Dallas CowboysatHouston Texans

Final · Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30

Opened

-2.5

First seen Jul 29

Closed

-1.5

+1 since open

Total

60.5

Prices archived

166

26 spread · 22 total

3 point gap between books right now

Where the best number is

HOU+1.5FanDuel

DAL+1.5DraftKings

Over60.5DraftKings

Under61.5FanDuel

Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

DAL

50.4%

HOU

49.6%

Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.

6.1%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 106.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.

Head to head

Dak Prescott · DALQB Index componentsC.J. Stroud · HOU

73 · A

Index

77 · A

38.4

Attempts / gm

37.0

3.0%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

7.0%

67.2%

Completion

QB Index · vs HOU

Dak Prescott

DAL · 5 games, 192 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

5th of 34

38.4 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 3.0% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

12th of 34

7.2 yards per attempt · 67.2% completions · 0.229 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

15th of 32

HOU has allowed 7.2 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 268 yards

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 9 prices on record

Open

Opened -2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.

Move

8 reprices since, 12 points of movement in all. It closed -1.5 — the favourite is 1 point smaller than at the open. It ranged from -6.5 to -1.5 along the way, retracing 11 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.

8% 5+ days out4% 5–2 days out88% Gameday

Biggest move

3.5 points at once — -3 to -6.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 1 PM ET.

Crossed 3

-3.5 to -1.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 4 PM ET — back through 3.

Held 3

It sat on 3 for 5 days, then left it on Mon, Sep 28, 2 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record

Open

Opened 47.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.

Move

7 reprices since, 25 points of movement in all. It closed 60.5 — 13 points higher than the open. It ranged from 46.5 to 60.5 along the way, retracing 12 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 3 PM ET.

8% 5+ days out4% 5–2 days out88% Gameday

Biggest move

13 points at once — 47.5 to 60.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 3 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.

The range covers a coin flip.

They won outright in 104 of 194.

No history held for a total of 60.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

390 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

Player props · 58

Brandon Aubrey

Kicking Points

7.5market 47% over

over

+100

DraftKings

under

-128

DraftKings

C.J. Stroud

Carries

3.5market 51% over

we project3.0/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

C.J. Stroud

Completions

19.5market 44% over

over

+110

DraftKings

under

-152

DraftKings

C.J. Stroud

Interceptions

0.5market 23% over

over

+310

DraftKings

under

-455

DraftKings

C.J. Stroud

Pass Attempts

27.5market 54% over

we project37.0/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-141

DraftKings

under

+100

DraftKings

C.J. Stroud

Passing TDs

1.5market 66% over13.5pp between books — shop it

over

-132

FanDuel

under

+175

DraftKings

C.J. Stroud

Passing Yards

299.5market 50% over

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-116

DraftKings

C.J. Stroud

Rushing Yards

14.5market 50% over

we project14.2/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-110

FanDuel

CeeDee Lamb

Receiving Yards

107.5market 50% over

we project101.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

CeeDee Lamb

Receptions

5.5market 56% over2.7pp between books — shop it

over

-130

FanDuel

under

+112

DraftKings

Dak Prescott

Carries

3.5market 36% over

we project2.4/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

+160

DraftKings

under

-217

DraftKings

Dak Prescott

Completions

23.5market 51% over

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Dak Prescott

Interceptions

0.5market 28% over

over

+240

DraftKings

under

-345

DraftKings

Dak Prescott

Pass Attempts

36.5market 53% over

we project38.4/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-132

DraftKings

under

-105

DraftKings

Dak Prescott

Passing TDs

1.5market 34% over19.8pp between books — shop it

over

+175

DraftKings

under

-102

FanDuel

Dak Prescott

Passing Yards

266.5market 50% over

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Dak Prescott

Rushing Yards

11.5market 49% over

we project13.2/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-106

DraftKings

under

-119

DraftKings

Dalton Schultz

Receiving Yards

41.5market 50% over1.5pp between books — shop it

we project48.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-112

FanDuel

Dalton Schultz

Receptions

4.5market 44% over5.9pp between books — shop it

over

+115

DraftKings

under

-120

FanDuel

Danielle Hunter

Sacks

0.5

over

-205

FanDuel

under

—

David Montgomery

Carries

12.5market 53% over

we project10.4/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-132

DraftKings

under

-105

DraftKings

David Montgomery

Receiving Yards

0.5market 38% over3.4pp between books — shop it

over

+145

DraftKings

under

-172

FanDuel

David Montgomery

Receptions

1.5market 54% over

over

-128

FanDuel

under

+103

DraftKings

David Montgomery

Rushing Yards

30.5market 49% over

we project27.6/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Donovan Ezeiruaku

Sacks

0.5

over

+235

FanDuel

under

—

Foster Moreau

Receiving Yards

0.5market 34% over2.4pp between books — shop it

we project13.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+194

FanDuel

under

-244

DraftKings

Foster Moreau

Receptions

1.5market 34% over3.1pp between books — shop it

over

+176

DraftKings

under

-210

FanDuel

George Pickens

Receiving Yards

69.5market 50% over

we project71.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

George Pickens

Receptions

4.5market 59% over3.1pp between books — shop it

over

-144

FanDuel

under

+127

DraftKings

Jake Ferguson

Receiving Yards

11.5market 50% over

we project20.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-112

FanDuel

Jake Ferguson

Receptions

3.5market 44% over2.4pp between books — shop it

over

+110

DraftKings

under

-132

FanDuel

Javonte Williams

Carries

18.5market 56% over

we project14.8/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-152

DraftKings

under

+110

DraftKings

Javonte Williams

Receiving Yards

18.5market 52% over3.6pp between books — shop it

over

-108

FanDuel

under

-105

DraftKings

Javonte Williams

Receptions

2.5market 53% over

over

-128

DraftKings

under

+100

DraftKings

Javonte Williams

Rushing Yards

53.5market 50% over

we project55.2/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-118

FanDuel

under

-112

FanDuel

Jaylin Noel

Receiving Yards

52.5market 34% over2.6pp between books — shop it

we project45.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+170

DraftKings

under

-205

FanDuel

Jaylin Noel

Receptions

1.5market 37% over

over

+150

DraftKings

under

-200

FanDuel

Ka'imi Fairbairn

Kicking Points

8.5market 45% over

over

+108

DraftKings

under

-139

DraftKings

Kayshon Boutte

Receiving Yards

23.5market 50% over

we project30.6/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Kayshon Boutte

Receptions

2.5market 39% over1.8pp between books — shop it

over

+154

FanDuel

under

-185

DraftKings

Kenny Clark

Sacks

0.5

over

+270

FanDuel

under

—

Logan Hall

Sacks

0.5

over

+370

FanDuel

under

—

Malachi Lawrence

Sacks

0.5

over

+310

FanDuel

under

—

Nico Collins

Receiving Yards

74.5market 50% over

we project83.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Nico Collins

Receptions

5.5market 49% over2.4pp between books — shop it

over

+102

FanDuel

under

-119

DraftKings

Quinnen Williams

Sacks

0.5

over

+200

FanDuel

under

—

Rashan Gary

Sacks

0.5

over

+124

FanDuel

under

—

Ryan Flournoy

Receiving Yards

33.5market 50% over

we project38.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Ryan Flournoy

Receptions

3.5market 42% over4.1pp between books — shop it

over

+120

DraftKings

under

-136

FanDuel

Sheldon Rankins

Sacks

0.5

over

+188

FanDuel

under

—

Von Miller

Sacks

0.5

over

+270

FanDuel

under

—

Will Anderson Jr.

Sacks

0.5

over

-188

FanDuel

under

—

Woody Marks

Carries

7.5market 53% over

we project8.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-132

DraftKings

under

-105

DraftKings

Woody Marks

Receiving Yards

0.5market 43% over4.8pp between books — shop it

over

+140

FanDuel

under

-156

DraftKings

Woody Marks

Receptions

1.5market 57% over4.4pp between books — shop it

over

-130

FanDuel

under

+121

DraftKings

Woody Marks

Rushing Yards

37.5market 50% over

we project29.8/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-110

FanDuel

under

-115

DraftKings

Xavier Hutchinson

Receiving Yards

22.5market 49% over

we project46.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-118

FanDuel

Xavier Hutchinson

Receptions

2.5market 57% over9.0pp between books — shop it

over

-108

FanDuel

under

+115

DraftKings

Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.