed

+4.5

-1 since open

Total

43.5

Prices archived

135

19 spread · 16 total

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

75.5%

24.5%

Teams the market priced at 75–80% won 434 of 552 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 1.2 points.

6.0%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 106.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.

Head to head

Patrick Mahomes · KCQB Index componentsKirk Cousins · LV

67 · B+

Index

53 · B

32.0

Attempts / gm

34.4

4.5%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

4.4%

64.1%

Completion

QB Index · vs LV

Patrick Mahomes

KC · 4 games, 128 attempts

index

B+

Volumeweight 0.40

15th of 34

32.0 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

13th of 34

8.1 yards per attempt · 64.1% completions · 0.192 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

5th of 32

LV has allowed 7.9 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 248 yards

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record

Open

Opened +5.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.

Move

5 reprices since, 4 points of movement in all. It closed +4.5 — the favourite is 1 point smaller than at the open. It ranged from +3.5 to +6 along the way, retracing 3 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Mon, Sep 28, 8 PM ET.

50% 5+ days out50% Gameday

Biggest move

1 point at once — +5.5 to +4.5 on Mon, Sep 28, 8 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record

Open

Opened 43.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.

Move

6 reprices since, 10 points of movement in all. It ended up exactly where it started. It ranged from 42.5 to 47.5 along the way, retracing 10 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 5 PM ET.

40% 5+ days out60% Gameday

Biggest move

4 points at once — 46.5 to 42.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 6 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 4.5 covered 127 of 254 games.

The range covers a coin flip.

They won outright in 169 of 254.

The total

Totals of 43.5 went over 162 of 326 times.

The range covers a coin flip.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

Player props · 59

Ashton Jeanty

Carries

13.5market 53% over

we project17.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-135

DraftKings

under

+100

DraftKings

Ashton Jeanty

Receiving Yards

19.5market 50% over

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Ashton Jeanty

Receptions

3.5market 43% over

over

+122

DraftKings

under

-156

DraftKings

Ashton Jeanty

Rushing Yards

59.5market 50% over

we project58.2/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Brock Bowers

Receiving Yards

51.5market 50% over

we project104.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Brock Bowers

Receptions

6.5market 54% over2.5pp between books — shop it

over

-122

FanDuel

under

+105

DraftKings

Chris Jones

Sacks

0.5

over

+240

FanDuel

under

—

Cody White

Receiving Yards

0.5market 47% over11.2pp between books — shop it

we project21.6/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+158

FanDuel

under

-135

DraftKings

Cody White

Receptions

1.5market 21% over22.9pp between books — shop it

over

+475

DraftKings

under

-192

DraftKings

Drue Tranquill

Sacks

0.5

over

+410

FanDuel

under

—

Emmett Johnson

Receiving Yards

6.5market 51% over

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-105

DraftKings

Emmett Johnson

Receptions

1.5market 37% over

over

+154

FanDuel

under

-196

DraftKings

Emmett Johnson

Rushing Yards

8.5market 50% over

we project14.0/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-118

FanDuel

Felix Anudike-Uzomah

Sacks

0.5

over

+360

FanDuel

under

—

George Karlaftis

Sacks

0.5

over

+174

FanDuel

under

—

Harrison Butker

Kicking Points

7.5market 54% over

over

-135

DraftKings

under

+106

DraftKings

Jalen Nailor

Receiving Yards

19.5market 49% over

we project17.3/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-109

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Jalen Nailor

Receptions

1.5market 45% over14.5pp between books — shop it

over

+105

DraftKings

under

+128

FanDuel

Kenneth Walker III

Carries

21.5market 47% over

we project21.8/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-132

DraftKings

Kenneth Walker III

Receiving Yards

22.5market 50% over

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Kenneth Walker III

Receptions

2.5market 61% over5.1pp between books — shop it

over

-154

FanDuel

under

+140

DraftKings

Kenneth Walker III

Rushing Yards

86.5market 50% over

we project134.3/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Kirk Cousins

Completions

20.5market 50% over

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-120

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins

Interceptions

0.5market 50% over

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-116

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins

Pass Attempts

31.5market 47% over

we project34.4/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-132

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins

Passing TDs

1.5market 63% over22.5pp between books — shop it

over

+122

FanDuel

under

+150

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins

Passing Yards

225.5market 50% over

over

-114

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins

Rushing Yards

0.5market 42% over7.3pp between books — shop it

we project-0.4/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

+162

FanDuel

under

-167

DraftKings

Kwity Paye

Sacks

0.5

over

+178

FanDuel

under

—

Malcolm Koonce

Sacks

0.5

over

+210

FanDuel

under

—

Matt Gay

Kicking Points

6.5market 52% over

over

-123

DraftKings

under

-104

DraftKings

Maxx Crosby

Sacks

0.5

over

+124

FanDuel

under

—

Michael Mayer

Receiving Yards

23.5market 50% over

we project34.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Michael Mayer

Receptions

2.5market 52% over6.1pp between books — shop it

over

-123

DraftKings

under

+118

FanDuel

Mike Washington Jr.

Carries

4.5market 41% over

we project5.0/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

+125

DraftKings

under

-172

DraftKings

Mike Washington Jr.

Rushing Yards

16.5market 50% over1.8pp between books — shop it

we project25.0/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-104

FanDuel

under

-112

DraftKings

Nakobe Dean

Sacks

0.5

over

+550

FanDuel

under

—

Nick Bolton

Sacks

0.5

over

+490

FanDuel

under

—

Noah Gray

Receiving Yards

17.5market 50% over

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-110

FanDuel

Noah Gray

Receptions

1.5market 63% over28.7pp between books — shop it

over

+154

FanDuel

under

+155

DraftKings

Patrick Mahomes

Completions

21.5market 48% over

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-125

DraftKings

Patrick Mahomes

Interceptions

0.5market 34% over

over

+170

DraftKings

under

-238

DraftKings

Patrick Mahomes

Pass Attempts

34.5market 53% over

we project32.0/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-132

DraftKings

under

-105

DraftKings

Patrick Mahomes

Passing TDs

1.5market 56% over

over

-144

FanDuel

under

+113

DraftKings

Patrick Mahomes

Passing Yards

239.5market 50% over

over

-114

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Patrick Mahomes

Rushing Yards

15.5market 49% over

we project10.3/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-110

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Peter Woods

Sacks

0.5

over

+630

FanDuel

under

—

Quay Walker

Sacks

0.5

over

+490

FanDuel

under

—

R Mason Thomas

Sacks

0.5

over

+310

FanDuel

under

—

Rashee Rice

Receiving Yards

56.5market 50% over

we project63.3/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Rashee Rice

Receptions

4.5market 56% over

over

-145

DraftKings

under

+113

DraftKings

Travis Kelce

Receiving Yards

47.5market 50% over

we project61.5/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-115

DraftKings

Travis Kelce

Receptions

4.5market 50% over6.0pp between books — shop it

over

+106

FanDuel

under

-116

DraftKings

Tre Tucker

Receiving Yards

38.5market 50% over

we project54.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Tre Tucker

Receptions

3.5market 40% over3.0pp between books — shop it

over

+133

DraftKings

under

-158

FanDuel

Tyquan Thornton

Receiving Yards

20.5market 51% over

we project54.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-110

DraftKings

Tyquan Thornton

Receptions

1.5market 49% over1.7pp between books — shop it

over

-102

FanDuel

under

-119

DraftKings

Xavier Worthy

Receiving Yards

33.5market 50% over

we project33.3/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Xavier Worthy

Receptions

3.5market 42% over1.5pp between books — shop it

over

+134

FanDuel

under

-164

DraftKings

Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.