Jacksonville JaguarsatCincinnati Bengals

Final · Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17

Opened

-2.5

First seen Sep 24

Closed

+4.5

+7 since open

Total

39.5

Prices archived

172

26 spread · 17 total

Crossed 3 since opening

Where the best number is

CIN+4.5DraftKings

JAX-4.5DraftKings

Over39.5DraftKings

Under41.5FanDuel

Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

JAX

91.4%

CIN

8.6%

Teams the market priced at 90–95% won 44 of 46 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 4.2 points.

5.9%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.

Head to head

Trevor Lawrence · JAXQB Index componentsJoe Burrow · CIN

59 · B

Index

76 · A

28.6

Attempts / gm

37.8

6.5%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

4.5%

67.1%

Completion

QB Index · vs CIN

Trevor Lawrence

JAX · 5 games, 143 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

24th of 34

28.6 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 6.5% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

4th of 34

8.2 yards per attempt · 67.1% completions · 0.274 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

13th of 32

CIN has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 219 yards

The life of this number

Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record

Open

Opened -2.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 10 days before kickoff.

Move

7 reprices since, 13 points of movement in all. It closed +4.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -3.5 to +4.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.

15% 5+ days out85% Gameday

Biggest move

6 points at once — -3.5 to +2.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.

Crossed 3

-2.5 to -3.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 1 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.

Crossed 3

-3.5 to +2.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET — back through 3.

Crossed 3

+1.5 to +3.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 3 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record

Open

Opened 51.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.

Move

7 reprices since, 20 points of movement in all. It closed 39.5 — 12 points lower than the open. It ranged from 39.5 to 51.5 along the way, retracing 8 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.

20% 5+ days out80% Gameday

Biggest move

6 points at once — 48.5 to 42.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 4.5 covered 127 of 254 games.

The range covers a coin flip.

They won outright in 169 of 254.

The total

Totals of 39.5 went over 82 of 171 times.

The range covers a coin flip.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

Player props · 60

Arik Armstead

Sacks

0.5

over

+250

FanDuel

under

—

Bhayshul Tuten

Carries

15.5market 51% over

we project16.4/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Bhayshul Tuten

Receiving Yards

9.5market 38% over3.5pp between books — shop it

over

+168

FanDuel

under

-196

DraftKings

Bhayshul Tuten

Receptions

1.5market 39% over17.3pp between books — shop it

over

+140

DraftKings

under

+108

FanDuel

Bhayshul Tuten

Rushing Yards

63.5market 50% over

we project69.8/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-118

FanDuel

Boye Mafe

Sacks

0.5

over

+205

FanDuel

under

—

Brenton Strange

Receiving Yards

66.5market 51% over

we project47.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-120

DraftKings

under

-108

FanDuel

Brenton Strange

Receptions

3.5market 48% over

over

+102

FanDuel

under

-123

DraftKings

Brian Thomas Jr.

Receiving Yards

17.5market 45% over3.3pp between books — shop it

we project21.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+120

FanDuel

under

-141

DraftKings

Brian Thomas Jr.

Receptions

2.5market 47% over4.5pp between books — shop it

over

+120

FanDuel

under

-132

DraftKings

Cam Little

Kicking Points

7.5market 46% over

over

+103

DraftKings

under

-132

DraftKings

Cashius Howell

Sacks

0.5

over

+350

FanDuel

under

—

Chase Brown

Carries

11.5market 47% over

we project14.2/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

+100

DraftKings

under

-135

DraftKings

Chase Brown

Receiving Yards

89.5market 50% over44.9pp between books — shop it

over

+1100

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Chase Brown

Receptions

3.5market 44% over

over

+115

DraftKings

under

-146

FanDuel

Chase Brown

Rushing Yards

14.5market 51% over2.3pp between books — shop it

we project49.2/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Rushing Yards

14.5market 52% over

we project22.6/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-122

FanDuel

under

-105

DraftKings

Dennis Gardeck

Sacks

0.5

over

+320

FanDuel

under

—

Dexter Lawrence II

Sacks

0.5

over

+210

FanDuel

under

—

Dohnte Meyers

Receiving Yards

46.5market 50% over

we project28.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Dohnte Meyers

Receptions

2.5market 38% over

over

+148

DraftKings

under

-192

DraftKings

Drew Sample

Receiving Yards

0.5market 47% over17.2pp between books — shop it

over

+194

FanDuel

under

-132

DraftKings

Drew Sample

Receptions

1.5market 34% over8.3pp between books — shop it

over

+175

DraftKings

under

-166

FanDuel

Evan McPherson

Kicking Points

7.5market 55% over

over

-141

DraftKings

under

+109

DraftKings

Foyesade Oluokun

Sacks

0.5

over

+550

FanDuel

under

—

Ja'Marr Chase

Receiving Yards

81.5market 50% over

we project57.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Ja'Marr Chase

Receptions

7.5market 44% over1.7pp between books — shop it

over

+120

FanDuel

under

-143

DraftKings

Jakobi Meyers

Receiving Yards

40.5market 50% over

we project40.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-118

FanDuel

Jakobi Meyers

Receptions

3.5market 62% over10.1pp between books — shop it

over

-128

FanDuel

under

+145

DraftKings

Joe Burrow

Carries

2.5market 61% over

we project3.0/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

-192

DraftKings

under

+140

DraftKings

Joe Burrow

Completions

32.5market 51% over

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Joe Burrow

Interceptions

1.5market 31% over

over

+205

DraftKings

under

-286

DraftKings

Joe Burrow

Pass Attempts

43.5market 51% over

we project37.8/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-120

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Joe Burrow

Passing TDs

1.5market 63% over

over

-213

DraftKings

under

+164

FanDuel

Joe Burrow

Passing Yards

269.5market 50% over

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Joe Burrow

Rushing Yards

5.5market 47% over4.5pp between books — shop it

we project9.6/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

+120

FanDuel

under

-135

DraftKings

Jonathan Allen

Sacks

0.5

over

+225

FanDuel

under

—

Josh Cameron

Receiving Yards

29.5market 50% over

we project23.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-116

DraftKings

Josh Cameron

Receptions

1.5market 51% over17.4pp between books — shop it

over

+162

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Josh Hines-Allen

Sacks

0.5

over

-112

FanDuel

under

—

Mike Gesicki

Receiving Yards

28.5market 51% over1.8pp between books — shop it

we project39.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-108

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Mike Gesicki

Receptions

2.5market 49% over3.9pp between books — shop it

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-102

FanDuel

Myles Murphy

Sacks

0.5

over

+240

FanDuel

under

—

Parker Washington

Receiving Yards

75.5market 50% over

we project70.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Parker Washington

Receptions

5.5market 47% over

over

+106

FanDuel

under

-130

DraftKings

Ruke Orhorhoro

Sacks

0.5

over

+400

FanDuel

under

—

Samaje Perine

Receiving Yards

0.5market 47% over3.7pp between books — shop it

over

+116

FanDuel

under

-135

DraftKings

Samaje Perine

Receptions

1.5market 48% over

over

-102

FanDuel

under

-122

DraftKings

Samaje Perine

Rushing Yards

5.5market 51% over4.5pp between books — shop it

we project22.0/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

+100

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Tee Higgins

Receiving Yards

62.5market 50% over

we project84.6/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Tee Higgins

Receptions

4.5market 49% over

over

-106

FanDuel

under

-119

DraftKings

Travis Hunter

Receiving Yards

0.5market 40% over21.1pp between books — shop it

over

+370

DraftKings

under

-182

FanDuel

Travon Walker

Sacks

0.5

over

+116

FanDuel

under

—

Trevor Lawrence

Carries

1.5market 51% over

we project2.8/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Completions

18.5market 50% over

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-116

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Interceptions

0.5market 18% over

over

+425

DraftKings

under

-667

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Pass Attempts

25.5market 44% over

we project28.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

+110

DraftKings

under

-152

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Passing TDs

1.5market 41% over14.9pp between books — shop it

over

+125

DraftKings

under

+110

FanDuel

Trevor Lawrence

Passing Yards

279.5market 50% over

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-116

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Rushing Yards

0.5market 51% over

we project11.8/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.