Crossed 10 since opening1 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
CHI-13.5DraftKings
NYJ+14.5FanDuel
Over37.5DraftKings
Under38.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
NYJ
5.3%
CHI
94.7%
Teams the market priced at 90–95% won 44 of 46 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 4.2 points.
4.6%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.6%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Geno Smith · NYJQB Index componentsTyson Bagent · CHI
60 · B
Index
15 · F
29.4
Attempts / gm
21.3
9.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
5.9%
69.4%
Completion
QB Index · vs CHI
Geno Smith
NYJ · 5 games, 147 attempts
60
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
22nd of 34
29.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 9.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
14th of 34
7.4 yards per attempt · 69.4% completions · 0.054 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
2nd of 32
CHI has allowed 8.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 196 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record
Open
Opened -8.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.
Move
6 reprices since, 18 points of movement in all. It closed -13.5 — the favourite is 5 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -14.5 to -3 along the way, retracing 13 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.
33% 5+ days out67% Gameday
Biggest move
8 points at once — -6.5 to -14.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 3 PM ET.
Crossed 7
-8.5 to -3.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET — back through 7.
Crossed 7
-6.5 to -14.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 3 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Crossed 10
-6.5 to -14.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 3 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 11 prices on record
Open
Opened 45.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.
Move
10 reprices since, 14 points of movement in all. It closed 37.5 — 8 points lower than the open. It ranged from 37.5 to 45.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 1 PM ET.
29% 5+ days out14% 5–2 days out57% Gameday
Biggest move
3 points at once — 42.5 to 39.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 13.5 covered 22 of 61 games.
The range clears a coin flip.
They won outright in 50 of 61.
The total
Totals of 37.5 went over 101 of 189 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 47
Braelon Allen
Carries
16.5market 47% over
we project11.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Braelon Allen
Receiving Yards
7.5market 50% over
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Braelon Allen
Receptions
1.5market 57% over2.0pp between books — shop it
over
-148
FanDuel
under
+115
DraftKings
Braelon Allen
Rushing Yards
56.5market 50% over
we project47.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Cairo Santos
Kicking Points
7.5market 47% over
over
+101
DraftKings
under
-130
DraftKings
Cole Kmet
Receiving Yards
7.5market 47% over3.6pp between books — shop it
over
+110
FanDuel
under
-132
DraftKings
Cole Kmet
Receptions
1.5market 50% over10.2pp between books — shop it
over
+130
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Colston Loveland
Receiving Yards
39.5market 47% over
we project22.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-135
DraftKings
Colston Loveland
Receptions
3.5market 51% over6.1pp between books — shop it
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
D'Andre Swift
Carries
20.5market 49% over
we project15.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
D'Andre Swift
Receiving Yards
12.5market 51% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
D'Andre Swift
Receptions
2.5market 29% over9.4pp between books — shop it
over
+220
DraftKings
under
-198
FanDuel
D'Andre Swift
Rushing Yards
85.5market 50% over
we project70.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Garrett Wilson
Receiving Yards
73.5market 50% over
we project74.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Garrett Wilson
Receptions
6.5market 50% over3.2pp between books — shop it
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Completions
13.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Interceptions
0.5market 36% over
over
+160
DraftKings
under
-217
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Pass Attempts
24.5market 49% over
we project29.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Passing TDs
1.5market 38% over
over
+151
DraftKings
under
-196
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Passing Yards
227.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Rushing Yards
2.5market 51% over3.6pp between books — shop it
we project8.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Isaiah Davis
Receiving Yards
8.5market 51% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Isaiah Davis
Receptions
1.5market 31% over25.2pp between books — shop it
over
+295
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Isaiah Davis
Rushing Yards
21.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Isaiah Williams
Receiving Yards
21.5market 51% over
we project30.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Isaiah Williams
Receptions
2.5market 34% over19.5pp between books — shop it
over
+170
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Jason Sanders
Kicking Points
6.5market 46% over
over
+106
DraftKings
under
-137
DraftKings
Jeremy Ruckert
Receiving Yards
14.5market 51% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Jeremy Ruckert
Receptions
2.5market 38% over5.0pp between books — shop it
over
+147
DraftKings
under
-160
FanDuel
Kalif Raymond
Receiving Yards
6.5market 43% over5.2pp between books — shop it
we project45.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+142
FanDuel
under
-161
DraftKings
Kalif Raymond
Receptions
3.5market 44% over
over
+114
FanDuel
under
-145
DraftKings
Kenyon Sadiq
Receiving Yards
13.5market 50% over
we project29.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Kenyon Sadiq
Receptions
4.5market 44% over
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Kyle Monangai
Carries
21.5market 51% over
we project15.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Kyle Monangai
Receiving Yards
0.5market 25% over27.8pp between books — shop it
over
+360
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
Kyle Monangai
Receptions
0.5market 27% over42.5pp between books — shop it
over
+330
DraftKings
under
+142
FanDuel
Kyle Monangai
Rushing Yards
39.5market 50% over
we project81.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Luther Burden III
Receiving Yards
46.5market 51% over
we project53.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Luther Burden III
Receptions
4.5market 48% over2.7pp between books — shop it
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-122
DraftKings
Rome Odunze
Receiving Yards
94.5market 33% over4.5pp between books — shop it
we project54.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+182
FanDuel
under
-250
FanDuel
Rome Odunze
Receptions
2.5market 52% over
over
-120
FanDuel
under
-105
DraftKings
Tyson Bagent
Completions
24.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Tyson Bagent
Interceptions
1.5market 11% over
over
+750
DraftKings
under
-1429
DraftKings
Tyson Bagent
Pass Attempts
31.5market 58% over
we project21.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-167
DraftKings
under
+120
DraftKings
Tyson Bagent
Passing TDs
1.5market 43% over
over
+121
DraftKings
under
-156
DraftKings
Tyson Bagent
Passing Yards
200.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Tyson Bagent
Rushing Yards
3.5market 59% over4.9pp between books — shop it
we project6.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-140
FanDuel
under
+125
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
65.6%
7.4
Yards / att
6.4
200.0
Air yards / gm
144.3
0.054
EPA / dropback
-0.077
+2.6
CPOE
completion % over expected
+1.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 12.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5250.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs NYJ
Tyson Bagent
CHI · 3 games, 64 attempts
15
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
32nd of 34
21.3 attempts per game · team runs 71 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 5.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 34
6.4 yards per attempt · 65.6% completions · -0.077 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
29th of 32
NYJ has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 207 yards32 attempts × 6.4 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 25.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
100.5 yards in 1 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 4 days, then left it on Tue, Sep 29, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Garrett Wilson30.5% target share · 18.1 PPR last 4
Adonai Mitchell10.6% target share · 10.7 PPR last 2
Isaiah Williams9.9% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Luther Burden III21.7% target share · 11.6 PPR last 4
Rome Odunze18.0% target share · 8.8 PPR last 4
Kalif Raymond16.8% target share · 9 PPR last 4
Braelon Allen46.0% of team carries · 10.1 PPR last 4
Breece Hall41.1% of team carries · 14.2 PPR last 3
D'Andre Swift45.9% of team carries · 12.1 PPR last 4
Kyle Monangai35.3% of team carries · 14.8 PPR last 4
Kenyon Sadiq14.9% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Jeremy Ruckert5.7% target share · 6.3 PPR last 3
Mason Taylor4.3% target share · 3.6 PPR last 2
Colston Loveland14.3% target share · 6 PPR last 4
