Final · Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
Opened
+1.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
+2.5
+1 since open
Total
31.5
Prices archived
209
34 spread · 27 total
0.5 points short of 34 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
TB+6.5FanDuel
GB-2.5DraftKings
Over31.5DraftKings
Under37.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
GB
92.9%
TB
7.1%
Teams the market priced at 90–95% won 44 of 46 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 4.2 points.
5.5%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.5%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jordan Love · GBQB Index componentsBaker Mayfield · TB
62 · B+
Index
37 · D
37.0
Attempts / gm
32.0
5.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
11.9%
60.5%
Completion
QB Index · vs TB
Jordan Love
GB · 5 games, 185 attempts
62
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
9th of 34
37.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 65% pass · sacked on 5.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
17th of 34
7.6 yards per attempt · 60.5% completions · 0.110 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
16th of 32
TB has allowed 7.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 267 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 11 prices on record
Open
Opened +1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.
Move
10 reprices since, 22 points of movement in all. It closed +2.5 — the favourite is 1 point bigger than at the open. It ranged from -1.5 to +6.5 along the way, retracing 21 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 1 PM ET.
41% 5+ days out5% 5–2 days out2% Final two days52% Gameday
Biggest move
5 points at once — -1.5 to +3.5 on Mon, Sep 28, 2 AM ET.
Crossed 3
-1.5 to +3.5 on Mon, Sep 28, 2 AM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 3
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 11 prices on record
Open
Opened 47.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.
Move
10 reprices since, 22 points of movement in all. It closed 31.5 — 16 points lower than the open. It ranged from 31.5 to 47.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 30, 8 PM ET.
45% 5+ days out5% 5–2 days out9% Final two days41% Gameday
Biggest move
7 points at once — 46.5 to 39.5 on Mon, Sep 28, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
The total
Totals of 31.5 went over 0 of 2 times.
Only 2 games at this number — too few to read.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 50
Bucky Irving
Carries
13.5market 47% over
we project15.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Bucky Irving
Receiving Yards
2.5market 49% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Bucky Irving
Receptions
2.5market 53% over2.9pp between books — shop it
over
-114
FanDuel
under
+100
DraftKings
Bucky Irving
Rushing Yards
56.5market 50% over
we project81.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Cade Otton
Receiving Yards
25.5market 50% over
we project36.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Cade Otton
Receptions
2.5market 65% over7.9pp between books — shop it
over
-160
FanDuel
under
+165
DraftKings
Chase McLaughlin
Kicking Points
6.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-123
DraftKings
Chris Godwin
Receiving Yards
14.5market 50% over
we project35.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Chris Godwin
Receptions
2.5market 54% over4.2pp between books — shop it
over
-114
FanDuel
under
+105
DraftKings
Christian Watson
Receiving Yards
67.5market 50% over
we project94.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Christian Watson
Receptions
4.5market 8% over56.8pp between books — shop it
over
+2500
DraftKings
under
+116
FanDuel
Emeka Egbuka
Receiving Yards
21.5market 50% over
we project38.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Emeka Egbuka
Receptions
3.5market 46% over
over
+108
FanDuel
under
-137
DraftKings
Jalon Daniels
Carries
8.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Jalon Daniels
Completions
15.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Jalon Daniels
Interceptions
1.5market 41% over
over
+125
DraftKings
under
-172
DraftKings
Jalon Daniels
Pass Attempts
23.5market 53% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Jalon Daniels
Passing TDs
0.5market 47% over16.2pp between books — shop it
over
+100
DraftKings
under
+148
FanDuel
Jalon Daniels
Passing Yards
146.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jalon Daniels
Rushing Yards
34.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jonnu Smith
Receiving Yards
0.5market 31% over5.8pp between books — shop it
over
+260
DraftKings
under
-275
FanDuel
Jonnu Smith
Receptions
1.5market 9% over32.1pp between books — shop it
over
+1400
DraftKings
under
-208
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Completions
20.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Interceptions
0.5market 41% over
over
+125
DraftKings
under
-172
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Pass Attempts
32.5market 52% over
we project37.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Passing TDs
1.5market 62% over22.0pp between books — shop it
over
+126
FanDuel
under
+145
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Passing Yards
238.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Rushing Yards
3.5market 64% over3.7pp between books — shop it
we project-0.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-188
FanDuel
under
+160
DraftKings
Kaleb Johnson
Carries
7.5
we project5.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
—
Kaleb Johnson
Rushing Yards
30.5market 50% over
we project21.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Kenneth Gainwell
Receiving Yards
12.5market 49% over
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-122
FanDuel
Kenneth Gainwell
Receptions
2.5market 39% over
over
+144
FanDuel
under
-182
DraftKings
Kenneth Gainwell
Rushing Yards
11.5market 50% over
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
MarShawn Lloyd
Carries
8.5market 47% over
we project8.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+101
DraftKings
under
-130
DraftKings
MarShawn Lloyd
Receiving Yards
5.5market 50% over
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
MarShawn Lloyd
Receptions
1.5market 56% over19.3pp between books — shop it
over
+144
FanDuel
under
+110
DraftKings
MarShawn Lloyd
Rushing Yards
19.5market 20% over40.8pp between books — shop it
we project22.4/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+650
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Matthew Golden
Receiving Yards
59.5market 50% over50.5pp between books — shop it
we project79.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+3500
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Matthew Golden
Receptions
4.5market 8% over48.9pp between books — shop it
over
+2200
DraftKings
under
+101
DraftKings
Skyy Moore
Receiving Yards
0.5market 32% over5.3pp between books — shop it
we project7.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+240
DraftKings
under
-260
FanDuel
Skyy Moore
Receptions
1.5market 12% over46.1pp between books — shop it
over
+1300
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Ted Hurst
Receiving Yards
25.5market 44% over
we project32.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-152
DraftKings
Ted Hurst
Receptions
2.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Ted Hurst III
Receiving Yards
25.5market 50% over
we project32.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Ted Hurst III
Receptions
1.5market 60% over
over
-180
FanDuel
under
+134
FanDuel
Tez Johnson
Receiving Yards
9.5market 50% over
we project27.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Tez Johnson
Receptions
1.5market 55% over21.7pp between books — shop it
over
+172
FanDuel
under
+105
DraftKings
Trey Smack
Kicking Points
7.5market 46% over
over
+103
DraftKings
under
-133
DraftKings
Tucker Kraft
Receiving Yards
42.5market 17% over22.9pp between books — shop it
we project42.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+800
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Tucker Kraft
Receptions
3.5market 58% over
over
-158
FanDuel
under
+123
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
63.5%
7.6
Yards / att
6.4
322.2
Air yards / gm
284.0
0.110
EPA / dropback
-0.274
-2.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
+1.1
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 17.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 3 of 5325.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs GB
Baker Mayfield
TB · 3 games, 96 attempts
37
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
15th of 34
32.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 11.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
6.4 yards per attempt · 63.5% completions · -0.274 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
25th of 32
GB has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 170 yards27 attempts × 6.4 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 14.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 2 of 3225.5 yards in 0 of 3250.5 yards in 0 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
+3.5 to +2.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET — back through 3.
Crossed 3
+2.5 to +6.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 3 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
4 key-number crossings in all.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 41 hours, then left it on Sun, Oct 4, 1 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Matthew Golden24.7% target share · 15.7 PPR last 4
Christian Watson22.0% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Skyy Moore7.7% target share · 2.6 PPR last 4
Emeka Egbuka22.6% target share · 10.5 PPR last 4
Chris Godwin Jr.14.4% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Ted Hurst III11.0% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
MarShawn Lloyd44.4% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Kaleb Johnson30.0% of team carries · 2.6 PPR last 4
Chris Brooks16.7% of team carries · 3.1 PPR last 4
Bucky Irving57.9% of team carries · 14.6 PPR last 4
Tucker Kraft15.9% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4
Jonnu Smith3.8% target share · 4.5 PPR last 3
Cade Otton18.5% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
