Final · Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20
Opened
+1.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-2.5
-4 since open
Total
42.5
Prices archived
217
30 spread · 34 total
0.5 points short of 3
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
LAR
40.6%
PHI
59.4%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
6.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.
Head to head
Matthew Stafford · LAQB Index componentsJalen Hurts · PHI
70 · B+
Index
27 · F
43.2
Attempts / gm
30.8
3.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.8%
64.4%
Completion
QB Index · vs PHI
Matthew Stafford
LA · 5 games, 216 attempts
70
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
1st of 34
43.2 attempts per game · team runs 69 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 3.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
17th of 34
7.3 yards per attempt · 64.4% completions · 0.143 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
18th of 32
PHI has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 309 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 10 prices on record
Open
Opened +1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.
Move
9 reprices since, 18 points of movement in all. It closed -2.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -6.5 to +3.5 along the way, retracing 14 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.
17% 5+ days out5% 5–2 days out78% Gameday
Biggest move
6 points at once — +2.5 to -3.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+3.5 to +2.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 1 PM ET — back through 3.
Crossed 3
+2.5 to -3.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 12 prices on record
Open
Opened 47.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.
Move
11 reprices since, 31 points of movement in all. It closed 42.5 — 5 points lower than the open. It ranged from 35.5 to 47.5 along the way, retracing 26 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.
16% 5+ days out7% 5–2 days out77% Gameday
Biggest move
8 points at once — 43.5 to 35.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
The total
Totals of 42.5 went over 116 of 221 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 58
Blake Corum
Carries
6.5market 41% over
we project7.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+125
DraftKings
under
-172
DraftKings
Blake Corum
Rushing Yards
18.5market 50% over
we project36.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Braden Fiske
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Byron Young
Sacks
0.5
over
-146
FanDuel
under
—
Darius Cooper
Receiving Yards
33.5market 19% over19.7pp between books — shop it
we project26.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+600
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Darius Cooper
Receptions
1.5market 61% over
over
-192
DraftKings
under
+148
FanDuel
Davante Adams
Receiving Yards
32.5market 44% over5.4pp between books — shop it
we project88.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-148
FanDuel
Davante Adams
Receptions
4.5market 48% over7.9pp between books — shop it
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-136
FanDuel
DeVonta Smith
Receiving Yards
68.5market 50% over
we project78.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
DeVonta Smith
Receptions
5.5market 54% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+103
DraftKings
Dontayvion Wicks
Receiving Yards
46.5market 50% over
we project52.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Dontayvion Wicks
Receptions
3.5market 34% over34.0pp between books — shop it
over
+290
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Harrison Mevis
Kicking Points
7.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-128
DraftKings
Jake Elliott
Kicking Points
6.5market 45% over
over
+109
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Jalen Carter
Sacks
0.5
over
+265
FanDuel
under
—
Jalen Hurts
Carries
5.5market 44% over
we project4.6/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-152
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Completions
15.5market 56% over
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Interceptions
0.5market 25% over
over
+270
DraftKings
under
-385
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Pass Attempts
29.5market 51% over
we project30.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Passing TDs
1.5market 37% over3.2pp between books — shop it
over
+178
FanDuel
under
-213
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Passing Yards
93.5market 51% over5.8pp between books — shop it
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Jalen Hurts
Rushing Yards
17.5market 50% over20.3pp between books — shop it
we project21.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jalyx Hunt
Sacks
0.5
over
+300
FanDuel
under
—
Johnny Mundt
Receiving Yards
7.5market 50% over
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Johnny Mundt
Receptions
1.5market 37% over
over
+162
FanDuel
under
-204
DraftKings
Jonathan Greenard
Sacks
0.5
over
+240
FanDuel
under
—
Jordan Davis
Sacks
0.5
over
+630
FanDuel
under
—
Jordan Whittington
Receiving Yards
4.5
over
+300
DraftKings
under
—
Jordan Whittington
Receptions
1.5
over
+245
DraftKings
under
—
Josaiah Stewart
Sacks
0.5
over
+250
FanDuel
under
—
Kobie Turner
Sacks
0.5
over
+134
FanDuel
under
—
Kyren Williams
Carries
11.5market 49% over
we project14.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Kyren Williams
Receiving Yards
39.5market 50% over
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Kyren Williams
Receptions
2.5market 43% over
over
+122
DraftKings
under
-156
DraftKings
Kyren Williams
Rushing Yards
57.5market 49% over
we project68.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Makai Lemon
Receiving Yards
49.5market 50% over44.9pp between books — shop it
we project21.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Makai Lemon
Receptions
3.5market 38% over28.6pp between books — shop it
over
+320
DraftKings
under
+155
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Completions
30.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Interceptions
2.5market 37% over
over
+155
DraftKings
under
-213
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Pass Attempts
48.5market 50% over
we project43.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Passing TDs
1.5market 40% over11.6pp between books — shop it
over
+135
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Matthew Stafford
Passing Yards
239.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Matthew Stafford
Rushing Yards
0.5market 40% over9.0pp between books — shop it
we project4.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+198
FanDuel
under
-185
DraftKings
Moro Ojomo
Sacks
0.5
over
+410
FanDuel
under
—
Nate Landman
Sacks
0.5
over
+430
FanDuel
under
—
Nolan Smith Jr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Poona Ford
Sacks
0.5
over
+470
FanDuel
under
—
Puka Nacua
Receiving Yards
84.5market 50% over
we project112.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Puka Nacua
Receptions
6.5market 45% over6.2pp between books — shop it
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-106
FanDuel
Saquon Barkley
Carries
16.5market 52% over
we project9.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-104
DraftKings
Saquon Barkley
Receiving Yards
15.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Saquon Barkley
Receptions
2.5market 43% over
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-156
DraftKings
Saquon Barkley
Rushing Yards
68.5market 50% over
we project45.5/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Tank Bigsby
Rushing Yards
35.5market 50% over
we project22.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Tyler Higbee
Receiving Yards
54.5market 37% over2.3pp between books — shop it
we project56.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+154
FanDuel
under
-210
FanDuel
Tyler Higbee
Receptions
3.5market 45% over1.6pp between books — shop it
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Zach Ertz
Receiving Yards
15.5market 50% over
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Zach Ertz
Receptions
2.5market 26% over31.9pp between books — shop it
over
+500
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
57.8%
7.3
Yards / att
6.1
374.2
Air yards / gm
231.8
0.143
EPA / dropback
-0.058
+0.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.5
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 20.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
300.5 yards in 4 of 5325.5 yards in 3 of 5350.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs LA
Jalen Hurts
PHI · 5 games, 154 attempts
27
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
18th of 34
30.8 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 7.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
27th of 34
6.1 yards per attempt · 57.8% completions · -0.058 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
31st of 32
LA has allowed 5.7 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 173 yards29 attempts × 6.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Crossed 3
-6.5 to -2.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 4 PM ET — back through 3.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 2 days, then left it on Thu, Oct 1, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Davante Adams21.4% target share · 22.4 PPR last 4
Puka Nacua21.4% target share · 25.9 PPR last 3
Konata Mumpfield6.7% target share · 5.8 PPR last 4
Dontayvion Wicks19.6% target share · 8.4 PPR last 4
DeVonta Smith18.9% target share · 16.2 PPR last 3
Makai Lemon15.4% target share · 5.7 PPR last 4
Kyren Williams57.4% of team carries · 23.5 PPR last 4
Blake Corum31.1% of team carries · 8.3 PPR last 4
Ronnie Rivers4.1% of team carries · 3.4 PPR last 1
Saquon Barkley30.8% of team carries · 5.8 PPR last 4
Tyler Higbee11.9% target share · 11.6 PPR last 4
Terrance Ferguson5.7% target share · 6.4 PPR last 3
Davis Allen4.3% target share · 2.5 PPR last 4
Dallas Goedert11.2% target share · 11.6 PPR last 3
