Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
ARI
29.5%
NYG
70.5%
Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
5.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jacoby Brissett · ARIQB Index componentsJameis Winston · NYG
53 · B
Index
57 · B
39.8
Attempts / gm
33.0
5.7%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.7%
66.3%
QB Index · vs NYG
Jacoby Brissett
ARI · 5 games, 199 attempts
53
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
4th of 34
39.8 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 5.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
25th of 34
5.6 yards per attempt · 66.3% completions · -0.020 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
23rd of 32
NYG has allowed 6.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 210 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 9 prices on record
Open
Opened -7 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.
Move
8 reprices since, 25.5 points of movement in all. It closed -5.5 — the favourite is 1.5 points smaller than at the open. It ranged from -7 to +6.5 along the way, retracing 24 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.
33% 5+ days out4% 5–2 days out63% Gameday
Biggest move
7 points at once — +1.5 to -5.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 4 PM ET.
Crossed 3
-7 to -2.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET — back through 3.
Crossed 3
+2.5 to +5.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 1 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record
Open
Opened 43.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 10 days before kickoff.
Move
5 reprices since, 25 points of movement in all. It closed 54.5 — 11 points higher than the open. It ranged from 43.5 to 61.5 along the way, retracing 14 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 3 PM ET.
100% Gameday
Biggest move
11 points at once — 50.5 to 61.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 3 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 5.5 covered 125 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 178 of 275.
The total
Totals of 54.5 went over 17 of 27 times.
Only 27 games at this number — too few to read.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 47
Cam Skattebo
Receiving Yards
12.5market 49% over
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Cam Skattebo
Receptions
2.5market 53% over
over
-130
FanDuel
under
-102
FanDuel
Cam Skattebo
Rushing Yards
56.5market 49% over
we project58.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Cameron Skattebo
Carries
14.5market 51% over
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Cameron Skattebo
Receiving Yards
8.5
over
+1200
DraftKings
under
—
Cameron Skattebo
Receptions
1.5market 17% over
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
+130
DraftKings
Cameron Skattebo
Rushing Yards
58.5
over
+550
DraftKings
under
—
Chad Ryland
Kicking Points
7.5market 45% over
over
+108
DraftKings
under
-139
DraftKings
Darnell Mooney
Receiving Yards
21.5market 49% over
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Darnell Mooney
Receptions
1.5market 38% over16.1pp between books — shop it
over
+145
DraftKings
under
+100
FanDuel
Dominic Zvada
Kicking Points
6.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Elijah Higgins
Receiving Yards
0.5market 39% over10.3pp between books — shop it
over
+140
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
Elijah Higgins
Receptions
0.5market 41% over17.8pp between books — shop it
over
+130
DraftKings
under
+118
FanDuel
Isaiah Likely
Receiving Yards
36.5market 50% over
we project56.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Isaiah Likely
Receptions
3.5market 59% over
over
-164
DraftKings
under
+127
DraftKings
Jacoby Brissett
Completions
19.5market 56% over
over
-147
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
Jacoby Brissett
Interceptions
2.5market 24% over
over
+290
DraftKings
under
-435
DraftKings
Jacoby Brissett
Pass Attempts
29.5market 53% over
we project39.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Jacoby Brissett
Passing TDs
1.5market 56% over15.3pp between books — shop it
over
+122
FanDuel
under
+110
DraftKings
Jacoby Brissett
Passing Yards
229.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Jacoby Brissett
Rushing Yards
7.5market 50% over
we project12.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Completions
19.5market 44% over
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-152
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Interceptions
2.5market 38% over
over
+145
DraftKings
under
-200
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Pass Attempts
32.5market 47% over
we project33.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Passing TDs
1.5market 37% over
over
+164
FanDuel
under
-204
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Passing Yards
208.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Rushing Yards
2.5market 51% over
we project10.5/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Jeremiyah Love
Carries
17.5market 49% over
we project13.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Jeremiyah Love
Receiving Yards
16.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jeremiyah Love
Receptions
3.5market 41% over
over
+136
FanDuel
under
-169
DraftKings
Jeremiyah Love
Rushing Yards
84.5market 50% over2.2pp between books — shop it
we project49.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Kendrick Bourne
Receiving Yards
0.5market 45% over
we project44.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Kendrick Bourne
Receptions
2.5market 41% over
over
+134
FanDuel
under
-169
DraftKings
Malachi Fields
Receiving Yards
23.5market 50% over
we project29.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Malachi Fields
Receptions
1.5market 42% over17.8pp between books — shop it
over
+120
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Malik Nabers
Receiving Yards
90.5market 50% over
we project65.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Malik Nabers
Receptions
4.5market 56% over3.0pp between books — shop it
over
-130
FanDuel
under
+114
DraftKings
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Receiving Yards
39.5market 50% over47.0pp between books — shop it
we project21.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+1500
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Receptions
2.5market 10% over46.6pp between books — shop it
over
+1400
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Michael Wilson
Receiving Yards
84.5market 50% over
we project57.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Michael Wilson
Receptions
5.5market 52% over10.1pp between books — shop it
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-105
DraftKings
Najee Harris
Rushing Yards
28.5market 50% over
we project24.3/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
Theo Johnson
Receiving Yards
8.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Theo Johnson
Receptions
1.5market 7% over30.5pp between books — shop it
over
+1900
DraftKings
under
-233
DraftKings
Trey McBride
Receiving Yards
38.5market 50% over
we project61.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Trey McBride
Receptions
7.5market 12% over36.3pp between books — shop it
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
-152
DraftKings
Tyler Allgeier
Rushing Yards
21.5market 50% over1.5pp between books — shop it
we project23.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
57.6%
5.6
Yards / att
6.1
284.2
Air yards / gm
317.5
-0.020
EPA / dropback
-0.057
+1.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
-7.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 3 of 5275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 0 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs ARI
Jameis Winston
NYG · 4 games, 132 attempts
57
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
13th of 34
33.0 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 7.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
28th of 34
6.1 yards per attempt · 57.6% completions · -0.057 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
1st of 32
ARI has allowed 9.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 187 yards31 attempts × 6.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 30.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Crossed 3
+4.5 to +1.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 3 PM ET — back through 3.
4 key-number crossings in all.
Held 7
It sat on 7 for 57 days, then left it on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Michael Wilson26.3% target share · 13.4 PPR last 4
Kendrick Bourne11.3% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
Jalen Brooks4.1% target share · 0.9 PPR last 4
Malik Nabers28.0% target share · 15.3 PPR last 4
Darnell Mooney10.4% target share · 3.8 PPR last 4
Malachi Fields10.4% target share · 6.5 PPR last 4
Jeremiyah Love57.8% of team carries · 9.5 PPR last 4
Tyler Allgeier30.2% of team carries · 6.3 PPR last 4
Cam Skattebo57.4% of team carries · 9.3 PPR last 4
Najee Harris19.9% of team carries · 2.8 PPR last 4
Trey McBride28.9% target share · 16.6 PPR last 4
Elijah Higgins4.1% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4
Isaiah Likely29.3% target share · 14.4 PPR last 4
Theo Johnson5.5% target share · 3.9 PPR last 4